Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 082055 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 455 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather with little or no rainfall is expected through Monday under high pressure. A weak front will approach on Tuesday and bring the next chance of rain to the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Forecast remains in good shape. Minor adjustments were made to PoPs along the far-eastern ridges, where shower development is focused. This development will wane quickly over the next hour or two once peak heating is reached. Selections from prev discussion are below... The 12z PIT sounding sampled a rather strong inversion between roughly 780 and 730 mb. This will keep convection / cloud depths rather shallow, resulting in a dry day save perhaps the ern-most ridges. The temperature forecast remains on track as maxima are expected to top out in the 80s for most locations (70s in the mountains). With a mostly clear sky anticipated tonight, temp will fall quickly into the 60s during the overnight hours, bottoming out in the mid/upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Tranquil weather will continue through the short-term period with building high pressure. The area will reside underneath general low- level southwest flow between high pressure centered off the East Coast and troughing across the Plains. This flow regime will result in a gradual warming, moistening trend, beginning on Sunday. 850mb temperature will climb to 16-17C. With sufficient diurnal mixing, temperature will max out in the upper 80s for much of the forecast area. On Monday, the warming trend continues as southwesterly return flow commences behind the eastward-moving high. 90 degrees should be reached, or even slightly exceeded, in many locations. The return flow will also bring a moisture increase, with PWAT climbing to around 1.5 inches during the afternoon in eastern Ohio. The resulting surface dewpoint increase should yield sufficient CAPE to create isolated showers and storms west of Pittsburgh, possibly aided by a weak impulse in the mid-level flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A summertime weather pattern will dominate the extended forecast period. Our region will remain on the northern periphery of fairly broad ridging in place over the southeast CONUS, which will keep temperature and dewpoint elevated. A weak frontal boundary dropping in from the northwest will provide rain chances Tuesday and Tuesday night. The boundary may then stall over the middle Ohio Valley as it outruns strong flow aloft, wavering in the area for the remainder of the week. Diurnally-driven shower and thunderstorms will be possible each day Wednesday through Friday. The elevated moisture levels and weak steering flow could result in localized heavy rainfall at some point next week, especially close to the quasi-stationary front. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites with high pressure in control. Sct cu will diminish this evening with loss of daytime heating. Forecast vertical moisture profiles look marginal at best for fog but have MVFR vis restrictions at FKL and DUJ where forecast overnight lows should come closest to crossover temperatures based off latest sfc obs. .Outlook... Restrictions will be possible again Tuesday with a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ Update...Kramar

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