Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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079
FXUS61 KOKX 021950
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through Sunday and moves
off the New England coast Sunday night into Monday. A warm front
will pass to the north on Tuesday. A weakening cold front will
approach on Wednesday and stall to the south Thursday and Friday
as high pressure builds to the north.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains firmly in place tonight into tomorrow with a
strengthening ridge aloft.

Clear skies under light northerly flow tonight will lead to cold low
temperatures. Areas of frost appears likely for most of the area.
Frosty Advisories have been issued for areas likely to experience
frost with the exception of interior locations, since their growing
season has now ended.

Overnight lows will be in the upper-20s to lower-30s for interior
locations and the LI Pine Barrens. The rest of the area will cool
into the mid/upper-30s except for Nassau county and the NYC metro
which will only cool into the low/mid-40s.

Highs on Sunday will remain cool in the mid-50s, supported under a
light northerly flow. Sunshine will stick around all day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night, the ridge aloft begins to shift to our east as
surface high pressure slowly moves into New England. Cloud cover
and dewpoints will slowly begin to increase towards daybreak as
onshore flow returns due to high pressure moving northeast.
Northerly flow should keep us dry and cool for the majority of
the night with Sunday night lows around the same as they were
Saturday night. Areas of frost for large portions of the area
are possible again Sunday night.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Unseasonable warmth Tue-Thu.

* Mainly dry through the period.

A 1035 mb sfc high will move off the New England coast on Mon,
setting up as a Bermuda high off the Mid Atlantic and then SE coasts
Tue through Thu as a large upper ridge build over the eastern
States, The upper ridge will flatten on Thu, with a more WNW zonal
flow aloft setting up for late week as an upper trough moves across
Hudson Bay and Quebec, and as a large closed low moves slowly out of
the Four Corners region toward the central Plains. Fcst also has
slight chance PoP for Thu afternoon/night with the front stalling
not too far off to the south.

Unseasonable warmth expected for the mid week period especially on
Wed, when temps may again rise well into the 70s, possibly to near
80 in parts of NE NJ. The weakening cold front moving through Wed
night will only put a dent in the warmth on Thu, with high temps
still either side of 70, then progressively cooler wx (with temps
still above normal) expected thereafter as high pressure beneath the
confluence of nrn/srn streams over the nrn Plains and upper Great
Lakes builds toward the area.

GFS brings a warm front up toward the area next Sat. This may be a
bit on the fast side, with the area still underneath the confluence
zone between the upper trough over ern Canada and upper ridging off
the SE coast, and the GFS ejecting mid level energy out of the
Plains closed low too quickly, so fcst only has slight chance PoP
for that time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in through Sunday.

VFR thru the TAF period with mainly SKC.

NW/N winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to the upper teens.
Winds then decrease after 22Z below 10 kt, but stay out of the N.
Winds shift more to the N then NE on Sunday, but should remain less
than 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts in the upper teens possible through around 22Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt.

Wed-Thu: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers. SW winds G20kt on
Wednesday, diminishing into Thursday.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Under high pressure, winds and seas remain below SCA criteria
tonight through Monday.

SCA cond are possible on the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet Tue night-
Wed as SW flow increases to near 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, and
seas build to 5-6 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern will
continue under high pressure this weekend leading to lingering fire
weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ104-106-108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/BR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR