


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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049 FXUS63 KOAX 191043 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 543 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms are possible this evening into early Friday morning, with chances currently for any to develop being 15-30%, with an isolated storm or two being capable of marginally severe wind and hail. - First dangerous heat event of the year for the forecast area expected from Friday through Sunday. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect from 11 am Friday through 9 pm Sunday. -There is increasing confidence for a rainy pattern to arrive Monday and last through much of the work week. Heavy rain and flooding will increase in likelihood as storms track over the same areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Today: Water vapor imagery this morning features the exiting trough that brought yesterday`s rain and storm chance centered over the Great Lakes region while the influence of a mid/upper ridge continues to increase its influence over the western half of the CONUS. Calm winds this morning and clear skies have allowed for temperatures to cool into the lower 60s and upper 50s, with areas of fog developing across southwest Iowa and northeast Nebraska. Trends will be monitored closely this morning for how long these areas of fog persist, as none yet have been able to last for an appreciable amount of time. Fog should begin to dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning, giving way to increasingly southerly winds and weak gusts to 20-25 mph this afternoon while highs reach the low 90s. A weak mid/upper wave is expected to ride the northeast end of the ridge and glance the forecast area and help force a few showers and thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Timing of the wave and resultant convection largely elevated at 850-750 mb, with some slight convergence on the developing LLJ serving as our best bet to see storms. We`ll have a good amount of instability and effective shear closer to 20-30 kts, allowing for marginally severe potential with the strongest storms (only a 5-15% chance) this evening into the overnight hours. Friday through Sunday: The primary concern of the forecast period continues to be dangerously hot conditions that are set to arrive Friday and last through Sunday and partially into Monday for southeastern portions of the forecast area. This all will be driven by a mid/upper ridge translating across the forecast area, bringing with it a potent low- level thermal ridge and gusty conditions. Highs are still on the conservative side, but still bring triple digits to the Omaha metro Friday through Sunday, and as confidence increases in those higher end numbers, don`t be surprised to see them increase another couple degrees by the time we get closer to each day. The one record within striking distance at this time is 100 degrees on Sunday for the Omaha Metro; one that dates back to 1930. Southerly gusts of 30-40 mph will only join the 100-110 degree heat indices to make for miserable conditions for those outside. Little relief is expected overnight during the period, with lows never crossing into the lower 70s, increasing vulnerability for those without indoor air conditioning. A few chances at rain may materialize in the general vicinity (like the High Plains or north in the stronger mid/upper flow), but the current forecast keeps us rather dry until increased focus for ascent arrives overnight Sunday into Monday in the form of a boundary/front. An Extreme Heat Watch is currently in place Friday through Sunday, including the overnight hours. Monday and Beyond: For the upcoming work week, the mid/upper pattern is expected to progress a seasonably deep trough to the western third of the CONUS, with the aforementioned front expected to stall out and bisect the forecast area based on most recent model runs. Going forward through the week, the ridge that brought our heat is expected to stall and block over the eastern third of the CONUS, keeping persistent forcing over the forecast area and signal for a potentially wet pattern. Precipitable water values of 1.75-1.9" are indicated by the larger ensemble suite, joining the persistent forcing in ratcheting up heavy rain and flooding potential through the first half of the week. This signal does decrease through the latter half of the work week, with part of that owing to increasing model spread and uncertainty for how long that boundary can remain entrenched over the area. Amounts remain murky this far out, but it does seem clear that we`ll go quite quickly from wanting clouds to break up the heat, to wanting some peeks at sunshine next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Patchy fog has continued through much of the early hours today, though not at any of the terminals, with any visibility reductions expected to dissipate by 13/14z, with southerly winds expected to increase through the morning, with gusts developing this afternoon to 20-24 kts that will linger into the overnight hours. A few showers are possible late this evening into the overnight hours, but chances are not high enough (~20% chance) to include in the TAFs at this time. What is more certain is that very strong winds are expected to develop late this evening and last through the night, having speeds of up to 60 kts at FL019 and resulting in low-level wind shear. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Extreme Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068- 078-088>093. IA...Extreme Heat Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen