785
FXUS65 KPUB 140426
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today,
  mainly over and near higher terrain.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow,
  some of which could be strong to severe, with the primary
  hazards being damaging winds and small hail.

- Heavy rainfall will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night
  for the Eastern Mountains, out into the I-25 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Satellite and radar imagery depict lots of cumulus build up and
isolated weak thunderstorm activity over the La Garitas, the
Sangres, and the Wet Mountains as of 2pm. Temperatures are in upper
60s and low 70s across the plains and mountain valleys. Cu is
starting to push into the plains. Winds are northerly across the
plains, and showers are pushing north to south as well. Dewpoints
are in the 30s across our plains.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

We are sort of in-between systems today with northwesterly flow
aloft behind the departing low that is currently pushing across the
midwest. This will keep storm coverage more isolated today. High res
model guidance continues to develop isolated showers and weak
thunderstorms over the high country early this afternoon, with some
weaker convection pushing off the terrain and into the I-25
corridor, and into the San Luis Valley later this afternoon and this
evening. Though storms are expected to be weak and isolated today,
gusty outflows to 40 mph will be possible, along with lightning.
Once showers and storms clear out this evening, winds are expected
to be calm through the overnight hours, with temperatures cooling to
near normal for most locations.

Tomorrow..

Models bring a shortwave southeastward across the northern Rockies
tonight and into tomorrow. This feature will interact with the
moisture in place over Colorado, along with a low sitting off shore
over southern California, to bring us more chances for showers and
thunderstorms for our Tuesday. Models also bring a weak cold front
southward across our plains late tomorrow afternoon and into
tomorrow evening. This front will help to initiate showers and
thunderstorms across our plains tomorrow. Mountain convection looks
to get started as early as Noon tomorrow, spreading eastward and
into the I-25 corridor quickly throughout the early afternoon hours,
especially north of highway 50. Forecast soundings show inverted V
profiles with around 1000 to 1500 J/kg of DCAPE, suggesting that
damaging winds with gusts to 60 mph will be possible with storms
tomorrow. Small hail to around 1/2 inch diameter also looks possible
with storms tomorrow, especially near any interacting boundaries.
Tomorrow`s high temperatures will be highly dependent on frontal
timing and on the amount of convective cloud cover that we see in
the early afternoon hours, but high res model guidance suggests that
a majority of the plains, especially along and south of highway 50,
could warm well into the mid to upper 80s before the front passes.
Our mountain valleys and areas north of highway 50 will likely
remain in the 70s for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Overall, models are in good agreement through much of the
extended, with differences arising by Sunday into early next
week.  Broad upper troughing will persist across the Rockies
through Thursday, with high pressure building across the region
Friday into the weekend. The next upper storm system looks to
arrive for early next week, however, model guidance and
ensembles differ on strength and speed of the upper trough.

Tuesday night through Thursday...broad upper troughing will
persist across the region, with multiple embedded waves moving
across Colorado in northwesterly flow.  Ongoing showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening across the Plains.
Model sounding guidance indicates dry low levels and inverted V
soundings, with a strong wind potential through the evening
hours. Small hail and brief moderate to heavy rainfall will be
possible before midnight, with activity waning into Wednesday
morning. A cold front/outflow boundary will shift flow
northeasterly advecting moisture back across the Plains.

The main concern for Wednesday looks like the potential for heavy
rainfall along the Eastern Mountains, out into the I-25
corridor. Northeasterly upslope flow at the surface, with
combine with modest low level moisture, with dewpoints in the
40s and energy dropping south across the Plains to produce
widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values near 0.75
inches, which is about 140 percent of normal for this time of
year, will help allow for efficient rain producers. QPF amounts
through Wednesday night of half to near an inch may be possible.
Given the already saturated grounds from recent rains,
localized flooding may be possible, especially in low lying,
flood prone areas. This area of rain and embedded thunderstorms
will push east into Kansas Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Upper level ridging will begin to build east across Colorado
on Thursday.  Residual moisture, weak energy moving across the
region as the upper wave departs to the east and daytime heating
will likely lead to a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Temperatures during this period look pleasant, with highs in
the 60s and 70s across the Plains, and 60s across the San Luis Valley.

Friday through Monday...upper level ridging will shift across
Colorado Friday into Saturday, before the next upper storm
system takes shape across the western conus. Temperatures will
warm through the weekend with highs in the 70s to 80s across the
region. Mostly dry conditions are expected, however, a few
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the higher
terrain. The next upper storm system will arrive Sunday into
Monday, with increasing southwesterly and possible showers and
thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty of the strength and timing
of the upper system, did not stray away from NBM guidance at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1023 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The only concern could be a brief
period of SHRA/-TSRA tomorrow late afternoon. Winds will be
breezy from a westerly component during the afternoon tomorrow.
Otherwise light winds are anticipated.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH