Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 282353 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
753 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)...

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions with temperatures at to just a few degrees
above seasonal normals on Sunday.

Discussion:

Fairly quiet weather in place this short term period. Some lingering
cloud cover observed on visible satellite imagery should start to
clear out late this afternoon and into the evening as surface high
pressure shifts atop the forecast area. This is also leading to calm
conditions at the surface.

Aloft, an upper level low will dig into the western CONUS heading
into Sunday. Ridging spanning across the central United States will
respond by both amplifying and shifting eastward, leading to locally
increasing H5 heights. This will result in warming temperatures
Sunday, with highs generally at to a few degrees above seasonal
norms. Conditions will remain dry during this time as well. Lastly,
patchy fog is possible within river valleys tonight given subsidence
associated with the surface high pressure and clear skies/calm winds.

KS

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday Night)...

Key Messages:

1. Afternoon rain chances will be very low through mid week with
better rain/storm chances Thursday through Friday.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Eastern U.S. through
midweek. At the surface, high pressure over the Eastern U.S. will
weaken by Wednesday. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly
dry with very low rain chances. However, isolated afternoon showers
cannot be ruled out with abundant low level moisture and surface
heating present. With mostly sunny skies, temps will be above normal
with highs in the upper 80s and near 90 in the Tennessee Valley.

Late in the workweek, a broad trough will dip into the Ohio Valley.
A slow moving boundary will move through the Tennessee Valley
Thursday into Friday increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms particularly Thursday afternoon. This weak boundary
will likely bring scattered showers and thunderstorms again on
Friday afternoon.

McD

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

High pressure will build into the region overnight, eventually
leading to clear skies at all terminals later tonight. Still have
some BKN040-050 INVOF both KTYS and KTRI that should continue
through 04z to 06z before dissipating. Patchy fog will be possible
tonight at all terminals, but the best signal is at KTRI so will
include TEMPO IFR visibility restrictions there. Otherwise, light
winds through the period with FEW-SCT CU tomorrow afternoon.

CD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  87  65  89  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  86  63  88  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  85  62  87  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  84  59  87  61 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$


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