Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 052144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
244 PM MST Fri Mar 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...Today is the last day of fair weather for the
Northern Rockies. A weak cold front is still on track to push
through the region on Saturday. This front will cause widespread
precipitation with the mountains receiving a couple of inches of
new snow, while the valleys will mainly experience a rain/snow
mix. This front will be the start of the Northern Rockies becoming
more seasonal with cooler temperatures and periods of rain/snow
showers each day.

The shower activity will linger across northwest Montana on
Sunday. While late Monday into Tuesday, the models continue to
depict a weak circulation moving across central Idaho into
southwest Montana. The track of this storm would put a plume of
precipitation over the southern part of Idaho county and northern
Lemhi county into southwest Montana. The models are diverging on
the extent of how much snow will impact the area. Lost Trail Pass
could receive as little as an inch of new snow or upwards of 6
inches, so at this time confidence is low on how much of an impact
this system will have on the region.

A broad trough of low pressure will be over the western United
States for the latter part of the work week keeping temperatures
near to slightly below normal for this time of year. A few showers
could impact the higher terrain during the afternoon hours, but
any snow accumulations should be minimal.


.AVIATION...Fair flying conditions will persist for another 18 to
20 hours. A weak cold front will begin to make its way into the
Northern Rockies by late Saturday morning through the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, the cloud ceilings will steadily lower during
the morning hours. This front will cause widespread showers which
will reduce the visibility at times.



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