Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150921
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
321 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal heat continues today, with Heat Advisories
  remaining in effect across portions of our plains.

- Increasing coverage for showers and thunderstorms is expected
  for today, with outflow winds gusting up to 60 mph possible
  across our plains.

- Strong to severe thunderstorm, along with flash flooding,
  risks increases Tuesday and Wednesday, with daily shower and
  thunderstorm chances persisting into the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday and continue into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Currently..

Radar imagery shows dissipating showers over our far eastern plains
and southern mountains as of 3 AM, with no lightning left across our
area for the past few hours. One of these collapsing showers just
caused a heat burst a Lamar, where a 42kt wind gust and 20 degree
temperature jump from 75 to 95 (at 3 AM!) was just recorded.
Satellite reveals thick mid and upper-level cloud cover across our
eastern plains, which has helped to keep temperatures in the upper
70s for many locations, with the obvious exception of Lamar, who is
currently sitting at 95 this hour after their heat burst. Dewpoints
are in the mid to upper 40s, which is notably higher than yesterday
for most locations.

Today and Tonight..

Models continue to weaken the high overhead today, allowing the
upper-ridge to sag southwestward throughout the day. Models have
also trended another couple of degrees cooler with afternoon
temperatures today, especially along the I-25 corridor. Daytime high
temperatures are still expected to be around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, and are also forecast to be within just a couple of degrees
of daily records for both KCOS and KPUB, but a noticeable
improvement is expected with the heat for this afternoon across our
plains. All of that said, a Heat Advisory remains in place for El
Paso, Pueblo, Otero, Bent, Prowers, and eastern Fremont counties for
this afternoon, where above normal temperatures and one last day of
94 to 104 degree heat is forecast. Expect the worst of the heat to
come early in the afternoon across the I-25 corridor, as convective
cloud cover should help to take the edge off by around 2 to 3 pm for
most mountain adjacent locations.

As the high weakens, better moisture begins to make its way into our
region as the northern periphery of the weakening ridge sags south
across our area today. This will allow for better coverage of
thunderstorms, and better chances for meaningful rainfall out of
thunderstorms as well, especially over the high country. The SPC has
outlined portions of our eastern plains, along with El Paso County,
for a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today, with the main
risk being damaging winds gusting in excess of 60 mph. Though the
risk for dry lightning fire starts seems much less likely for today
than what we saw yesterday, inverted V forecast soundings and close
to 2000 J/Kg of DCAPE still look to prevail across the plains,
suggesting that gusty thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible
with storms again this afternoon, especially earlier in the day. Our
first, weaker cold push arrives later this afternoon and into this
evening, which will help to keep overnight lows a few degrees cooler
than we`ve been the past several nights, but still about 2 to 3
degrees warmer than normal for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Anticipate the upper ridge to breakdown on Tuesday, as a cold
front moves across the area. Still expect temps to be lower on
this day, though the highest temps could still reach the mid to
potentially upper 90s over the plains. Still some variability as
to how the low to mid levels respond on Tuesday, which will be
key as to the extent of the moisture/instability return across
the plains. Should see the low to mid levels veer more easterly
during the day, which should allow the moisture and instability
to push west across the plains. Once again, the extent of this
push is still in questions, but feel fairly confident that this
push will at least make it into the eastern plains. Then
anticipate stronger mid level energy to propagate overhead
Tuesday afternoon, as additional focus/support arrives via lee
troughing. This increase in forcing/focus, moisture and
instability, along with some increases in flow and shear, will
support the risk for strong to severe storms across the plains
Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The coverage and intensity
of any severe storms will be in response to how the moisture and
instability evolve.

By Wednesday, will see even cooler temperatures across the
area. Guidance in fair agreement with deep and persistent east
southeast flow in place, flow that will likely push into the
higher terrain. This will support a further westward expansion
of this moisture and instability, all of which will support
another day of thunderstorm development over and near the higher
terrain and into the I-25 corridor. Some risk for strong to
severe development on Wednesday, but will be growing more
concerned for heavy rainfall and the possibility of flash
flooding, especially as PWATs will be on the rise.

Will see the upper ridge trying to build back in across the
region Thursday into Friday with some warming temperatures,
though still remaining near normal for this time of the year. An
active and wetter pattern is still appearing possible during
this time and even into the weekend, with daily shower and
thunderstorm development expected across southern Colorado.
While can`t rule out stronger development, think the risk of
heavy rains would be the trend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS for the next 24 hours. Winds become westerly at KALS and
northeasterly at KCOS and KPUB after 18Z this afternoon, ahead of
increasing chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms at all
three stations. The most likely timeframe for storms on station
today will be from around 21Z to 02Z. Main risks with storms today
will be erratic outflow winds gusting up to 60 mph.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
for COZ083>086-093-097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...EHR