698
FXUS61 KRLX 130837
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
437 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No significant changes to the previous forecast package. Mainly
just slightly drier with little to no chances for precipitation for
the new work week and into midweek.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
with a cold frontal passage. The primary hazard is damaging
downburst winds, though localized flash flooding is definitely
possible if areas are hit repeatedly or heavy downpours exceed
flash flood guidance in low lying or flood prone areas.

2. Dry and slightly cooler conditions build in for today, with
areas of fog expected early this morning. After Sunday the dry
conditions return for the new work week and into midweek amid
surface high pressure and zonal flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Although there is some uncertainty to the extent of severe
thunderstorms on Sunday as a cold frontal passage is expected,
strong to severe storms will remain a possibility for the
afternoon and evening until frontal passage is expected at
night.

Guidance generally suggests that destabilization during the day
along with 30-40 kts of bulk shear will be sufficient enough to
promote potential for organized convection. While the area will
be in the warm sector until cold frontal passage the warm
sector could destabilization enough to support a risk for
severe development as warm moist air is pumped in from the
south during daytime heating.

The main threat will be damaging wind, however a tornado or two
could not be ruled out completely with some helicity and low
LCLs hanging around. Hail could be a factor, but with high
freezing levels most hail will melt before reaching the surface
as large hail. Organized lines or embedded clusters of a few
waves of storms may become strong to severe with the potential
for downbursts as water loaded soundings are very moist in the
low and mid levels with substantial DCAPE values and PWATs
supporting values as high as 2 inches. Hi-res models have a few
waves of convection in line with this scenario of broken lines
and clusters impeding the area during the afternoon and into
the evening.

Heavy downpours will be a concern from looking at forecast
soundings where long skinny CAPE and heavy loaded water profiles
suggest high rain rates under heavy thunderstorm activity which
will promote the possibility of localized flooding. If areas
are hit repeatedly, especially under high rain rates exceeding
flash flood guidance, this will definitely pose a threat to low
lying and flood prone areas.

As the cold front sweeps through Sunday night and exits to the
east the region will clear out and become dead flow amid surface
high pressure along with the potential for valley fog to
develop by Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Clearing skies and light wind is creating the perfect setup
along with significant radiational cooling which has allowed
for extensive valley fog to develop already. This fog will
become denser by mid morning and will lift and dissipate by
13Z. Some areas in the deeper valleys may be subject to dense
fog which could make traveling difficult, but will improve with
sufficient daylight just after sunrise.

After the fog dissipates the region will clear out fairly well
allowing for plenty of sunshine to keep the region warm
although it will feel slightly cooler as dewpoints will remain
a lot lower than they have been. Also a factor that will help is
northwesterly flow bringing in some cooler air to the region.

With a dry day ahead things take a complete turn for Sunday,
however by the new work week, as the cold frontal passage takes
place Sunday night, Monday opens up dry and settled weather
amid surface high pressure and zonal flow into midweek with
below seasonable temperatures expected.

The next chance for rain will be later on Wednesday as a short
wave affects the region with another cold front that is forecast
to impede the area and pass through on Thursday. Chances of rain
will become a factor late Wednesday and increase as the front
progresses further into the area. Models are not in the best
agreement on timing of this feature and some models have the
cold frontal boundary stalling across the area through Friday.
For this reason, central guidance keeps high probabilities for
rain on Thursday through Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Valley fog will plague most sites this morning until lifting
and clearing out by 13Z. Some of the sites could vary from the
TAFs if VIS restrictions start to bounce up and down.
Thereafter, VFR conditions return areawide through the day with
light flow out of the northwest and mostly clear skies.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development timing and density could
vary this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 06/13/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief periods of IFR visibility possible in thunderstorms Sunday.
IFR conditions in fog is possible Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ