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000
FXUS63 KOAX 291701
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1201 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Updated the forecast earlier in the morning to add a wind advisory
and red flag warnings for a few counties in extreme northeast NE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Today through Thursday

A boundary, which had stalled across the forecast area overnight,
will lift north through northeast Nebraska early this morning.
Southerly winds will increase behind it`s passage, becoming gusty by
around 9 AM this morning. Wind speeds will increase to 15 to 25 kts
over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.  Highest winds will be over
northeast Nebraska, where gusts could occasionally reach 35-40 kts.
While a Wind Advisory was considered, it looks like we will be just
shy of criteria.

The gusty winds will also be accompanied by low relative humidity,
which is a recipe for High Fire Danger.  Worst conditions, within
our forecast area will be areas north of a Columbus to Wayne line,
where RH will dip into the low to mid 20s and winds will be at their
peak. Farther to our west, over north-central Nebraska, Critical Fire
weather conditions have been noted on the SPC Fire Weather Outlook.
One saving grace we do have, in addition to borderline RH values, is
the fact that vegetation is fairly green. Therefore, we will hold
off on issuing a Red Flag Warning for now.

High temperatures will top out in the 90s Wednesday and Thursday,
but with the low RH, thankfully it will be a dry heat.

A weak shortwave, rippling out of the Rockies, could provide the
forcing for a few showers along the NE/SD  border.  While a few of
these could sneak into far northeast Nebraska around midnight
Wednesday night, it looks like dry air would keep precipitation from
reaching the surface.

The majority of Thursday is expected to remain dry before the
passage of a cold front brings increasing chances for showers and
storms Thursday evening through Thursday night. Modest CAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg, 20-30 kts of shear, and relatively steep lapse rates
will contribute to a Marginal Risk of strong to severe storms
Thursday afternoon and evening, as noted in the SPC Outlook.

Friday and Beyond

A more active pattern looks to continue as we approach the holiday
weekend. The ECMWF still remains the outlier with more
precipitation, but nearly all of the longer range models indicate
off and on showers and thunderstorms through early next week.
Confidence in timing and placement of precipitation remains fairly
low at this time, so will maintain the Slight to Chance POPs from
NBM through the 4th of July and into the middle of next week.
Temperatures will remain warm through Independence Day, with
forecast highs around 90 degrees Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

VFR conditions through the period with winds the primary concerns.
South southwest winds at 17 to 32 knots at TAF issuance, with the
strongest wind gusts at KOFK. LLWS develops overnight 02-15z with
winds at 2000` from the southwest at 45-50 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-016.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012.

IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DeWald
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...DeWald