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000
FXUS64 KSHV 071900
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
200 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/

Upper ridge centered over central TX continues to strengthen,
effectively ending the nw flow regime we`ve had in place over the
last few days. Remnants of this morning`s convection over ern
OK/wrn AR continue to infringe upon our far nrn areas, but
redevelopment seems to be being squashed by the increasing
subsidence in association with the ridge. Any convection that is
able to get going will most certainly dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating.

Ridge to hold its place through the short term pd. This will spell
much warmer temps than we`ve become accustomed to in August of
2020. Despite climbing temps, heat index values look to remain
below 105 degrees Saturday. Can`t rule out a storm or two with the
sea breeze across our far srn areas, but this possibility is too
remote to warrant anything better than a 10 PoP. /12/

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/

The center of the upper ridge over the region will start to
retrograde back into West Texas on Sunday, putting our eastern and
southern zones on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Southerly flow
will return to those areas, allowing for chances for diurnal sea
breeze convection to return. There should be enough influence from
the aforementioned ridge to provide considerable subsidence across
the region to keep rain chances low and limited to portions of Deep
East Texas and Central Louisiana.  Temperatures will likely warm
into the mid to upper 90s again on Sunday.  When you combined the
warm temperatures with the humidity, heat index values could
approach 105 degrees in many locations, which is near Heat Advisory
criteria.

As we move into early next week, the upper ridge weakens and the
center continues to shift westward into the SW CONUS. Low-level
southerly flow will increase and sea breeze convection will form and
increase in coverage during the afternoon/early evening during peak
heating hours. Chances for this diurnal convection should gradually
increase and spread northwest across the region as we move through
the week.  Models also suggest that additional convection could move
into the CWA from the north next week, as several weak disturbances
will move south from Eastern Kansas around the northeast periphery
of the ridge. With the increase in cloud cover from the showers and
thunderstorms, temperatures should cool by a few degrees next week,
possibly keeping heat index values below advisory criteria. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions to prevail through the 18Z TAF pd. Isold
shwrs/tstms cannot be ruled out through sunset today, mainly at
KTXK/KSHV/KGGG. Otherwise, Some patchy BR may be possible at KLFK
around sunrise, but this should be brief. Winds will remain light
through the overnight hours, picking up out of the s to sw after
sunrise Saturday at 10 kts or less. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  10
MLU  72  97  75  96 /   0  10   0  10
DEQ  72  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  72  94  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  96  74  95 /   0  10   0   0
TYR  76  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  75  96  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  96  75  96 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/20