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000
FXUS65 KPSR 290533
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1033 PM MST Sun May 28 2023

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and near to below normal temperatures will persist through next
weekend. Breezy to locally windy conditions during the
afternoon/evenings will also continue for the several days. A slight
cooling trend is expected during the middle and latter portions of
next week as weak disturbances slide through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest RAP analysis depicts a short-wave ridge building across
the Desert Southwest. Under clear skies, temperatures are running
a few degrees higher than this time yesterday. Meanwhile, further
upstream, latest water vapor imagery reveals a compact low
pressure system off the central California coast.

The region will be situated between the aforementioned low to our
west and ridge to our east Monday, resulting in a dry
southwesterly flow. With the increased meridional component to the
flow, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler to the west
across southern California, while across central and eastern
Arizona, conditions will be somewhat warmer.

Ensemble consensus indicates the low will drift eastward and into
northern Arizona by Wednesday providing a favorable setup for
widespread breezy/windy conditions each afternoon. The strongest
winds are anticipated across the Imperial Valley, where gusts
could reach 35-45 mph Wednesday afternoon. ECMWF EFIs have trended
higher over the past few runs, but still only peak at 50 percent
for El Centro, which is likely a reflection of the spread in the
ensemble system. Meanwhile, further east across the Phoenix area,
gusts of 20-25 mph are 80% likely each afternoon Monday-Wednesday.

A discernible drop in temperatures is also expected Wednesday as
heights lower in response to the approaching upper low. The below
normal temperatures will persist into Thursday and Friday as
another eastern Pacific vort max migrates eastward and reinforces
the lower heights. Latest NBM indicates there is even a 15-20
percent chance the high temperature will fail to reach the 90
degree mark in Phoenix Thursday. Ensembles all suggest a rebound
in temperatures next weekend as the negative height anomalies
retreat. Otherwise, conditions will remain seasonably dry with no
chance of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0532Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF
period. Winds through the period will mostly remain light, aob 10
kts, outside of afternoon breeziness gusting to around 20 kts.
Directions will generally favor diurnal tendencies, though a
period of southerly winds is likely to develop once again by late
morning on Monday before veering toward the W/SW. Clear skies will
persist.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Westerly winds will be favored through much of the period at KIPL
with gusts upwards of 20-25 kts Monday evening. At KBLH, winds
will continue to favor a southerly component with
afternoon/evening gusts to around 20 kts. Clear skies will
continue through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably dry and breezy conditions will predominate across the
Desert Southwest through next weekend. Periods of windy conditions
are also anticipated, particularly across Imperial County each
afternoon and evening through Wednesday. Consequently, this will
result in elevated fire danger for some areas including
southeastern California and portions of Arizona.

Improving conditions are anticipated by Thursday as a low
pressure system brings a return to below normal temperatures. A
second weak low will also bring a slight uptick in moisture,
though rain chances remain near zero. Winds are also expected to
be weaker late in the week and into the weekend, though some
afternoon and early evening breeziness will persist.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Updated 150 AM MST 5/27/2023

GILA: Ongoing releases from Painted Rock Dam continue to travel down
the Gila River through Yuma County. These releases will continue to
impact unbridged crossings with multiple roads remaining closed due
to flooding. The latest USGS gauge observation along the Gila River
near Dateland has fallen more than 1.5 ft below action stage over
the last few days, with the most recent reading being 6.46 ft.
Further downstream, the USGS gauge near Dome/Yuma is very slowly
declining, but remains above action stage (20 ft) with the latest
reading of 20.45 ft. Despite the declines, and one gauge falling
below action stage, will maintain the current Flood Warnings
downstream from Painted Rock Dam until improvement of impacts can be
confirmed with officials. The Flood Warnings remain in effect
through May 30th.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
HYDROLOGY...Benedict