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000
FXUS63 KOAX 121716
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1216 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

Today through Friday Morning:
A surface high drifting slowly south southeast across the northern
Plains will help lead to clear skies and mostly calm winds today.
Winds will become predominately southerly over the day as the high
pressure system moves farther south. Weak warm air advection will
lead to an increase in temperatures and precipitable over the
next few days. Expect high temperatures in the mid 60s today.
Increased dew points, cloud cover, and speeds should keep
overnight low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s, thus a frost
advisory is not expected.

Ridging in the mid-levels and continued southerly flow should
allow for temperatures to reach the upper 60s Thursday. A couple
of weak shortwave impulses will provide a some chances for rain
on Thursday. The first of which may provide some rain in northeast
Nebraska in the morning hours. Rainfall would be light with
amounts less than a tenth of an inch expected. The second impulse
is forecasted to move through late Thursday into Friday morning.
It will have the support of the low level jet which could lead to
increased precipitation amounts and some rumbles of thunder.
Rainfall amounts up to half an inch are expected with this second
wave.

Friday Day through Tuesday:
High temperatures through this period are expected to be at or
above 70 degrees for most of the forecast area. Additional weak
shortwave impulses embedded in the upper level flow will provide a
few chances for rain over the weekend. Though the rain chances
seem high for basically the entire period, don`t expect the
weekend to be a wash out. The high chances are partially due to
lack of model agreement and uncertainty of the strongest forcing
for lift. Severe weather isn`t expected to be a major threat over
this period. Isolated storms in southern Nebraska cannot be ruled
out Saturday night. Though, the best ingredients for stronger
storms are expected to remain south of the forecast area in Kansas
and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed May 12 2021

VFR conditions through the period. There could be scattered at
KOFK 12-18z. Otherwise, south southeasterly winds 9 to 11 knots at
TAF issuance. And additional gusts could develop at KOFK late in
the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...DeWald