Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 080809 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 409 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperature and unsettled conditions will continue through this weekend, with widespread rain likely on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Scattered showers or a rain/snow mix will be possible this morning with a crossing shortwave before high pressure brings a relatively brief break in the weather this afternoon. Daytime highs will again top out around 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry conditions continue this evening before rain chances increase early in the AM as moisture advection ramps up ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. Less cloud coverage this evening and into early morning coupled with light winds could result in frost along and north of I-80 before temps increase and rain overspreads the region around daybreak. A Frost Advisory has been issued. Widespread rain is forecast by Sunday morning and will continue through Mother`s Day. Canadien, EC, and GFS guidance (both ensemble and operational) have all trended slightly farther north with the low track to some degree over the past couple runs. 24 hour precipitation amounts are forecast to range between one and one and a half inches with the highest amounts centered along a SSW line running roughly from Coshocton-> Pittsburgh-> Indiana. Instability is limited so have no mention of thunder in the forecast, but more moderate rates will be possible with strong shortwave and jet support during the afternoon when we could see rates around 0.25"/hr rates. Widespread precip will diminish to more scattered showers Sunday night the backside of the low.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Outside of a slight chance of a light shower along and north of I-80 with a crossine shortwave on Tuesday...dry conditions return Monday through at least midweek as sfc high pressure regains control. With upper troughing in place temperatures will remain well below normal. The combination of sfc high pressure, reduced cloud cover and continued cool conditions raise frost / freeze concerns both Monday and Tuesday night, thus overnight low temperature forecasts should be monitored closely by stakeholders during this period. Precipitation chances should generally increase by Thursday with a crossing Great Lakes trough.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Another round of MVFR/IFR conditions are progged this morning as upper level low pressure digs ovr the region. Scattered showers (and a few snowflakes for FKL/DUJ) are crossing the area and will clear by mid-morning. Modest improvement will then begin by midday. .Outlook... Restrictions and rain are likely Sunday with encroaching low pres.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ007>009-013>016- 022-023. OH...None. WV...None.
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&& $$

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