869
FXUS61 KRLX 241036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
636 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier but gusty conditions are expected today. The next system
brings a few rounds of showers Tuesday into Wednesday. The week
looks to end with a significant warm-up.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

Precipitation has already departed the lowlands and should be
making its way out of the mountains in the next couple of
hours. No significant changes to the near term forecast are
needed at this time.

As of 410 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Dry and windy behind a cold front today, winds ease overnight.
* Earlier rainfall will help limit fire weather concerns.

Ongoing precipitation has already shifted east of the Ohio River and
will continue to taper off from west to east as a cold front moves
through early this morning. Surface high pressure gains control
behind the front resulting in dry weather throughout the area by
late morning.

Expect winds to strengthen during the day, with 30 to 40 mph gusts
likely for much of the area this afternoon. Occasional gusts could
surpass 40 mph, particularly over the higher mountain ridges.
Although winds will be blustery, and relative humidity is expected
to descend into the 20 to 30 percent range, this morning`s rainfall
should help suppress the fire weather risk for today.

Winds gradually ease overnight, while dry weather persists for the
majority of the area. Moisture eventually starts edging in from the
southwest as a disturbance approaches towards daybreak Tuesday.

High temperatures are projected to reach mid 50s to low 60s in the
lowlands and mid 40s to 50s in the mountains. Overnight lows then
fall into the 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

A weak but complicated system will impact the region during this
period, and in reality it is more a rapid series of weak short-
wave disturbances rotating around the base of a broader trough
than it is one coherent system. The precip associated with the
first weak wave looks to move into the CWA right around sunrise
on Tuesday, if not at the tail end of the near-term period. From
Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning, there will likely be
several waves of showers, with some breaks in between. Rainfall
totals are forecast ot range from a quarter to a third of an
inch over the southern half of the area, to less than a tenth of
an inch along much of the northern tier of counties. Some snow
is possible over the mountains, especially Tuesday night, but
it is likely to be an inch or less even on the highest northern
peaks, and much of that just on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces.

In terms of temperatures, it will be a bit cooler than normal
due to the clouds and rain. Highs both days will be in the upper
40s to mid-50s at lower elevations, with mid-30s to mid-40s in
the mountains. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper 20s in
the northern mountains to the mid-30s across the southwestern
part of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM Monday...

The area will dry out on Thursday courtesy of high pressure
swinging overhead, which will help to keep winds in check for
the most part. Between the recent rains, lighter winds, and
gradual greening around the area, don`t anticipate much in the
way of fire weather concerns on Thursday, even if the humidity
does drop down towards the 25 percent threshold.

The forecast then gets more complicated towards the weekend,
with a warm front forecast to move across the Midwest and into
the Great Lakes on Friday. Guidance is not in much agreement on
whether or not we`ll see any showers or storms as this passes
north, so for now we keep POPs below 50 percent on Friday, and
chances increase as you move further north and west. What does
seem more certain is a surge of warm air for Friday into the
weekend, with highs climbing 5-10 degrees above normal for
Friday, and warmer still over the weekend.

Currently, Saturday seems to be a bit of a lull in the warm
sector of that system moving through the central part of North
America, so POPs are generally slight chance at best that day,
but given the uncertainty and disagreement, we`ll have to keep
an eye on that possibly changing. With the warming weather over
the weekend, and the expectation of some Gulf moisture to surge
northward, it looks like we may need to keep an eye out for
severe potential next Sunday, but that could be highly dependent
on the timing of any storms and/or frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

MVFR to IFR flight conditions will improve as drier air works
into the area behind a cold front this morning. VFR is then
expected for the remainder of the TAF period, though ceilings
should start to lower as the next system approaches from the
southwest early Tuesday.

Gusty west to southwest winds will strengthen during the day, with
25 to 35 kt gusts expected across the majority of the area this
afternoon. Occasional gusts could even approach 40 kts,
particularly along the higher mountain ridges. Winds eventually
weaken after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Time of improvement to VFR may vary from
the forecast. Gusty winds will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 03/24/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JLB