Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161415
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
915 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

The heavier showers will continue to move off to the east away
from the OKC area, so removed any mention of thunderstorms from
the grids. There is the potential for some spotty showers
associated with weak isentropic ascent and low-level saturation.
Any areas across central OK could receive rain rates of a few
hundreths per hour. These showers will taper off by early
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Moist isentropic lift is expected through the early morning Friday
(today). This will likely lead to generally increasing areas and
intensities of rain. Modest amounts of elevated instability are
expected aloft, so elevated thunderstorms are similarly expected.
With a warm/humid vertical profile up to the freezing level at
around 10,000 ft, hail will have a difficult time making it to the
ground, but will still be possible, given the amount of
instability (up to about 1,000 J/kg in our southern counties) and
wind shear.

The upper-level wave that is generating the lift and shear will
trek east across Kansas today, and as it moves off to the east,
its support for precipitation and convection will diminish. Rain
chances will diminish from west to east with the progression of
the wave.

With widespread cloudiness through most of the day, afternoon
temperatures over most of our forecast area will remain well
below average. Partial clearing is expected late tonight over the
west, which will allow temperature to drop to near freezing in the
far northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Gusty north winds after a cold front on Saturday will diminish
somewhat on Sunday while the surface high moves into Oklahoma
Sunday. An upper short-wave trough in the northern-more branch of
the westerlies will move southeastward through the central plains
brining a cold front and cool airmass into Oklahoma Monday evening
and early Tuesday. Limited moisture with this system will keep pops
brief and low for rain/snow in northwestern Oklahoma early Tuesday.
This will be a fairly cool air mass for late April with gusty winds
and afternoon temperatures in the 50s with some 30s at night. The
next chance for rain comes Thursday with above-surface moisture
arriving through the TX/OK panhandles early Thursday and and short-
wave trough approaching in the northerly branch of the upper flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

An area of TSRA will move east early this morning from near KPNC-
KOKC-E/KSPS at 12Z to near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border by 16Z.
Behind the TSRA, expect low clouds and areas of drizzle. As the
related storm system moves east this evening, subsidence aloft
should erode most of the clouds from west to east...but the most
believable model forecasts bring low clouds (ceilings around 1000
to 2000 ft) back to much of central/western Oklahoma and the KSPS
area early Saturday morning. At KPNC and KSWO, it looks like the
MVFR/IFR-level ceilings will not relent through the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  39  56  38 /  90   0   0   0
Hobart OK         57  37  58  35 /  50   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  40  60  38 /  90   0   0   0
Gage OK           50  32  56  32 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     53  39  57  35 / 100  10   0   0
Durant OK         58  45  61  42 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23


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