Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 010709
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
209 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits tonight, allowing the next system to bring
precipitation later Friday into Saturday. High pressure brings
a dry, much warmer finish to the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...

High pressure rules the roost with mainly clear, chilly and
increasingly calm conditions through tonight.

A southern stream system approaching from the southwest was
already beginning to introduce cirrus cloud, which will
increase through tonight, and then lower and thicken on Friday.
Rain is likely to overspread the area from south to north Friday
afternoon, as the southern stream short wave trough approaching
from the west-southwest provides mid-upper level forcing
concurrent with low-mid level warm advection.

While the column will warm up just enough for just rain just in
time as the precipitation moves in, the high exiting to the east
of the area sets up a cold air damming wedge along the eastern
slopes of the mountains, keeping the column just cold enough
for mixed wintry precipitation there. Precipitation amounts
will be light, and freezing rain amounts will depend upon how
quickly low-mid level warming takes place in relation to the
slowly rising surface temperatures along the eastern slopes and
higher terrain of the northern mountains.

We continue the HWO highlight for potential freezing rain in
the high terrain and eastern slopes, which could necessitate a
special weather statement or even a winter weather advisory,
should confidence increase.

Undercut central guidance in the valleys away from rivers for
lows tonight under calm, mainly clear conditions, and along the
eastern slopes Friday afternoon for the cold air damming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

Saturday, a shortwave trough will still be impacting the area with
rainfall and some freezing rain in the morning hours for the
northeastern mountains. Models still differ on end time with
this system; GFS and CMC-NH shutting it off by Saturday
afternoon, NAM12 and ECMWF keeping some moisture along the
mountains into the afternoon.

Regardless, the heaviest will be moving out with only
a few hundredths of an inch of rain being picked up into the
afternoon. Warm southerly flow in place will cause temperatures
to be quite mild and they will be warmer than Friday,
especially as a ridge of high pressure starts to build in
Saturday evening to segue into a drier pattern Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Friday...

Sunday starts a drier pattern under the influence of high
pressure with subtle ridging aloft and high pressure just to our
east. This dry spell will last into Monday with temperatures
Sunday and Monday much above average. Rain chances return
Tuesday and Wednesday with a few shortwave disturbance passing
through the area. Temperatures look to be above normal through
the end of the week.

Uncertainty lies going into next weekend as a larger wave of
energy of the midwest looms on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Friday...

VFR conditions with just gradually increasing high clouds are
expected through around 18z Friday, with a mid-level deck then
moving in quickly from the southwest after that time. Some
patches of lighter rain may move in to the area from the SW after
18z. However, rain wasn`t made a prevailing condition for the
southern terminals until between 21z and 00z Saturday, and
reaching the northern terminals between 00z and 03z Saturday.
Any flight category reductions to MVFR in lower CIGs and/or VSBY
should hold off until after 00z for most, with the possible
exception of BKW, which could see MVFR conditions a bit earlier.

Some gusty SE`ly winds are expected to develop after 12z in the
mountains, impacting BKW, and may spread to CRW and EKN after
21z or 00z. CRW and EKN gusts may reach 15-20kts after 00z
Saturday. BKW gusts of 15-25kts are expected before 00z, and may
exceed 25kts after 00z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of gusty winds developing across the
mountains on Friday may vary from forecast. Timing of
precipitation and any lowering of ceilings may vary from
forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 03/01/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible along the mountains Friday night into
Saturday in precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...FK


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