049
FXUS63 KOAX 191043
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
543 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are possible this evening into early Friday
  morning, with chances currently for any to develop being
  15-30%, with an isolated storm or two being capable of
  marginally severe wind and hail.

- First dangerous heat event of the year for the forecast area
  expected from Friday through Sunday. An Extreme Heat Watch is
  in effect from 11 am Friday through 9 pm Sunday.

-There is increasing confidence for a rainy pattern to arrive
 Monday and last through much of the work week. Heavy rain and
 flooding will increase in likelihood as storms track over the
 same areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning features the exiting trough
that brought yesterday`s rain and storm chance centered over the
Great Lakes region while the influence of a mid/upper ridge
continues to increase its influence over the western half of the
CONUS. Calm winds this morning and clear skies have allowed for
temperatures to cool into the lower 60s and upper 50s, with
areas of fog developing across southwest Iowa and northeast
Nebraska. Trends will be monitored closely this morning for how
long these areas of fog persist, as none yet have been able to
last for an appreciable amount of time. Fog should begin to
dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning, giving way to
increasingly southerly winds and weak gusts to 20-25 mph this
afternoon while highs reach the low 90s. A weak mid/upper wave
is expected to ride the northeast end of the ridge and glance
the forecast area and help force a few showers and thunderstorms
across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Timing of the wave
and resultant convection largely elevated at 850-750 mb, with
some slight convergence on the developing LLJ serving as our
best bet to see storms. We`ll have a good amount of instability
and effective shear closer to 20-30 kts, allowing for marginally
severe potential with the strongest storms (only a 5-15%
chance) this evening into the overnight hours.

Friday through Sunday:

The primary concern of the forecast period continues to be
dangerously hot conditions that are set to arrive Friday and last
through Sunday and partially into Monday for southeastern
portions of the forecast area. This all will be driven by a
mid/upper ridge translating across the forecast area, bringing
with it a potent low- level thermal ridge and gusty conditions.
Highs are still on the conservative side, but still bring triple
digits to the Omaha metro Friday through Sunday, and as
confidence increases in those higher end numbers, don`t be
surprised to see them increase another couple degrees by the
time we get closer to each day. The one record within striking
distance at this time is 100 degrees on Sunday for the Omaha
Metro; one that dates back to 1930. Southerly gusts of 30-40 mph
will only join the 100-110 degree heat indices to make for
miserable conditions for those outside. Little relief is
expected overnight during the period, with lows never crossing
into the lower 70s, increasing vulnerability for those without
indoor air conditioning. A few chances at rain may materialize
in the general vicinity (like the High Plains or north in the
stronger mid/upper flow), but the current forecast keeps us
rather dry until increased focus for ascent arrives overnight
Sunday into Monday in the form of a boundary/front. An Extreme
Heat Watch is currently in place Friday through Sunday,
including the overnight hours.

Monday and Beyond:

For the upcoming work week, the mid/upper pattern is expected to
progress a seasonably deep trough to the western third of the CONUS,
with the aforementioned front expected to stall out and bisect
the forecast area based on most recent model runs. Going forward
through the week, the ridge that brought our heat is expected
to stall and block over the eastern third of the CONUS, keeping
persistent forcing over the forecast area and signal for a
potentially wet pattern. Precipitable water values of 1.75-1.9"
are indicated by the larger ensemble suite, joining the
persistent forcing in ratcheting up heavy rain and flooding
potential through the first half of the week. This signal does
decrease through the latter half of the work week, with part of
that owing to increasing model spread and uncertainty for how
long that boundary can remain entrenched over the area. Amounts
remain murky this far out, but it does seem clear that we`ll go
quite quickly from wanting clouds to break up the heat, to
wanting some peeks at sunshine next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Patchy fog has continued through much of the early hours today,
though not at any of the terminals, with any visibility
reductions expected to dissipate by 13/14z, with southerly
winds expected to increase through the morning, with gusts
developing this afternoon to 20-24 kts that will linger into the
overnight hours. A few showers are possible late this evening
into the overnight hours, but chances are not high enough (~20%
chance) to include in the TAFs at this time. What is more
certain is that very strong winds are expected to develop late
this evening and last through the night, having speeds of up to
60 kts at FL019 and resulting in low-level wind shear.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Extreme Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
IA...Extreme Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen