000
FXUS61 KRLX 260745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
245 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope flow overnight into Sunday with rain and snow showers to
close out the weekend. Another upper trough crosses Monday and
perhaps another midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Sunday...

Wrap around moisture in accordance with a slow moving upper
level low pressure system and embedded short waves has allowed
narrow concentrations of snow showers to pass through the area
late tonight. Greater chance for accumulations resides over the
mountains overnight, but did elect to leave a corridor of
snow showers along the northern extent of the forecast area to
account for snow plumes working through the Ohio Valley,
resulting in a coating on grassy surfaces for the lowlands.

With a veil of clouds here to stay for the foreseeable future,
temperatures overnight will likely hold steady around freezing
in the lowlands and low to mid 20s for the higher terrain.
Daytime heating will be the most evident in the southern
coalfields on Sunday, where temperatures are expected to rise
into the low 40s, while elsewhere only a few degree difference
will be evident from the morning to the time of peak heating.

While the aforementioned low continues to track into New England
on Sunday, a southern stream system will sneak up from the
southern Gulf coast late Sunday evening, introducing rain and
snow showers back into the southern half of the forecast area.
Temperatures in the southern WV coalfields and into southwest VA
will still be sitting in the upper 30s as precip travels up into
Central Appalachia, so the transition to snow will unlikely
occur in the near term. On the other hand, the northeast WV
mountains will already have been subjected to sub-freezing
temperatures through the day Sunday, so snow showers will
continue in earnest through the entirety of the near term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

A southern system will continue to affect the southern and
eastern portions of the area with mixed precipitation as it
moves toward the northeast on Monday. Some models still show
this only clipping the very southern part of the area, but
others show it farther north. The mountains may see some
freezing rain on Monday with this system, however this should
transition to upslope snow by Monday night. The snow should
dissipate by Tuesday afternoon as the system moves out of the
area and weak high pressure approaches the area Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

The weak surface high pressure will continue to keep the area
dry throughout the morning on Wednesday. A trough approaches the
area, moving toward the northeast, later on Wednesday that may
lead to mixed precipitation across the area with predominantly
snow in the mountains. However, the models differ in the
intensity of this disturbance, particularly with the GFS showing
an upper low crossing the area as the GFS and Canadian show a
weak trough. By Thursday, the models are showing disagreement
in the timing of a ridge passing over the area before the next
possible system approaches. The Canadian brings the ridge over
faster than the GFS, and the ECMWF shows it passing through the
slowest.

On Friday, the GFS shows a low pressure system approaching from
the south and moving through the area to the northeast
throughout the weekend. The Canadian and ECMWF also show a low
pressure system moving toward the northeast over the weekend.
However, the Canadian has the placement of the low farther to
the northwest than the GFS shows and the ECMWF shows the low
even farther north than the other two models. Thus, the models
are showing lots of a disagreement with this system and with how
much it may affect the area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Sunday...

Light rain and snow showers flowing into the region along west
to southwesterly flow will bank up against the mountains for the
remainder of the overnight period. During which time, we could
see brief drops in visibility and ceilings as temperatures drop
and switch over all hydrometeors to snow. Elected to portray
this possibility using TEMPO groups at all terminals aside from
CRW and HTS from the start of this issuance to 09Z. Otherwise,
the entire region will be veiled beneath MVFR stratus through
the period, and unfortunately into midweek as low level moisture
spiral in from the disturbance sitting over the Great Lakes. IFR
or worse ceilings may come about again along the mountains
Sunday night into Monday with additional nocturnal snow showers.

Winds will remain predominantly out of the west to southwest
during this period. May see afternoon gusts pick up at CKB and
EKN to near 20 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceiling heights and/or flight categories
may vary, especially with snow showers in the mountains
overnight into Sunday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 01/26/20
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR/LIFR possible in rain and snow showers, and possibly
drizzle, Sunday night through Monday night, particularly across
the higher terrain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK/CG
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...MEK