Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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013
FXUS61 KRNK 221342
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
942 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Another front moves across the area today with strong winds
associated with it. High pressure will move overhead for the
weekend, providing dry weather with winds diminishing, and
temperatures favoring the cooler side of normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 942 AM EDT Friday...

Made some minor adjustments to temperature utilizing the latest
surface obs, their trends and shaped late morning into this
afternoon towards the NBM. The regional radar showing the bands
of rain and snow tapering off as expected this morning. Then, behind
the cold front, redevelopment of upslope snow showers and snow
flurries expected in the western mountains. Winter Weather
Advisory for western Greenbrier looks good. The wind advisory is
on the mark with gusty winds already showing up along the
ridges in the highest elevations. The AWOS at Boone has reported
a gust of 53 mph this morning. More changes expected later this
morning...


As of 350 AM EDT Friday...

Rain and snow showers spilling east to the Blue Ridge early this
morning in association with 8h front and upslope. Should see a lull
in the precip this morning until the next front over the Great Lakes
to Central Plains pushes in by midday. Coldest air will not get into
the region until late this afternoon/evening, so snowfall should be
mainly confined to grassy surfaces today given stronger March
sun angle. However, the western slopes of Greenbrier could push 2 to
4 inches, and some of the roads could get slushy, so not making any
changes to the winter weather advisory.

The bigger weather issue will be the winds. The models have been
fairly consistent the last 2-4 days of showing a decent wind event
for most of the area as 40 to 50 kts exists at the top of the mixed
layer, and during the day today some of this will make it to the
ground. This despite no major pressure rises. Per coordination with
NWS Raleigh and Wakefield,  the piedmont will stay under advisory
levels so no wind advisory for them but still expect gusts close to
40 mph this afternoon. Went with a wind advisory for the foothills
west to the mountains through early Sat morning. The strongest winds
will occur behind the front this afternoon as cold advection gets
going especially after 2pm. Better pressure rises occur  tonight,
such that the mountains will maintain stronger winds, while the
piedmont starts to subside a little.

As the stronger shortwave pushes in behind the front late this
afternoon/evening may see rain or snow showers or sprinkle/flurries
stretch east toward Amherst and Buckingham.

Temps today will run from the upper 30s in the highest terrain of WV
to 40s elsewhere west of the Blue Ridge, with mid 50s to around 60
to the east.

Tonight, main shortwave lifts out but another weaker wave arrives
late, but moisture is very limited so expect any snow
showers/flurries to fade after midnight. Low temps will range from
the mid to upper 20s in the mountains, to lower 30s in the east.
With the wind, some wind chills could drop into the single digits in
the higher ridges, with teens west of the Blue Ridge.

High confidence on winds and temps, but lower on snowfall
amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Saturday will be blustery with any lingering flurries west of the Ridge
dissipating during the morning. High pressure surface and aloft then
builds over the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region with fair
weather for the remainder of the weekend. It looks like the next chance
for precipitation associated with a low moving through the midsection
of the country will hold off and allow for a dry Sunday to close out
the weekend with showers arriving from the west Sunday night.

As the low moves through a trailing cold front will cross the area and
bring widespread showers Monday afternoon into the evening. Convective
potential looks low enough to omit from the forecast for now, but
some rumbles of thunder are not out of the question. Falling
temperatures Monday night will allow some wet flakes to mix in at
the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge as precipitation tapers
off.

Expect a solid warming trend with temperatures starting the
period below normal on Saturday, then surging to above normal ahead
of the front on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Return southerly wind flow will bring increasing moisture for
Monday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This
front is expected to briefly stall across the area with a wave
of low pressure developing along the front to our southwest.
This suggests a 24 to 36 hour period, or opportunity, for
wetting rain Tuesday.

With rain likely temperatures may struggle to get any warmer
than the 50s Tuesday. Model consensus is for this storm system
to be progressive and move out of the area later Tuesday with
high pressure and dry weather returning for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 725 AM EDT Friday...

Ceilings will scatter out east of the mountains this morning
with VFR expected. Ceilings will stay MVFR through about 16-18z
in the mountains (BLF, LWB, BCB) with a few snow
showers/flurries at  BLF, possibly LWB. Should see improvement
to VFR early this afternoon before next upstream wave sends cigs
back to MVFR in the mountains with another round of snow
showers. Overall keeping vsbys VFR.

Winds will be the bigger issue as they increase from 270 to 300
degrees and gust as high as 30 to 40kts, strongest at ROA/BCB.

Winds will start to ease in the piedmont Friday evening but stay
somewhat gusty in the mountains. As the shortwave moves away
late tonight, some improvement in cigs expected, with gusts
falling off to around 15 to 25kt.

Confidence is high on cigs/vsbys thru the period and medium on
wind gusts.


EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR conditions expected Saturday into Sunday. Sub-VFR
conditions are possible Monday and possibly into Tuesday with
rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Strong Gusty Winds Expected Today into Tonight!

Expect good drying conditions today, mainly east of the
mountains of WV/far SW VA. The rainfall yesterday will keep
fuels wetter, but fine fuels should dry out fast by later this
afternoon. The humidity levels will sink to around 25 to 35
percent.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph across the mountains and foothills
are expect, and 35 to 45 mph across the piedmont.

Those areas especially just east of the Blue Ridge may be
subject to increase Fire Danger today. The colder temperatures
and elevated humidity will help mitigate anything extreme, but
some areas from Virginia`s USFS Eastern Divide, south into
western North Carolina may experience near critical conditions
due to the magnitude of the wind speeds and lack of appreciable
rainfall.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035.
NC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ042>044-507.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AL/KK/WP
FIRE WEATHER...PM/WP



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