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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241952
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
252 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Another hot day across the region today with temperatures running
in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Lower dewpoints have been able to
mix down from aloft, especially across portions of East Texas.
The drier air has resulted in heat index values struggling to
reach advisory criteria, but there is still plenty of peak heating
time available. Thus, I expect heat indices to get to at least
105 degrees F in most locations. Saturday will be quite similar.
Once again, there may be a pocket of dry air over our western
zones. However, daytime temperatures should be another degree or
two warmer than today. The warmer temeratures should overcome the
decrease in dewpoints, keeping peak heat indices above 105 degrees
F. Therefore, another Heat Advisory will be in effect for the
entire area for Saturday.

Scattered convection has also begun to develop across Northeast
and North Central Louisiana, moving westward very slowly. Similar
to the last couple of days, additional development is likely
before diminishing during the early evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Some of these storms could produce some gusty
winds as they collapse, but severe weather is not expected. A
repeat performance of more diurnally-driven convection is likely
Saturday afternoon.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Sunday appears to be the last, really oppressive day heat wise
across our region as a cold front will be moving into our far
northern regions late in the day Sunday, making southward progress
towards the I-20 Corridor Sunday Night and through the remainder of
our region Monday into Monday Night. This cold front will provide
the necessary low level forcing, with the aid of instability and
moisture present to produce scattered late afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across our far northern and northeastern zones late
Sunday, and hopefully, areawide Sunday Night. The GFS has picked up
on this today and the latest run of the NAM has also jumped on
board with this possible outcome, as the NAM has been relatively dry
with previous runs. For now, we will just advertise low end chance
pops with the frontal passage but these chances could rise if we
continue to see model trends pointing that way as Sunday and Sunday
Night get closer.

Kept low end chance pops going for Monday as well mainly near and
south of the I-20 Corridor but the big change should be felt in the
temperature department with highs on Monday only reaching the middle
80s north to the lower 90s south. Comfortable temperatures the first
couple nights next week with lows falling into the middle 60s both
Monday Night and Tuesday Night across our northern third but
temperatures begin to rebound once again by mid to late week with at
least middle 90s beginning to rear their ugly head as early as early
as Wed across some locations and more areawide by Thu into Fri.

There are some discrepancies on the redevelopment of the ridge axis
across the Southern Plains by the end of the upcoming work week so
stayed close to NBM as far as pops are concerned, weighted a little
heavier across our southeast half where moisture should be a little
more prevalent for diurnally driven late day and evening convection.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

VFR flight conditions should continue at all terminals for the
duration of this TAF cycle. Isolated to widely scattered
convection should develop across much of the area beginning around
24/18z. Convective coverage is too spotty to mention anything more
than VCTS at this time. The showers and thunderstorms should
diminish around 25/00z. If thunderstorms affect any TAF sites,
some brief, lowered visibilities and gusty winds are possible.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 102  77 102 /  20  20  10  20
MLU  76 100  76 100 /  10  20  10  30
DEQ  75  99  73  96 /  20  10   0  40
TXK  77 101  77  99 /  20  20   0  30
ELD  74  99  74  99 /  10  10  10  30
TYR  76 102  76 102 /  20  20   0  10
GGG  75 102  76 102 /  20  20   0  20
LFK  74 102  74 102 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09