000
FXUS64 KOUN 281101
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
601 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

As the warm layer gets closer to the surface we expect the surface
freezing line to continue its slow progression westward today. The
third major round of rain/freezing rain moving over western
Oklahoma will pass into central Oklahoma around daybreak and last
much of the morning. The ice storm warning will be spatially
reduced following the freezing line until its expiration around
midday. With northwest Oklahoma temperatures around freezing at
midday and continuing to move westward, 1 PM still appears
reasonable for the final termination of the warning there. A
fourth round of rain is expected later this evening and overnight,
primarily over the northern half of Oklahoma while the closed
upper low translates eastward through the Red River region. A
flood watch will be issued for part of north central Oklahoma.
After midnight, northwest surface winds will increase and become
gusty on the back side of the low. Most of the rain is expected to
have ended over north central Oklahoma shortly after 12Z
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

As the upper-level low finally moves off to the east of our
forecast area, rain will come to an end during the day on
Thursday, and we will see much less dramatic weather through early
next week. Temperatures will generally remain cooler than average,
though not nearly like the record and near-record temperatures of
the past couple of days.

Thursday will be fairly windy behind the departing storm system,
which may pose more problems with power outages, unless the ice on
trees melts fast enough to be gone by then.

A cold front will pass through the region Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday, shifting the winds and dropping
temperatures a few degrees.

Otherwise, weak ridging aloft will result in "fair" weather
through the rest of the long-term period.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

IFR conditions are expected into Thursday morning. Rain will
continue most of the period as the freezing line moves slowly
westward through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  39  36  46  32 /  90  60  40   0
Hobart OK         37  34  48  31 /  90  40  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  41  36  51  32 /  90  20   0   0
Gage OK           37  31  45  28 /  90  80  20   0
Ponca City OK     41  36  48  30 /  90  90  80   0
Durant OK         50  39  52  36 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Ice Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ004>019-
     021>025-027>029-033>038.

     Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013.

TX...Ice Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09