Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200128 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 928 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue before the next system brings precipitation and colder air to the area starting late Wednesday through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will promote dry weather overnight, although some high clouds are already streaming in from the west on zonal flow aloft. These will not hinder radiational cooling to a huge degree, and allowed temperature forecast in the 20s to stand with only minor modification. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Southerly flow and warm air advection will resume as sfc high pressure transitions east of the forecast area. Temperatures will reach into the upper 40s and 50s by Wednesday afternoon. The next chance for precipitation comes early Thursday as longwave troughing deepens and a shortwave and associated sfc low swings across the forecast area. Precipitation will be largely be rain outside of a mix along/north of I-80 and the ridges. After a brief lull another shortwave will bring snow to the region on Friday with colder air in place aloft...but accumulations will be limited by sfc temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Temperatures will moderate a bit over the weekend as the deep eastern CONUS troughing progrades into the Atlantic. NW flow aloft will flatten with the approach of a shortwave ridge. Conditions will remain mostly dry, though a few quick passing shortwaves on the NW periphery of our area may enhance cloud cover and a few brief showers in what will largely be a dry weekend. The next chance for precipitation will come Monday as southern stream energy interacts with a northern stream shortwave. However, global model solutions differ on timing and placement so will hold off on details and go with a general blend in the forecast package. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High clouds can be expected overnight, mainly in the form of cirrus. Clouds will begin to lower and thicken after 18Z as a mid-level shortwave approaches. Some light precipitation may reach terminals like ZZV and FKL just prior to 00Z Thursday, but no significant restrictions are expected through that time. Light wind overnight will turn toward the south with time on Wednesday. .Outlook... Flight restrictions likely starting Wednesday night through the end of the week with a cold frontal passage and a return of cold NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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