Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 200526
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
925 PM PST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and continued mild this weekend under a passing ridge aloft. A
deepening trough will bring cooler weather on Monday as the marine
layer surges back inland on westerly winds, which will become strong
from the mountain tops to the desert slopes Sunday night into
Monday. Clouds, and even a few light showers, are possible along and
west of the mountains Sunday night through Monday morning.
Conditions will warm Tuesday through Friday with gusty northeast
winds on the coastal foothills, especially strong Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...High wind Warning issued for the Mountains and Wind Advisories
issued for the deserts for Sunday night into Monday.
...Small Craft Advisory issued for the Coastal Waters.

Moderate offshore sfc pressure gradients continue to support NE
winds along the coastal foothills with peak gusts 30-35 MPH at 8 PM
PST. The 00Z Miramar sounding had weak NE flow around 15 KT below 5K
FT with warming of 6-8C. A few wispy cirrus clouds were drifting
from west to east across SoCal with out any marine clouds.

The forecast was updated earlier in the evening to issue the Wind
Warnings/Advisories. A Small Craft Advisory was issued as well over
the Coastal Waters. NAEFS wind return intervals are projected to be
around 30 yrs, and the latest 00Z model guidance still shows some
850 wind speeds over SoCal exceeding 50 KTS on Monday supporting
the Warnings and Advisories. No other updates this evening.

From previous discussion...

Gusty offshore winds likely again tonight through Sunday morning but
again, not likely to reach advisory thresholds. Offshore flow will
weaken Sunday and transition to onshore Sunday night and become
quite strong by Monday morning. Gusty onshore winds through the
mountains and along the desert slopes and the desert floor will
likely reach advisory thresholds for most areas with remote
locations possibly reaching warning criteria by Monday morning. Will
likely require wind headlines in the next shift or two for late
Sunday night or Monday morning through Monday afternoon.

Some light showers still possible Monday morning, mainly west of
the mountains, as a strong trough, mainly as an inside slider,
passes through SoCal through Monday evening along with a sharp
cold front.

Offshore flow will develop late Monday night and become strong
Tuesday morning through Tuesday night with another possibility of
wind headlines for locations west of the mountains. Offshore flow
will become lighter through the remainder of next week but very
warm conditions will persist basically from Wednesday through the
end of the week with temperatures likely to ring up 10 to 20
degrees above normal west of the mountains during this time, with
periodic gusty offshore winds, but otherwise with tranquil weather
conditions for all areas as a relatively strong upper ridge
persists across the West Coast into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
200515Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN clouds above 20000 ft MSL and
unrestricted vis will prevail through Sunday. Stratus will increase
Sunday night and could arrive at coastal airports between 04Z and
06Z with bases likely in the 1000-2000 ft MSL range.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds above 20000 ft MSL will prevail
through Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds will increase in the coastal waters Sunday night and
continue through Monday night. Winds will be 20-30 knots with
highest winds Monday and in the outer coastal waters beyond 30 nm.
Some gusts could approach gale force near San Clemente Island. Winds
will turn northeast by Tuesday and generally be lighter except for
some local gusts over 20 knots near San Mateo Point.

Another west-northwest swell will move through the coastal waters
Monday and Monday night, generally from 290-295 degrees but with
relatively short periods of 8-10 seconds. Combined seas will likely
reach 10 feet in the outer coastal waters from the swell and the
wind waves.

&&

.BEACHES...
A west-northwest swell from 290-295 degrees with a period of 10-11
seconds will bring surf of 4-6 feet Sunday through Monday. The surf
combined with morning high tides of 6.5 to 7.0 feet could produce
minor coastal flooding at flood prone beaches including Seal Beach,
Sunset Beach, Cardiff, and Imperial Beach. A Beach Hazard Statement
is in effect through noon Monday for possible beach flooding during
the early morning high tides.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
 encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday for
     Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-
     San Diego County Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 6 PM PST Monday for San Diego
     County Deserts.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday for Apple
     and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Gorgonio Pass Near
     Banning.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM PST Tuesday for
     Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...10/Brotherton
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Maxwell


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