949
FXUS66 KPDT 141013
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
313 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

1.Dry and warm through the weekend becoming hot Monday
  *Heat Advisories Issued*

2. Breezy to windy across the region through Wednesday

3. Isolated fire weather concerns today becoming widespread Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current night time satellite shows little to no clouds over the
region this morning. The ridge remains overhead allowing for the
clear skies to continue through the forecast period. Clear skies and
warming temperatures will continue through the beginning of next
week with the hottest day being Monday. High temperatures across the
lower Columbia Basin, Central Oregon, Columbia Gorge, Blue Mountain
foothills, and the Yakima/Kittitas Valleys will reach into the upper
80s to low 90s today, and in the mid-to upper 90s on Monday. Monday
morning lows are expected to drop into the mid-50s and lead to
widespread moderate HeatRisk (2) across the area. There are also
isolated areas of major HeatRisk (3 or 4) through the Columbia Gorge
and the Yakima Valley with 80-90% probabilities of temperatures. Due
to higher overnight lows and the high temperatures Monday, a
Heat Advisory has been issued from 10 AM to 10 PM Monday for the
Columbia Gorge, Central Oregon, and the Yakima/Kittitas
Valleys. Temperatures will remain warm through the week,
however, overnight lows will decrease and the HeatRisk will
settle to near normal.

Models show that Monday and upper level shortwave will ripple over
the crest of the upper level ridge. This will bring increased
chances of breezy conditions to the mountain gaps and highland zones
Monday. In house calculations using the GFS and SREF shows the
tightening of the pressure gradient across the Cascades to be
anywhere from 10-15 mb in difference. This will lead to areas seeing
wind gusts as high as 50 mph, especially along the Simcoes, the
Gorge, north central OR and along the foothills of the southern and
northern Blues. NBM ensembles show nearly a 90% probability of these
areas seeing near wind advisory criteria on Tuesday.

With the increase in temperatures and winds, isolated areas through
the region will see increased chances of fire weather through
Monday and even higher on Tuesday. NBM shows daytime minimum RHs
to be dipping into the low to mid teens. Red Flag Warnings may
be possible, especially Tuesday and winds remain elevated and
RHs remain low. However, clusters so show some variances within
the models and depending on how quick the shortwave presents
itself could affect the possible RFW. If the shortwave comes in
quick, then criteria will decrease, but if it comes in slower,
widespread fire weather will be possible. Confidence in the
need of RFWs is 40-60% and will continue to monitor the
situation as the event draws near.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist at all sites through the
period. CIGs will be mostly skc with some passing FEW250 through the
period. Winds will be mostly diurnally driven overnight seeing an
increase in winds to near 10-15kts from the north and northeast with
gusts of 15-20kts beginning after 11 AM and persisting through
the day. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WA/OR691, OR700, OR704, and OR705 are the areas of
concern for the potential of fire weather. These areas fuels
are receptive and if a fire ignites, spread could be quick with
higher sustained winds and low RHs. Confidence in the high
winds is high at 79-80% and RHs are slightly less confident with
only 50%. Will continue to monitor the situation as the event
draws near.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  87  53  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  87  57  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  91  57  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  91  60  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  90  56  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  87  59  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  86  49  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  84  49  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  86  47  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  93  64  99  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Monday for WAZ024-026-
     027.
OR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PDT Monday for ORZ041-511.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...90