934
FXUS64 KOUN 230458
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1058 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020


...Updated AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

Areas of light rain showers and drizzle are expected to continue
into this evening, especially across central and eastern portions
of the area. Fog and low clouds have been persistent this morning
and early afternoon across central and western Oklahoma.
Visibility and ceilings may improve slightly this afternoon, but
are expected to quickly drop back down this evening and overnight
given abundant boundary layer moisture trapped beneath the
inversion and relatively light winds. Fog may be dense at times
and a fog advisory may be needed for portions of the area and will
need to be reassessed this evening. A cold front is expected to
enter northwest Oklahoma after midnight and then clear the rest of
the area through tomorrow morning, which will lead to improved
visibilities and clearing skies into the afternoon. Highs tomorrow
will be warmer than today, mostly in the 50s, with downslope flow
and increased insolation.

Ware



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

As the upper level low departs Thursday night, temperatures will
begin a gradual warmup into early next week. A return of southerly
surface flow (moisture will be marginal) in conjunction with a
shortwave will give us some low rain chances late Saturday into
early Sunday near the Red River.

Another storm system will approach on Tuesday. Monday will likely
see slightly warmer temperatures and breezy winds across western
portions of the area ahead of the front due to downslope flow.

Rain chances will increase Tuesday and Wednesday with this storm
system and its associated cold front. Some isolated thunderstorms
may be possible across eastern parts of the state Tuesday afternoon
where models suggest some marginal instability with the southerly
flow.

Wednesday morning, some models suggest some wrap-around
precipitation in northwest Oklahoma which could be in the form of
snow. However, chances are low, and given how far out this period
is and how much model spread exists, any details are uncertain.

Day



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions expected next several hours before
drier air filters in behind a cold front. This will shift the
winds to the northwest and bring VFR conditions back to most
sites. One exception may be PNC where MVFR ceilings may linger
through the forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  52  32  53 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         35  55  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  57  35  60 /  30   0   0   0
Gage OK           31  53  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     34  49  28  48 /  20   0  10   0
Durant OK         39  54  35  56 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for OKZ005>048-
     050>052.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30