Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201126 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 726 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated showers will end with the passage of a cold front this morning. Mainly dry weather is expected through mid week under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 730am update...minor tweaks to PoPs based on radar trends, otherwise forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion... Isolated to scattered showers ahead of an advancing cold front will shift east by this afternoon. Drier and cooler air will work in behind the front as sfc high pressure begins to build, which will lead to near normal high temperature. Enough daytime heating/mixing plus a tighter sfc gradient will lead to gusty late morning to afternoon west to northwest winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Dry and cooler weather is expected Tuesday as high pressure continues to build under the broad upper trough across the NE CONUS. A transition to ridging plus sfc high pressure will maintain dry weather for much of Wednesday, with temperature returning to above average levels. A shortwave ridge is progged to traverse the upper level high Wednesday night as a sfc warm front approaches from the southwest, returning shower and thunderstorm chances to the forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper high is progged to persist over the SE CONUS through the weekend. Waves occasionally rotating through the northern periphery of the high should result in periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. Above average temperature is expected. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Patchy MVFR cigs will lift by this afternoon due to diurnal heating and the eventual passage of the sfc cold front. Heating plus a tight sfc gradient will generate wind gusts in excess of 20kts by the afternoon, first out of the W then shifting out of the NW. The encroaching sfc high pressure will cause winds to taper off tonight. Medium confidence that enough moisture will remain stuck under an elevated inversion layer for MVFR cigs to return this evening under NW flow. Increased subsidence and a shift towards ridging should erode this deck during the overnight hours. .Outlook... VFR will prevail through much of the week, with possible restrictions after Wednesday due to occasionally shortwave brings rounds of precipitation. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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