Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260554 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1254 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will continue through the night. Lake enhanced snow showers should linger near I-80 Sunday into Monday with northwest flow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Made some generally minor adjustments to the overnight forecast, mainly to PoPs and snow amounts, but the overall thinking is on track. Shortwave rotating around the eastern Great Lakes upper low is pushing a band of precipitation across the CWA, most of which has changed to snow. With minimal moisture penetration into the dendritic growth layer, snow will remain generally light. Nighttime totals will mainly remain under an inch given the still relatively warm ground and mostly marginal boundary layer temperatures, although higher ridge locations may see a touch more. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Multiple shortwave trough axes will cross over the Great Lakes through the short term within broad cyclonic flow aloft, leading to scattered snow showers. Regardless, QPF looks to be quite minimal, so little to no snowfall accumulation is anticipated south of I-80, where 1-2 inches are possible through the duration of the period. Building high pressure over the Midwest is expected to return quiet conditions across the region Monday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Seasonable weather continues into mid-week as surface high pressure prevails. Models suggest a quick moving upper-level shortwave trough crossing Wednesday night, but a lack of moisture will keep conditions dry. Primarily dry conditions will continue through the end of the work week. A low pressure system may develop along the Gulf Coast late Friday and return return snow/rain to our region over the weekend. However, recent GFS/ECMWF model runs have had a hard time agreeing on a track for this system. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR/low MVFR conditions will largely prevail over the next several hours as low-level stratus will remain in place with scattered snow showers as shortwave troughs rotate around a broad, deep low across the Great Lakes. Conditions will improve some after 12z as ceilings lift a bit and snow showers diminish for PIT and elsewhere. FKL/DUJ will likely see low ceilings and intermittent snow showers persist. Models are hinting at a slight uptick in shower coverage in the afternoon, so may see intermittent vsby restrictions. Ceilings will once again lower to around or just below 1000ft by late afternoon. Gusts to 15 to 20 knots are possible later this evening and through much of Sunday. .Outlook... Little improvement is expected through midweek. Low clouds and occasional snow showers will keep restrictions in place. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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