Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 192235
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
335 PM MST Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler than normal conditions will continue into next weekend as a
series of upper level disturbances moves through the region. Very
windy conditions are expected this afternoon into Monday and Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday when the disturbances pass through. A
chance of showers will be possible mainly over the higher terrain
locations of southeast California including Joshua Tree National
Park and north and east of the Phoenix metro area with both systems.
The best rain chances will be on Monday and late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with a slight chance of thunderstorms over Gila County on
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery and upper air analysis has the strong closed low
pressure circulation center pushing into N CA with a cold front
advancing into the Intermountain West and SE CA. Mostly cloudy skies
with mid to upper clouds are streaming across region with the strong
cyclonic PFJ and jet streaks aloft with some clearing developing out
west. Gusty winds have spread across the region with the strongest
winds expected over SE CA where wind advisories are currently in
effect through tonight. Areas of blowing dust are also a concern
this afternoon and early evening mostly for western areas. Afternoon
radar also shows some mostly light showers that have formed along
a line from northwest of Yuma to La Paz county that are moving
west-northwest.

The region will continue to see below normal temperatures and
unsettled conditions through at least next weekend associated with a
series of weather systems. The first half of the week will feature a
pair of very progressive systems before the pattern transitions to
more of a blocking pattern by late in the week. The latest round of
CAA advection begins today with the cold front moving through the
Phoenix area this evening and tonight as the upper level trough digs
into the Intermountain west. With 8-11C cooling at 850mb expected by
Monday highs tomorrow are only expected in the low to mid 70s near
Phoenix and the mid 70s to low 80s for western areas. Modest IVT and
PWAT values spiking briefly near 0.7 in. will bring a slight chance
of showers with the current system through tomorrow evening with
better chances over the high terrain to the north and east of
Phoenix as well as NE Phoenix and Scottsdale. Lingering breezy
conditions are also expected with Monday`s cooler temperatures.

Temperatures will temporarily rebound on Tuesday before the next
weather system moves into the region from the NNW beginning Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This system will bring yet another round gusty
winds and possible blowing dust Tuesday afternoon and much cooler
temperatures by Wednesday. With a moisture profile similar to the
current system rain chances with it will remain low but favor the
northern and eastern fringes of the forecast area. Temperature on
Wednesday are only expected in the low to mid 70s near Phoenix
and the mid to upper 70s out west, or about 20 degrees below
normal.

Late in the week the trough axis digs SWrd to offshore Baja forming
a large, baggy trough with its trough axis positioned west of AZ as
a NE Pacific ridge builds into SW Canada for the beginning of a
blocking pattern. A warming trend will take over from Wednesday into
the weekend, although temperatures will remain below normal through
the weekend with weekend highs expected in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Occasionally breezy conditions are also expected as dry
disturbances pass through the region from the south-southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1750 UTC.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT...
A period of crosswinds with speeds AOB 12 kt is forecast to exist
through 19-20Z at KPHX, before winds become predominantly
southwest this afternoon. Gusts to 25-30 kt can be expected at
area terminals through late this evening, before weakening
overnight. West winds will hold overnight with no typical
nocturnal easterly shift expected. Thick clouds around 15k feet
will persist through much of the day, before starting to
thin/clear overnight. Slightly weaker wind speeds can be expected
Monday, though gusts up to 20 kt will be possible during the
afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Southwesterly to westerly gusts to 30-40 kts expected across
southeast California this afternoon, producing localized areas of
blowing dust. Lower visibilities may occur this afternoon and
evening, especially at KIPL. Gusty winds should persist through
late evening, before sustained speeds decrease to 15-20 kt. Cigs
will gradually lower today as increasing southwesterly flow aloft
ushers moisture into the mid-levels. Cigs will generally remain
above 10 kft before gradually scattering out from west to east
overnight into the day on Monday.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday:
Cooler than normal, dry and occasionally breezy to very breezy
conditions are expected for the period as a series of upper level
systems move through the area. A warming trend is expected although
with highs remaining below normal. The highest temperatures are
forecast for the weekend with highs in the upper 80s out west and
the lower 90s elsewhere. Lingering breezy to very breezy conditions
are expected on Wednesday afternoon with westerly wind gusts of 20-
30 mph out west and 15-22 mph elsewhere. Breezy conditions will then
resume on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Min humidities in the 20s
will gradually fall to the 11-16 percent range by Friday. Good to
excellent overnight recoveries will fall to fair in the lower
deserts of AZ to good over SE CA by Saturday.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Amateur radio Skywarn net activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ560-564>567.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sawtelle
AVIATION...Rogers/Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Sawtelle


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