Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 250244
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
944 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The primary sw/ne oriented H3 jetmax continues to traverse the
region this evening ahead of a MidSouth H5 trough and associated
surface cyclone/front. With that, upper divergence will allow for
persistent sct/num showers through early morning before drier mid
level air advects into the region from the west, per latest WV
imagery. The front itself looks to push into the region
around/before sunrise with little fanfare as no real airmass
change will occur. All in all the current fcst looked pretty good,
with only minor tweaks to pops/temps made to align with recent
radar/obs trends.

CDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A mixture of MVFR/IFR, eventually lifting to low VFR at CHA/TYS
tomorrow while holding at MVFR for TRI. Abundant moisture and
upper jet support has allowed for widespread shra this afternoon
ahead of a cold front. The better jet energy is sliding east at
this time which will favor at least a narrow window of lowered
precipitation chances before ramping back up ahead of the front
through early morning. With that, cigs/visb will remain in the
MVFR/IFR range (lowest at CHA) through sunrise amidst light sly
winds. Winds look remain sly despite the fropa overnight as deeper
flow is swly, which also will favor continued saturation in the
llvs. Thus, did continue with MVFR cigs for all sites through
morning before raising to low VFR at CHA/TYS with peak mixing,
while holding MVFR at TRI.

CDG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             48  63  43  52  30 /  90  10  10  50  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  46  63  44  52  30 /  80  20  20  60  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       46  63  43  52  29 /  80  20  20  70  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              43  61  42  54  27 /  80  30  10  80  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



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