Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 301049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
449 AM MDT Sat May 30 2020

.DISCUSSION...Another very warm day is anticipated for the
Northern Rockies today. Temperatures should be around 20 degrees
above seasonal normals, as many locations will experience their
warmest day so far this year. This warmth will cause unstable
conditions this afternoon and evening. If any storms that develop
could become quite strong and potentially even severe. Some high
resolution models are showing a few storms developing the
Sapphire and Anaconda ranges. These storms should track northward
up into the Bob Marshall Wilderness. The biggest threat from these
storms will be wind, hail and heavy rain.

A upper level disturbance is still expected to track over
northwest Montana late tonight into Sunday morning. This feature
will bring widespread precipitation with areas along the Canadian
border potentially receive a decent amount of rainfall.

The upper level flow will be westerly through the work week.
A weak disturbance will track across the Northern Rockies late
Monday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures should be above normal during the week. Models are
trending towards a cooler and showery weekend.


.AVIATION...Another day of the ridge being the dominant feature,
but unstable conditions are expected this afternoon and evening.
This instability will allow for the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms could become
quite strong. KSMN, KMSO and KBTM have the best chance of
experiencing convection this afternoon and evening. These storms
will be capable of gusty and erratic winds, hail and heavy rain.
Later tonight into Sunday morning precipitation will be moving
into northwest Montana.



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