Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 221948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1248 PM MST Sun May 22 2022

A broad area of low pressure will stay positioned just to the
north of the region over the couple of days, keeping temperatures
near normal while skies remain generally clear. As high pressure
spreads over the region during the middle part of the week, a
warming trend will push highs across the lower deserts above 100
degrees by Wednesday and likely at or just above 105 degrees for
Thursday and Friday. A slight cool down is then likely starting
next weekend, but temperatures should remain a few degrees above
normal for the holiday weekend as dry conditions persist.


Very little change in the weather pattern today, as broad
troughing remains in place across the CONUS. Thus, we can expect
afternoon breezes to ~20 mph, seasonable temperatures, and some
passing clouds from time to time. Very similar conditions are
expected Monday and Tuesday, with slightly breezier wind gusts.
The combination of breezy and dry conditions will keep fire
weather concerns elevated mainly across southern Gila county.
Heights will also slowly start to climb as riding begins to build
into the west coast, so temperatures will also be on an uphill
climb. In Phoenix, the chance for 100 degrees jumps from close to
0% today to ~30% Tuesday. In Yuma, it jumps from 0% today to ~20%
Tuesday. In Imperial, it jumps from 0% today to ~60% Tuesday.

The aforementioned ridge then builds over our region Wednesday
into Friday. Guidance is coming into better agreement, suggesting
that this ridge will be suppressed to the south and east by an
another incoming trough starting Friday. Due to this, the
temperatures for end of next week have been trending a little bit
cooler and the EFI is also trending downward. Thus, its
currently looking like high temperatures will most likely peak on
Thursday, near or a little over 105 degrees. In Phoenix, the
chance of reaching 105 degrees is currently 45% on Thursday. In
Yuma, the chance is less than 5%. In Imperial, the chance is 20%.
Temperatures will still remain very warm on Friday before dropping
a little closer to the 100 degree mark for the holiday weekend.
Overall, moderate HeatRisk is expected across most locations with
this next heat wave. Parts of the Phoenix metro area are showing
high HeatRisk Thursday and Friday due to warmer overnight
temperatures (in the mid to upper 70s). Its that time of year
again, so always remember to drink plenty of water, check on your
neighbors, and never ever leave a child or pet in the car.

Dry conditions are expected to persist through at least the next
week. The last time Phoenix and Yuma saw measurable rain was at
the end of March and its looking like we will be ending this
month with zero precipitation.


.AVIATION...Updated at 1755Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT &
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Seasonal diurnal trends are expected through Monday, with wind
speeds mostly 10 kts or less and afternoon/evening breezes up to
15-20 kts. Sundowner wind gusts at KIPL may peak in the mid-20s
for a couple hours this evening. Extended periods of variability
will be possible in the morning hours. Skies will be mostly clear
with FEW high clouds at times.


The combo of breezy winds and very dry conditions will lead to
elevated fire weather concerns across southern Gila county through
early this work week and potentially again end of this work week.
Through the early part of the week, expect daily afternoon
breezes up to ~20 mph. High pressure will eventually build back
over the region during the middle of the week leading to a warming
trend and temperatures climbing to well above normal by Thursday.
A slight increase in winds also looks possible late in the week
with a return of afternoon gusty winds above 20 mph. MinRHs will
drop back to around 10% before mainly holding between 5-10% during
the latter half of the week.




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