539
FXUS64 KMRX 121934
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

Key Messages:

1. Mostly dry with below normal temperatures continuing.

Discussion:

We start the period with an area of surface high centered just to
our east/southeast.  After today`s melting with the slightly warmer
temperatures and sun, tonight will be cold again with temperatures
well below freezing and any lingering moisture on walkways and roads
is expected to re-freeze. Patches of black ice will be a concern
again heading into Monday morning.

A moisture starved cold front will swing through our area on Monday.
We will see an increase in clouds later tonight into Monday, but
right now moisture looks too limited for any measurable
precipitation.  However, there may be a few snow flurries mainly in
SW VA and the E Tn mountains during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

Key Messages:

1. Cold temperatures are expected into the middle of the week with
light snow possible in SW VA.

2. Warmer weather this weekend with widespread rain looking likely.

Discussion:

Fairly quiet synoptic pattern for the first half of the week ahead
of an incoming frontal system. A fast moving, but weak trough will
dive towards the southeast and help drive a cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the middle of the week. Models are
continuing to insist that this front will be cut off from moisture
leading to very little precipitation chances in our region. Best
chances to see some light flurries will be in southwest VA on Monday
night into Tuesday as the cold air runs up against the higher
terrain of the plateau and Appalachians and might be able to squeeze
out a bit of snow. However the trend has been drier and drier as the
system approaches, so accumulations still look unlikely at this
time. Cold overnight lows will likely be the main impact with temps
dropping into the teens each night Monday night through Thursday
morning. Luckily winds look to remain fairly light with this system
and the wind chill values aren`t much lower than the ambient
temperature.

Second half of the work week sees a quick warm up with mid level
ridging and surface high off to our south helping to bring up warmer
air from the south. By Friday we`ll be back up to right around
seasonal normals in the 40`s, which is going to feel really warm
with how cold it`s been this month. This warm air will precede a low
expected to move through the Tennesee Valley over the weekend. This
time with the temperatures being much warmer this is still looking
to be a predominantly all rain event beginning late Friday and
continuing through the weekend. Expect the heaviest rain to occur
Saturday afternoon into Sunday with an average QPF of around 1"
across the region. Once the main area of precipitation moves through
the backside of the low could see colder air and wintry precip wrap
around on Sunday. As the precipitation is coming to an end it could
be cold enough to switch over to snow in the higher elevations of
northeast TN and southwest VA. At this time it looks like we could
see upwards of an inch of snow in the mountains if this portion of
the forecast verifies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

VFR conditions expected for most of the period all sites, but
some MVFR level cigs look likely to arrive late in the period
mainly TYS and TRI. Also cannot rule out some fog toward sunrise,
but right now the probability of significant vsby reduction looks
too low to include.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             25  45  17  40 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  24  41  15  36 /   0  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       24  41  13  36 /   0  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              20  39  15  31 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...