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000
FXUS63 KOAX 031119
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Today:

Tuesday was officially the hottest day of 2020 with
temperatures topping out 95-100 in most locations. Wayne, Nebraska
was the hot spot today topping out at 100 degrees. A cold front
is currently draped through southeast nebraska and is expected to
stall out near the Kansas/Nebraska border today. Thankfully this
front will help to keep temperatures a bit cooler today with highs
of 85 to 90 degrees expected. As far as thunderstorm chances
today, hot temperatures south of the front will allow for CAPE
values above 3000 j/kg. This may be sufficient to spark some
severe thunderstorms near the KS border. The determining factor
will be how far south the front is able to progress before storms
ignite. Most of the CAMs have come to agreement that the front
will be across northern kansas and storms will remain south of our
area. Therefore, expect any storms this afternoon to stay south
of our border. Later in the evening, the front is expect to lift
north back into the area and with it, ample instability. Also
during the day Wednesday an upper level short wave will swing into
the area. This and the lingering front will provide enough lift
to ignite some strong to severe storms across south central
nebraska and track east into southeast Nebraska overnight into
Thursday morning. While there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
with Wednesday night storms, any storms that develop could be
strong to severe, with the aid of the low level jet which will
nose into our area overnight. Strong winds and large hail would be
the main threats.

Thursday:

Some dry time is expected on Thursday morning, however this may be
short lived. Another  wave is expected to pulse through the area.
Moderate amounts of instability (~2000 k/Kg of CAPE) will be
present across the area thursday afternoon. Bulk shear of 35-40
knots will also be present at the disturbance moves through.
Storms may ignite in central nebraska and move east into the
evening. Some storms may be strong to severe with hail and strong
winds possible. Additional chances for thunderstorms will linger
into Friday as another wave ripples though the upper level flow.

Saturday and beyond:

Saturday and Sunday should be mainly dry outside of some small
chances as a few short wave move through the upper level flow. The
ridge will also build back into the are over the weekend with
temperatures approaching 90 each day. The ridge will finally begin
to shift out of the area early next week as a trough begins to
shift toward the area. A few disturbances are expected Monday
into Wednesday which could cause additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. A weak surface front is in the process of advancing
through the area this morning, and has moved through all three
terminal locations as of 6 AM. Light north winds should gradually
become east and then southeast later today. An area of light
showers currently over north-central NE could approach KOFK late
this morning. Confidence in that activity holding together remains
low, so will not include in the forecast. Otherwise, a cluster of
storms is expected to develop over central NE late this afternoon
into evening and subsequently track southeast. KOFK and KLNK
would be most likely to be affected where we have included PROB30
groups.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Mead