868
FXUS64 KSHV 130919
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
419 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

The early morning satellite imagery indicates that our pesky upper
low has finally drifted E into Middle TN, with a deeper wedge of
drier air on the subsident side of the low having finally
entrained E into SW AR/much of N LA. In fact, the last of the
isolated -SHRA has shifted to near the MS River across NE LA/Wrn
MS, with the back edge of the wrap-around cigs about to clear MLU
here shortly. In wake of the low, areas of FG has developed over
much of Nrn and Cntrl AR, with satellite imagery (confirmed with
ARDOT traffic cams) indicating the FG straddling the CWA border
with WFO LZK. Not expecting the FG to backbuild too much farther
WSW into our SW AR counties this morning, but did insert patchy FG
mention for this area through mid-morning to accommodate the
potential before the FG lifts after daybreak.

Otherwise, a Srly low level flow will resume today in wake of the
low, with strong insolation yielding a return to hot/above normal
conditions to the region. In fact, this will begin a prolonged
period of hot/humid and in some cases, near record heat especially
as flat ridging aloft begins to build/expand N from the Srn
Plains across the region into the Lower MS Valley Wednesday. While
max temps today with remain below record territory, Wednesday will
be an exception as sfc ridging over Ern CO begins to drift ESE
into Wrn KS, with its attendant sfc trough lifting NE from NE
TX/SE OK into NE OK/Cntrl and Nrn AR through the afternoon. This
will allow for the W TX dryline to mix E into Cntrl OK/TX, with a
more SW component to the wind enhancing the warmup in the bndry
lyr. Still think the NBM is a little too bullish with max temps in
the mid/upper 90s across E TX/Wrn LA, and thus have backed off a
degree or so especially given the wet grounds that persist in wake
of the ample rainfall that has fallen as of late. Daily max temps
records will be challenged across E TX Wednesday, with any triple
digit heat expected to remain well W of the area over Cntrl/SW
TX, especially where stronger drought/moisture deficits exist.
Fortunately, heat indices should only top out near 100 degrees
Wednesday afternoon, and thus, no heat headlines will be needed
attm.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

The period of above normal temps will continue through the long
term period, even as the upper ridge begins to shift NE from the
Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Gulf Coast States Thursday, ahead of
upper troughing that will eject NE from the Cntrl Rockies into the
Midwest. The resultant SW flow aloft will yield an increase in
elevated cigs as early as Wednesday night, which will persist
through at least Friday, thus tapering back max temps slightly
across the region. However, the persistent Srly low level flow
will maintain muggy conditions through the period, characteristic
of morning low clouds that will lift into a scattered cu field by
midday. The NE ejection of the Wrn KS sfc low Thursday into the
Midwest will allow for a weak cold front to shift E into NCntrl
TX/Ern OK by afternoon, before becoming stationary just NW of the
region. The lack of appreciable deep lyr moisture and potential
for capping should negate convection development along this front
Thursday afternoon even as weak perturbations in the SW flow
traverse NE.

The various medium range progs suggest that this bndry may lift
back N Friday morning and wash out, before being replaced by a
weak second front that will eventually become stationary from Ern
OK into Cntrl AR. Low level moisture may deepen sufficiently
enough Friday afternoon for the potential for isolated convection
mainly over Wrn and Cntrl AR (N of our region), although this
convection may help reinforce the bndry farther S into SE OK/SW AR
Friday night. Thus, the introduction of pops back into the
forecast was delayed until this time, which could be reinvigorated
with daytime heating Saturday generally along/N of the I-20
corridor. Timing and extent of convection will likely change over
the coming days pending the placement of any mesoscale bndrys and
perturbations embedded in the WSW flow aloft, but the period of
well above normal temps will continue with max temps in the
lower/mid 90s each day. A deepening upper level trough over the
Desert SW early next week should result in amplification of the
ridging aloft over our region into the MS Valley, thus deflecting
the storm track farther W and N of the area, while also dialing up
an increase in the heat.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR for most, but some IFR at KMLU is
the worst from here. 3-5sm BR in a spot or two around daybreak as
well with light and variable wind until mid morning. Then S/SW
10-20KT backs to S/SE for the evening as a quiet pattern sets in
with our next outlook for convection this weekend. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  88  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  87  65  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  89  69  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  66  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  90  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  90  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  92  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24