657
FXUS64 KOUN 091955
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
255 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

    - Elevated Fire Weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Above average temperatures return this weekend.

- Slight chance of rain Wednesday in the far southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Relatively tranquil conditions will continue today and tomorrow with
surface ridging and a dry airmass in place. Really about the only
weather feature of note this period will be fire weather conditions
pushing up into elevated territory tomorrow afternoon as lee
troughing deepens east of the Rockies and winds increase slightly
over today`s values. Relative humidity also looks to be lower
tomorrow, with afternoon RH values in the 15-20% range for much of
western and northern Oklahoma.

The dry airmass will allow for another cool night tonight, with lows
expected to dip back down into the 50s areawide. Highs on Tuesday
will then warm quickly back into the 80s for the afternoon.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Fire weather concerns will linger into Wednesday with dry air and
breezy south winds expected across western Oklahoma once again. To
the east, we will continue to watch as TC Francine tracks into
Louisiana and Arkansas late Wednesday into Thursday. The moisture
envelope associated with this system is forecast to just barely
impinge on our southeast counties, so can`t rule out a stray shower
making it into these areas on the outer periphery of the system.
Overall though, chances remain relatively low (<20%) in our area and
the vast majority of the impactful weather will be to our east.

As we head into late week and the weekend, our area remains caught
between the remnants of Francine meandering to our east and a larger
trough developing across the western US. This should lead to mostly
dry conditions and a warming trend as shortwave ridging builds in
between these two systems. The magnitude of this warmup will depend
on the movement and placement of a warm front and the proximity of
the remains of Francine, so some uncertainty remains. Our current
forecast (the most likely scenario) brings 90s back to much of the
area by Saturday and Sunday, with some low 100s potentially
returning to southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

It does appear the pattern could support more rain chances by early
next week as moisture returns and troughing to our west approaches,
but confidence remains low from this range on the details.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday morning.
Southerly winds will decrease diurnally and shift more out of the
southeast this evening and overnight, with stronger and southerly
winds returning through the morning on Tuesday. Skies will remain
clear.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  85  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         56  89  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  89  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           58  92  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     53  88  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         54  89  64  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...50