Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191738 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 138 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry and very warm conditions can be expected into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms return with a Sunday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry conditions will continue this afternoon and evening with sfc high pressure. High temperatures should top out around 5 degrees above average. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible overnight and early Friday associated with an MCV currently over Missouri is progged to continue slowly to the ENE. Models still vary widely in solutions but overall consensus would have the feature begin to transition over the forecast area after midnight and continue to the NE Friday morning. && && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The amplifying pattern should result in a building ridge across the ern CONUS on Friday. After the initial shower/tstm chances, capping under the ridge should result in dry and hot weather with near record highs from 85 to 90. Generally dry weather should continue through Saturday with the Upper Ohio Valley region on the NW periphery of the ridge, though the building heat and humidity could result in an isolated tstm as temperatures near convective thresholds. Capping warmth aloft should be a limiting factor in tstm coverage on Saturday. Near record highs are again possible. The ridge begins to shift ewd Saturday night ahead of a Central CONUS trough. Mainly dry weather should continue, though limited showers/tstm chances are expected as the trough begins its approach. Hot and humid weather should continue through the remainder of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Model ensembles indicate the trough should flatten as it tracks ewd Sunday, though its associated sfc cold front is progged for an afternoon/eve passage. Shower and tstms should become likely by aftn/eve as the front crosses. Low shower chances should continue Monday and Tuesday, mainly S of PIT, as a weak shortwave embedded in SW flow aloft tracks from the TN Vly to the Mid Atlantic. Another trough is progged to dig across the Central CONUS, and track toward the Upper OH Valley region by midweek, with increasing shower/tstm chances. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR expected other than possible overnight/Friday morning restrictions with possible thunderstorms. At this time confidence is too low for incllusion in 18Z TAFs. .Outlook... VFR conditions are likely through the arrival of the next cold front on Sunday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$

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