Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230145 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 945 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front will continue to move southeastward through the evening. Dry and seasonable weather can be expected for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The cold front has completely crossed the forecast area, although some accumulating rain remains from Morgantown to the south and east. The flash flood watch has been allowed to expire, as heavier rain has departed to the southeast. While there are light radar echoes elsewhere, these scattered sprinkles are not expected to last past midnight nor to accumulate. Cold advection should return temperatures to near seasonal values overnight, despite widespread cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper trough will pivot across the region early Tuesday with a secondary wave deepening said trough. Some lingering showers are possible, mainly south along the terrain, where moisture pools through midday, but overall expect conditions to start to dry out. While upper troughing/nw flow will persist through the middle of the week, surface high pressure should support little more than diurnal cu. Seasonal or even slightly below seasonal temperatures are expected given the pattern through the week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Temperatures will rebound by the weekend as southerly flow returns and high pressure slides off the Atlantic coast. At this point, ensemble guidance continues to suggest dry weather through at least Saturday before increasing Gulf moisture on the western edge of the atlantic ridge returning precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some sprinkles have been observed in central/eastern Ohio, and this precipitation may reach other airports during the evening hours. Confidence in the forecast overnight is a little higher compared to the 18Z TAF issuance; models indicate that while many sites will have mid level overcast skies for several hours, profiles should eventually saturate closer to the surface around sunrise, allowing for the potential of some MVFR restrictions returning. Think this threat should be relatively short lived, with widespread diurnal cumulus developing by the afternoon. .Outlook... VFR will return Tuesday, with prevailing VFR expected for much of the week, outside of any morning fog. Bookbinder && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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