Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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249
FXUS61 KOKX 170219
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1019 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will form across the area each afternoon
throughout the week. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the
region much of the week with some disturbances approaching the
area Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mid level shortwave will continue to push offshore tonight.
Lingering middle and upper level cloud cover should gradually
clear out overnight with most locations mostly clear by early
Monday morning.

Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out for some of the more
rural/interior locations. Do not anticipate the fog to get
widespread as the low level air mass is still quite dry
despite some of the earlier shower activity.

Lows tonight will range generally from the middle and upper 40s
in rural locations, to the lower and middle 50s across the
suburban and metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Other than some early morning localized patchy fog in low lying
rural areas around sun up, a good deal of sunshine is expected to
begin Monday. By the afternoon, especially away from the coast some
cumulus will build between 5 and 10k ft. With a surface trough
forecast to linger over the area, especially across northern
sections will continue with slight chance of showers and an isolated
t-storm/ t-shower. Instability looks to be confined mainly away from
the coast via BUFKIT forecast soundings for Monday afternoon and
early evening. And what instability there is, is not overly
impressive. Also, any embedded shortwaves in the NW upper flow
appear to be very weak. Therefore, went with a slight chance of
showers with an isolated storm possible across northern and
northwestern most sections. The pattern stays persistent, thus a
similar temperature regime to previous days is anticipated across
the area. This coincides with middle and upper 70s across inland
locations, with upper 60s close to the immediate coast.

For Monday night with heights starting to build a bit, and shortwave
energy off to the east look for a mainly clear night. A light SW
flow regime will continue, therefore continuing with a persistence
type forecast. Lows should range in the middle and upper 50s across
the suburban and urban areas, with upper 40s and lower 50s in most
rural locations.

Heights then look to build into the mid week. This really gets
underway on Tuesday. Look for abundant sunshine with just some
cumulus by the afternoon with the surface trough in place, thus some
low level convergence lingering. Southern coastal locations again
will experience an afternoon sea breeze. This should keep these
areas mainly in the 70s with some 60s later in the day. Meanwhile,
inland locations and northern parts of the metro should get on
either side of 80 during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This week will be mainly dominated by a surface high pressure system
positioned to our south over the East Coast. This will result in
primarily southerly or southwesterly winds through the forecast
period allowing moisture to increase. Generally dry conditions are
expected Wednesday and Thursday. Strong ridging aloft will allow for
temperatures to be above average for much of the forecast period.
Highs Wednesday through the beginning of next week look to reach
into the low and potentially middle 80s each day with some cooler
locations along the immediate coast and Long Island.

Upper-level ridging slides back to the west as a weak trough
approaches the area from the north and northeast around Friday and
into the weekend. Ample moisture will be in place from the
antecedent southerly flow that may result in showers and
thunderstorms developing as early as Friday afternoon. With the
surface trough and weak mid-level disturbances riding over the ridge
from the north, there will be at least a slight chance potential of
a shower or thunderstorm through much of the weekend and into the
beginning of the week. Models still disagree somewhat as to the
timing and extent of the precipitation but they both indicate some
sort of weakly forced disturbance during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure largely in
control. A surface trough develops in the vicinity of the
terminals Monday afternoon.

Light and/or variable winds are forecast through early Monday
morning. A W-SW flow should develop after 13-15z and become
SSW-S late Monday morning into the afternoon. The strongest
winds will occur at coastal terminals where speeds 10-15 kt are
possible in the afternoon. The flow will begin to weaken Monday
evening.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible well north and
west of the NYC terminals Monday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds could fall below 5 kt tonight sooner than indicated in the
TAF at JFK and LGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday Night...Mainly VFR. Isolated early evening shower and
N and W of NYC metro terminals.
.Tuesday-Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A broad and light S to SW flow is anticipated through Monday night
with high pressure nearby. Winds and seas increase a bit across the
eastern waters into late Tuesday and Tuesday night, but should
remain below SCA criteria. With high pressure remaining nearby,
winds and seas will remain below SCA threshold through much of
the middle and end of the week. Ocean waves may rise just below
SCA thresholds again by Saturday but these rises will be
temporary and below 5ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through this week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/MW
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW



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