Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222204 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 604 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and cooler weather for most of the area through the weekend. Widespread showers return to the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Changes for the early eve update were minor - just tweaks to hourly trends of temperature. Generally dry weather is expected, although some light, non- measurable rain may affect areas south of PIT as a crossing jet steak has generated some precip. as per radar returns; however, a deep swath of dry air in the atmospheric column is evaporating much of it. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions continue for much of the area through Sunday as high pressure remains in place. The exception will be south of the Mason-Dixon line as an upper level disturbance brings increased chances for showers tonight through Sunday. Widespread PoPs will return to the entire area on Monday... especially Monday afternoon... as a shortwave passes over the region and moisture increases with southerly flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Chances for showers will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday along with slightly above seasonal temperatures ahead of a cold front that will sweep through Wednesday. Dry weather will briefly return Wednesday night and Thursday before a second cold front moves across the area on Friday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather for the weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR/brief MVFR conditions will continue in ENE flow on the periphery of the surface ridge over the Great Lakes. Expect to lose most of the lower ceilings overnight though cirrus may remain, making any fog development difficult. That being said, much of the model guidance suggests to some degree some fog, which would climatologically make sense this time of year. As such, started to hedge in the direction with MVFR at most, but not all, ports. Wave riding along the boundary to our south may bring precipitation into MGW overnight, but this isn`t handled well in the models. Opted to carry VCSH and limit restrictions for now. VFR is anticipated after morning fog burnoff tomorrow. Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with a Monday warm front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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