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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190448
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1148 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

The main forecast concerns are temperatures the next few days and
increasing potential for grass fires, especially on Saturday.

Instability showers had developed over past of the area this
afternoon, about as expected. Echo tops have been mostly below 25K
feet so lightning has been very limited in our area. These
showers and their associated cloud cover, should decrease this
evening. A few of the high resolution convection allowing models
to linger isolated echoes longer than 9 or 10 pm, but that does
not seem likely. Otherwise north/northwest winds will diminish the
next 12 hours as a ridge of high pressure at the surface builds
in from the northwest later tonight into Friday. High temperatures
Friday afternoon should reach into the 60s.

Surface ridge axis builds off to the southeast Friday night, with
our winds turning to the southwest. This will keep temperatures a
little warmer Friday night, giving us a good head start for a warm
day Saturday. Expect highs Saturday to reach 75 to 80 at most
spots, with lower 80s in northeast NE ahead of the next cold
front. With brisk south/southwest winds, there will be increasing
fire danger for areas with dry grass. Some road sides and other
short grass areas have started to green up a bit, but taller grass
is still quite dry. Will keep an eye on this but right now it
appears RH values will mostly stay above 25 percent.

The chance for showers will start to a bit by Sunday, mainly for
northeast NE. This would be mostly behind (northwest of) the slow
moving cold front. Highs Sunday should range from the 60s in
northeast NE to 70s in southeast NE and southwest IA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

At the start of this period, we expect a weak closed low to be
located back over UT, with west/southwest mid level flow in place
across the region. There is a fair amount of model spread, but
expect the general trend to be for somewhat unsettled weather from
Sunday night into mid week. None of these days look like complete
washouts at this time, but there should be at least some chance of
showers or isolated thunderstorms. Look for high temperatures
mostly in the 60s from Monday through Wednesday, then possibly
upper 60s and lower 70s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

VFR conditions under mainly clear skies are forecast through
Friday evening. North winds under 12kt should persist through the
day before turning to the south after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Dergan