Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 312134 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 534 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Light showers are possible this evening and Wednesday, especially for southern portions of the region, as low pressure passes to our south. Dry weather with high pressure is then expected for the latter half of the week. Temperatures will gradually increase through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Latest radar shows light/isolated shower coverage has expanded across the Pittsburgh metro this evening, though most of the more stratiform rain remains confined to far southern zones. Nudged PoPs upwards for central portions of the CWA this evening and overnight. Latest global/hi-res model runs show lingering low-level moisture across southern portions of the area through Wednesday evening. With northerly winds and broad upslope ascent, showers with light QPF will be possible through Wednesday afternoon. Added chance/slight chance PoPs to the Wed forecast mainly south and east of PIT. Previous... Rain chances are expected to increase through the evening with the approach of a sfc low from the South. The best support for large scale ascent will be in the Southern half of the CWA where the ageostrophic jet circulation and omega are focused, but overall accumulation will be light. Temperature will drop near the norm tonight and with it, any light precipitation in places near freezing may see light snowfall of up to a couple tenths of an inch, most likely in Eastern Tucker county. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather and clearing skies are then expected through the short term as high pressure builds across the region. Temperature is expected to increase to near the seasonal threshold. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure should maintain dry weather through Saturday with what looks like a pretty stationary ridge blocked by western CONUS/New England troughing. Temperature is expected to return above average readings through the long term period as subsidence and sunshine will be abundant. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR/low VFR ceilings will continue through this evening as weakening surface low pressure approaches. Some generally light rain is expected, mainly south of PIT, but visibility should remain MVFR at worst. Lingering low-level moisture will allow ceilings to fall overnight, with low MVFR/IFR restrictions anticipated, along with some light mist. Some improvement is expected with daytime mixing by midday Wednesday. Wind will remain light throughout. .Outlook... No widespread IFR weather is forecast. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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