524
FXUS63 KOAX 131053
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and humid through Tuesday.

- There is a 20% chance of storms in northeast Nebraska this
  afternoon. If they develop, some could be strong to severe
  (5-10% chance), with damaging winds and hail the primary
  hazards.

- Potential exists for repeated rounds of storms beginning as
  early as Tuesday afternoon, but questions remain on exact
  timing. If places do see multiple rounds of storms, flooding
  could become a concern again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Very quiet across the region early this morning with surface
high pressure centered over the NE/KS/IA/MO border area. Will
need to keep an eye on fog development over the next several
hours with dewpoint depressions generally 5 degrees or less,
model soundings revealing a fairly deep light wind layer,
skies remaining mostly clear, and a few obs already showing
visibility reductions. Shortly after sunrise, could see a few
sprinkles develop with guidance showing some weak low to mid-
level frontogenesis and modest moisture transport pointing into
eastern NE. However, model soundings do stay fairly dry, so
anything that does develop would likely be pretty spotty and
rain may not even reach the ground.

For this afternoon, guidance is in good agreement of a weak
surface boundary currently over the western Dakotas pushing into
northeast NE. Ahead of the boundary, dewpoints look to climb
into at least the mid to upper 60s with temperatures in the mid
80s to lower 90s. This will help to yield some decent
instability with HREF mean MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range, though modest mid-level lapse rates will be somewhat
limiting. Still, most CAMs do indicate at least spotty storm
development in northeast NE by 3-5 PM (20% chance). In addition,
hodographs are actually fairly long (30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear)
with decent low-level curvature, so could actually see some
supercells if storms are able to fire. Therefore, can`t rule out
some strong to isolated severe storms, with hail and damaging
winds being the main threats (5-10% chance).

Monday should be quiet, but warm as zonal flow sets up. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid
60s to lower 70s helping to make it feel extra sticky. By Monday
night, mid- level troughing will start to dig into the northern
CONUS with a surface cold front progressing southward through
the Dakotas during the day Tuesday. Unfortunately there remains
a decent amount of spread on when the front and associated
showers and storms will push into the forecast area, with
solutions ranging from Tuesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon.
In addition, there is spread on how long the front lingers in
the area with some guidance suggesting it quickly pushes south
and we dry out by Thursday while other guidance gives us a few
additional rounds of precip. Regarding severe weather chances in
this timeframe, really the biggest concern is probably heavy
rain/flooding, as it does look like we`ll get at least 2 rounds
of storms with potential for that rain to fall on fairly
saturated soil. That said, there will also likely be at least a
small risk of other severe weather hazards when the front first
pushes in. For what it`s worth 13.00Z GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all
hint at a potential MCS moving through Tuesday evening with a
decent environment in place for some strong winds. But again,
there remains quite a bit of spread and there are lots of
details to work out in the next couple days.

Once the front does pass through, we`ll cool down for a couple
days with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s (coolest day likely on
Thursday). However, guidance suggests we`ll start to warm back
up for the end of the work week and heading into the weekend.
There will also be additional rain chances with various bits of
shortwave energy sliding through.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Patchy fog has developed this morning, but should dissipate
early in the period. Confidence is low in it impacting any TAF
site, but OMA is most likely to see anything so included 4SM
TEMPO for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are favored thereafter
with some passing clouds around 3500-6000 ft agl today and
southerly winds mostly under 10 kts. Can`t completely rule out
a spotty shower/storm moving through OFK this afternoon, but
only give it a 15-20% chance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA