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000
FXUS63 KOAX 051122
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
622 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Key Messages:

 - Drier weather expected today and Tuesday, with low shower and
   thunderstorm chances restricted to closer to the MO/KS state
   lines today and western Iowa on Tuesday.

 - A backdoor cold front will bring shower chances back to the
   region starting on Wednesday, and slightly cooler temperatures
   Thursday through the weekend.

We remain in a stubborn pattern with easterly flow and high
pressure to our north today. One change we see today is the high
to our north starts to spill south over eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa, leading to more subsidence decreasing potential for
shower and thunderstorm activity. Wouldn`t be surprised if we saw
an isolated shower/storm or two near the KS/MO state lines, but
potential as you go north drops to less than 15 percent.
Temperatures will stay pretty similar to what we`ve seen the last
several days, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

Tuesday we start to see the ridge/high pressure center start to
retreat westward, which will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
back for our western Iowa counties, but eastern Nebraska should
remain dry. As this ridge continues to shift westward, Wednesday
we see a return of shower and thunderstorm chances across all of
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

Models show a backdoor cold front moving through from the east
Wednesday night into early Thursday which could bring a line of
scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight. Cooler air behind
the front will lead to high temperatures on Thursday only getting
into the low-to-mid 80s. A confluent zone hangs around central and
eastern Nebraska on Thursday keeping chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend, models keep the Omega Block in place,
though just to our west, allowing for continuing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Now on the east side of the ridge, we
do see a slightly cooler air mass in place through the weekend,
which will keep daytime highs down in the low-to-mid 80s. Models
try to break down the Omega Block pattern early next week, but
timing may continue to shift for the breakdown of this pattern as
they can be particularly stubborn. Once this pattern does break
down, however, model consensus suggests we may move into a
southwesterly flow regime which could put the central CONUS into a
more active pattern for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Another morning of slight haze across the area has kicked off,
with winds our of the north or northeast this morning that should
turn easterly to slightly southeasterly this afternoon. Like the
past several days, we`ll likely have to dodge a few showers or
storms, that would last around 30 minutes before moving out,
generally from east to west. The most likely time for any showers
or storms looks to be around 4 or 5 PM, but they could occur a
couple of hours early as well.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Petersen