Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 302020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
420 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Weak inland low pressure will dissipate tonight. Meanwhile low
pressure well east of Nantucket will strengthen through Tuesday
while moving very slowly east. Another low will pass well to the
southeast Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds well to
the north. A cold front will pass late weekend into early next


Radar shows numerous showers over Orange County and NJ in an
axis of sfc-base instability, with MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg in
spots. This axis should remain to the west of NYC til about
sunset, with scattered tstms possible. Stronger cells there could
produce a quick downpour, gusty winds to 35 kt, and possibly
small hail.

As this activity weakens while moving into NYC and points east,
showers farther upstream over central NY should drift down into
the area tonight, but do not expect any thunder.

Clouds should hold through the night, while NE winds start to
increase over ern sections overnight as primary low pressure to
our NW dissipates while transferring its upper level dynamics to
the the offshore low, which should begin to strengthen. Some
snow could mix in with showers over interior southern CT as the
low pulls down enough cold air for temps to fall to the mid
30s. Lows elsewhere should be in the upper 30s or around 40.


As the upper low redevelops off the coast, a weak back door
cold front will move through by Tuesday morning, keeping clouds
and light showers in the forecast in the morning.

Highs on Tuesday will be 45-50, about 5-8 deg below normal.


An elongated upper level remains situated over the Northeast on
Wednesday, pivoting a sfc low well to the southeast, offshore
over the western Atlantic. This upper low drifts east late this
week, becoming stacked with sfc low as the sfc low lifts north
and slightly west. By late Thursday and Thursday night, a
shortwave passes from north to south on the back edge of this
upper low, with sfc trough passing north to south as well. A few
showers may accompany this feature, with the better chance
eastern sections, and east of the forecast area in general.

A ridge of high pressure builds Friday and Saturday, with a
flattening of this ridge by Sunday/Monday time frame. A cold
front should move through during that timeframe. A few showers
may accompany this front as it moves through, which looks to be
either Sunday night or Monday.

Temperatures near normal should slowly rise to above normal by
the weekend into early next week.


Low pressure east of Montauk Point will continue to move slowly
eastward through the forecast period while deepening. Meanwhile
another low approaches from the eastern Great Lakes through tonight
and gradually weakens, becoming a trough associated with the eastern

MVFR conditions will likely continue for the remainder of the day.
Some improvement is expected this afternoon, however not sure we get
to VFR. If we do, it will be short lived this afternoon. Anywhere
that goes VFR lowers back to MVFR this evening. Scattered showers
are possible much of the day with the best chance late this
afternoon into early this evening with a rumble of thunder possible.
The best chances for any thunder will be KSWF and KHPN. Most
terminals will return to IFR tonight then gradually improve to MVFR
and VFR on Tuesday.

Low confidence in the wind forecast, as the gradient remains
rather weak. A prolonged period of light and variable winds is
likely before winds shift to the north and northeast as the
eastern low deepens. Timing of the increasing winds also is low
confidence and uncertain.

.Tuesday...Chance of MVFR in showers.
.Wednesday-Friday...VFR. NW G15-20kt Thursday and Friday.


Ocean seas still running 5-6 ft. They may fall below 5 ft W of
Fire Island Inlet for a time tonight, then as offshore low
pressure strengthens expect SCA conds to return to all waters
and remain into at least Tue night, possibly into Wed morning.

Northerly winds Wednesday will be light but should increase as
another low deepens while passing to the SE Wednesday night and
Thursday. With this deep low, ocean seas due to swell increase
by late week into the weekend.


No hydrologic impacts are expected.


NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.



NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
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