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000
FXUS63 KOAX 072321
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
521 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

.Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a shortwave trough traversing
eastward out of the Northern Plains, taking with it the high
clouds that were over the area this morning. Gusting winds
ranging from 25 to 35 kts and low relative humidities have been
combining to aid in the spread of fires across much of the Central
Plains, with several hot spots identifiable from GOES channel 7
imagery. These gusting winds are expected to continue through the
late afternoon and die down around sunset when surface decoupling
occurs.

.Monday and Tuesday:

Another shortwave pulse is expected to pass over the area late
Monday, bringing with it some cloud cover that could lower the
amount of daytime mixing compared to what we have seen as of late.
Wind gusts during the afternoon could reach near 30 mph as strong
low-level winds ramp up, but will similarly be lesser in strength
compared to todays. Nevertheless, strong southerly flow continues,
forcing warm temperatures in the local area into Tuesday.
Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday are currently on pace to break
record for warmest minimum temperatures across the area.

The main concern for Tuesday is a deepening surface low on the lee
of the Rockies that evening. Strong moisture advection is expected
to occur and aid in chances for some thunderstorm development as
the nocturnal low-level jet ramps up late Tuesday. The one caveat
included with these chances is the presence of a capping layer
that is shown in model soundings that puts a damper on overall
thunderstorm chances.

.Wednesday and Thursday:

Current model runs are in generally good agreement that the
aforementioned lee surface low should pass through the middle of
eastern Nebraska Wednesday, pushing the better precipitation
chances north and east of the area into SD/central IA. As the cold
front with this system advances southeastward across the CWA,
precipitation chances are expected to continue through Thursday
morning with the main focus for rain being in Missouri. PWats jump
up to over an inch in that area and with the frontal zone sliding
down there, concerns for heavy rain there arise.

.Saturday and Sunday:

By next weekend, model guidance diverges with the handling of a
closed mid/upper low advancing eastward from the western US. While
much will remain to be seen in terms of how that low will evolve
in the guidance as we get closer, signs for a strong system are
there for the weekend/early work week. In the meantime, confidence
will remain low until model guidance begins tightening up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Main concern will again be winds. While there still are some gusts
at KLNK/KOMA, they should diminish by TAF effective time at 00Z.
Some LLWS could again impact KLNK 04-09z and KOMA 04-11z with
winds around 1500` from 220 at 43 knots. Gusty winds up to 18
knots could redevelop at KOFK/KLNK by 19z as boundary layer mixes
out once again. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for NEZ067-068-
     088>093.

IA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...DeWald