Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

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000 FXUS66 KPQR 161003 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 302 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS..Weak ridging builds across the Pacific NW through the remainder of the week. This will result in a more mid-summer like scenario with dry weather and warm temperatures through the weekend. .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Model guidance is in good agreement that weak ridging builds over the Pacific NW today followed by a slightly more zonal pattern taking over Thursday and Friday. This will result in daytime temperatures increasing as a warm, dry air mass looks to settle in over the area. Model guidance has 850 mb temperatures in the 10 C to 12 C range which puts daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 80s inland and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Given the wet ground and calm winds there is the chance for some patchy fog development this morning. At this time there is no precipitation expected through the weekend. /42 .LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...Friday through Monday...Ridging both at the surface and aloft is then expected to retain a firm hold on the weather across the Pacific NW for much of the next week, keeping dry conditions in place through early next week, with temperatures warming a few degrees each day as the boundary layer and ground moisture from the recent rains slowly dries out. Based on most recent deterministic and ensemble medium range guidance, inland temperatures should climb to at least 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals by this weekend and early next week, with a few locations making a run into the 90s early next week. The one exception should be along the immediate coast where a persistent onshore component to the low-level flow should keep temperatures cooler, along with some periods of marine stratus and fog. && .AVIATION...Overall VFR flight conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with the following exceptions. Patches of fog, mainly in river valleys in the coast range and foothills during the morning hours. Also there is residual clouds with cigs 015-035 in the KAST-KTMK area which should dissipate 12-16Z. Northerly winds will increase through the afternoon and become gusty on the coast and south and central Willamette valley with gusts 20-25 kt at the coast and 15-20 kt inland for the afternoon and early evening hours. For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected to prevail next 24 hours. However IFR/LIFR cigs and vis through the Gorge is slowly expanding westward along the Columbia River. Currently KTTD is affected and will may see SCT-BKN below 010 at KPDX 11-15Z based on satellite trends. But weak onshore flow will work against the fog/stratus from reaching KPDX. /mh && .MARINE...High pressure will continue over the waters through at least this weekend, while a thermally induced surface trough resides over the northern CA/southern OR coast. This setup will bring a typical summertime northerly flow pattern Wednesday through the weekend, with the breeziest conditions expected during the afternoon and evening hours each day. The strongest winds should occur over the central waters, especially to the south of Cape Foulweather. This area should see gusts to around 25 kt on Wednesday and Thursday, and possibly gusts as high as 30 kt on Friday as the pressure gradient strengthens a bit more. Small Craft Advisory winds may extend into portions of the northern zones later Thursday and Friday so may eventually issue an advisory. Otherwise expect seas to range between 3 and 5 feet through Thursday night before increasing to 6 to 8 feet by Friday evening. /mh -TK && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM. && $$ Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

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