Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 190220
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1020 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south of the region this evening. High
pressure then ridges down southeastern Canada tonight through
Wednesday night. High pressure passes east Thursday and Friday
as low pressure moves into Canada. Warm front passes to the
northwest Friday, followed by a cold front Saturday. The front
settles to the south into early next week as high pressure
builds to the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Precipitation has largely ended for the area as the cold front
has shifted well offshore. Although dew points remain somewhat
high, building high pressure into the area will continue cold
and dry air advection into the night. Any patchy fog that is
ongoing will likely dissipate prior to sunrise in response.

The pressure gradient begins to strengthen by early morning as
the low deepens offshore and high pressure builds in from
southeastern Canada, so expect winds to gradually increase
overnight.

MAV/MET blend was used for low temperatures ranging from the
low to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday and Wednesday night, mid and upper level ridging will
gradually move in from the west. At the surface, high pressure will
continue to build in from the north.

There will be an embedded mid level shortwave moving across
Wednesday. The low levels will feature more northerly flow and with
cooling temperatures as flow closer to the surface will be more NE.
Model soundings indicate inversion above the low level NE flow
so could have some times where there are more clouds with
moisture getting trapped below the inversion. The forecast has
more clouds across eastern sections for a period of time
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall though, cooler and dry
weather will be the main theme along with less humid conditions.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side from the N-NE flow.
Highs Wednesday range from the mid to upper 70s with lows
Wednesday night ranging from the low 50s to low 60s. Dewpoints
will be lowering into the low 60s Wednesday and mid to upper
50s Wednesday night.

There is a moderate rip current risk for Wednesday for Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridge Thursday and Friday gives way to weakening
shortwave and falling heights this weekend as the upper flow
flattens and the ridge gets suppressed to the south.  Heights begin
to rise again ahead of upstream trough early next week, with model
differences in details noted.

At the sfc, ridge of high pressure passes east Thursday and Friday
as low pressure moves into Canada. Warm front passes to the NW
Friday, followed by a cold front Saturday.

The front settles to the south into early next week as high
pressure builds to the north. The front likely moves back north as a
warm front ahead of downstream low pressure as it approaches ahead
of aforementioned upper trough.

Temperatures vary through the period. Ahead of the warm front,
expect near normal readings Thursday, with above normal Friday as
area sits in the warm sector. Once the cold front passes, temps
likely fall back to near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday, then
back to near normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure and a cold front south of Long Island continue to
slowly move southeast tonight as high pressure builds well to
the north tonight into Wednesday.

Generally VFR overnight, with areas of MVFR fog and locally IFR
fog, KBDR, KGON, KSWF, KHPN, and KISP. There is a low chance of
MVFR to IFR stratus. VFR Wednesday.

Winds N/NE under 10KT overnight, become northerly Wednesday
morning 10-15KT. Occasional gusts 15-20KT possible 14Z to 19Z.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR.
.Thursday night...Slight chance of showers with MVFR possible.
.Friday-Friday night...VFR during the day, then a chance of
showers and thunderstorms with MVFR at night.
.Saturday-Sunday...An early shower Saturday, then VFR through
the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA is in effect for the eastern ocean from Fire Island east
through Wednesday. SCA for western ocean west of Fire Island
remains in effect until 6AM Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions
expected otherwise for other waters. There is potential for SCA
conditions for all ocean zones Wednesday night. However,
confidence is not high enough to have SCA extended through
Wednesday night.

Winds shift around to the E/SE Thursday, then S/SW Friday as speeds
pickup ahead of a cold front. Winds shift behind the front Saturday,
shifting to the NW and eventually E/SE Sunday.

Lingering 3-5 ft ocean seas may subside somewhat, then build
slightly as south winds pickup Friday. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions
are anticipated through the late week period and this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday
of next week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...MD/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...19
MARINE...JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
EQUIPMENT...


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