000
FXUS64 KOUN 041123
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
523 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

The cold front has pushed through the area, and high temperatures
today are expected to be just a touch cooler than yesterday, but
still above average for this time of year. The main thing is
humidity is a lot lower. But with that, minimum RH values this
afternoon in far western Oklahoma will fall to near or below 20
percent and the grids calculate out to elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon in the far western tier of counties,
although winds are not expected to be too strong today. Otherwise,
the surface ridge will move southeast of the area this afternoon
with winds becoming southerly again before another front moves
into the area after midnight in response to a mid-level trough
moving from Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Despite the next cold front moving through the area tonight and
into Tuesday, again no significant cold air is moving into the
area and high temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today. The
next surface ridge moves to the east Tuesday night and southerly
flow redevelops and continues into Thursday allowing warmer
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday looks to be a
windier day as the pressure gradient increases with the approach
of the next front. Although this front is expected to move into
northwestern Oklahoma Thursday night, there is not a significant
push to the front and it will likely hang out in northwestern
Oklahoma Thursday night and through most of the day on Friday
before it finally pushes through the remainder of the area Friday
night as a longwave trough approaches. The approach of this wave
will also bring some precipitation chances Friday night and
Saturday, although much of the better moisture will have been
pushed to the east, so the POPs are still low and confined to the
east ahead of the system, and perhaps in the north behind the
front with the passage of the mid-level trough itself. It does
look to be windy behind the front on Saturday. This front will
bring cooler temperatures for the weekend, but only closer to
early December normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through
the entire forecast period. Light northwest surface winds will
gradually back more southerly after 18Z. A cold front will be
coming through by 06Z which will be veering the surface winds
northwesterly behind the front across some of our terminals by the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  36  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         60  33  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  35  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           61  30  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     55  31  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         60  38  64  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68