363
FXUS63 KOAX 121914
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
214 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances return Saturday morning with a 30-40%
  chance from 3 to 10 AM. Additional storms are expected in the
  afternoon and evening, especially in southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa, where a few severe storms will be possible.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with
  temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Next chance for rain appears to be Wednesday with much
  uncertainty in the forecast details beyond Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features slightly northwesterly
flow across the CONUS, with a front draped across the Ohio River
Valley. Across central Colorado, a surface low is taking shape,
picking up the western end of the aforementioned front and
helping turn winds southerly to its east. Those southerlies are
gradually building into the forecast area this afternoon, with
generally quiet weather aside from some slight gustiness to
20-25 mph. Highs this afternoon will top out in the mid-to-upper
80s, lingering some of those winds into the evening/overnight.

This evening, a cold front will continue its advance from the High
Plains into northeast Nebraska, stalling out a bit overnight as the
low-level jet ramps upwards. Working in tandem with the increasing
jet, the surface low will work to transport moisture most
efficiently closer to its location -- from central Kansas into
central Nebraska. Convergence along the northern end of that jet
will work to initiate weaker shower activity across central Nebraska
that will carry into northeast Nebraska. Since the extended runs of
the CAMs yesterday, the 16z HRRR has the nose low-level jet placed
about 80 miles to the northwest, shifting much of that activity
that is expected to occur closer to 4 AM onwards closer to the
NE/SD border locally.

Nailing down this activity will be the key for identifying how much
of eastern Nebraska and Iowa will see storms, in addition to
the ceiling that those storms will eventually have.

The nuts and bolts of tomorrow afternoon and evening are all
revolving around a southeasterly-shifting baroclinic zone, where
sufficient shear and instability exist for supercells. Bulk shear
vectors will largely be in-line with the frontal surface, making
upscale growth quick. Considerable uncertainty regarding the morning
convection, specifically as to how long it lingers over
northeast/eastern Nebraska. One scenario would be for convection to
fester across the eastern portion of the state, keeping cloud debris
into the morning hours that would limit the potential
destabilization, shunting the severe environment to the
southeast -- well southeast of Interstate 80. The other scenario
limits the amount of storm activity during the morning hours,
allowing full destabilization and initiation along the frontal
boundary near to just northeast of Interstate 80. Either
scenario brings potential for all hazards, going from initially
discrete storms to larger MCS structures as things grow together
and to the southeast. By 8 PM, storm activity will have pushed
to the southeast of the area, leaving us with cooler northerly
winds that take us into next week.

Sunday and Beyond:

Sunday through the work week starts us out cooler but gradually
warms us back into feeling like summer (mid/upper 80s). As the
temperatures warm back up, so too will return increasing chances for
strong to severe weather convection develops across the southern
periphery of the upper-level jet streak.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with
westerly winds becoming increasingly widespread initially before
southerly winds take hold. Overnight, low-level wind shear won`t
be too far off the northwest, while gusts to 15-20 kts continue
that gradually tapering off by tomorrow morning. There is an
increasing chance (45%) for scattered storms to occur during a
2 hour window at KOFK around 10-12z. From there, a wind shift
will push towards the area from the northwest that will also
bring shower and storm chances (30-40%) to KOMA during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen