Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
637 FXUS61 KRNK 060221 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 921 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation update; otherwise, there have been very few changes to the current forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances of showers will increase during Friday and the upcoming weekend and again by the latter half of next week. 2) Above normal temperatures continue. Record or near record highs and lows are possible; please see the Climate section below. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Chances of showers will increase during Friday and the upcoming weekend and again by the latter half of next week. A weak low pressure system will pass to the north across northern West Virginia during this evening into Friday. This system could spark a few showers along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. With the abnormal warmth expected by Friday afternoon, there may be enough instability and orographical convergence to spark isolated showers along the Blue Ridge. A stray thunderstorm may be possible across northwest North Carolina. The better chance of convection may come during late Saturday across the mountains when a cold front approaches from the west. If this convection arrives quickly enough to tap into the available instability, there could be a marginal threat of damaging winds. However, confidence is still low on this severe risk as most of the activity may not arrive until after sunset, which would inhibit the intensity of any storms. Showers should continue into Sunday as a cold front crosses the Appalachian Mountains. Any chances of convection will shift towards Southside Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont on Sunday afternoon, but cooler and drier air will end the threat by Sunday night. The cold front should weaken and stall across the Southeast, and this lingering boundary may allow for isolated showers to develop through parts of early next week. Meanwhile, another cold front should organize along the Mississippi River Valley in response to an upper level low over northern Mexico. Because the models struggle significantly with the timing of ejecting these southern stream upper level lows eastward, it is difficult to pinpoint when the next opportunity for decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms will occur. At this point, the latter half of next week is the best bet for increasing chances of convection. KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures continue. Record or near record highs and lows are possible; please see the Climate section below. The southeastern United States and Mid Atlantic region will be on the northern periphery of Bermuda ridging through Saturday. By Sunday, a ribbon of short wave energy stretched across the middle of the country, but anchored to a closed low in Baja, CA, will begin to suppress ridging to our south. This will leave the door open for a steady stream of short wave energy through next week as the upper low ejects into TX. Likewise, the Gulf of America will be wide open, with predominantly SW winds funneling moisture into the region. This will result in periods of cloud cover and rain showers. We will be mainly in the warm air associated with these systems through Wednesday next week. The exception will be the mountains Sunday with a cold front passage. Building heights, compressional warming, and SSW winds will supports high temperatures well above normal most of the period. Ensemble members show very little spread as far as temperatures most days, except for Sunday, when widespread rain is expected with the frontal passage. There is a near 100 percent chance for temperatures to warm above 75 degrees Friday east of a North Wilkesboro to Roanoke line, while this same area sees about a 40 to 60 percent chance Saturday. For the mountains, low to mid 70s are likely through Saturday, before dropping into the 60s Sunday. We remain warm into next week, and a look at NAEFS situational awareness tables show about a +2 to +3 standard deviation temperature-wise during this time. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails is almost maxed out in the maximum and minimum temperatures categories through midweek next, indicating an extreme heat event is more likely than usual. Record or near record highs and lows are possible; please see the Climate section below. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are widespread this evening, and will remain so for the majority of the next 24 hours. The few light showers that had been occurring near LWB have dissipated or moved further north and away from the site. Mid to high level clouds will remain through much of the night, but will generally remain above 5kft. Some patchy valley fog may cause brief vsby issues before dawn. Otherwise, Friday will be a partly cloudy, warm day with only isolated chances for showers in the afternoon. Confidence in rain impacting any TAF sites is low enough that it has not been included in any TAFs at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Higher and more widespread chances for rain, sub-VFR conditions, and perhaps thunderstorms arrive Saturday into Sunday with a cold frontal passage. Some rain chances linger into Monday. Nightly chances for fog will also be expected, as warm, humid air surges into the region. && .CLIMATE... Friday 03/06/2026 Site MaxT Year HiMin Year MaxForecast MinForecast KBLF 74 1956 55 1961 73 56 KDAN 82 1976 61 1961 81 56 KLYH 80 1956 58 2022 79 57 KROA 80 1956 59 1961 81 57 KRNK 76 1976 55 1946 76 53 Saturday 03/07/2026 Site MaxT Year HiMin Year MaxForecast MinForecast KBLF 75 1921 56 1961 72 57 KDAN 82 1961 56 1961 78 59 KLYH 81 2022 58 1956 77 55 KROA 83 2009 62 1956 79 58 KRNK 75 1921 48 2024 74 56 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PW/SH AVIATION...AS/VFJ CLIMATE...SH