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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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308 FXUS64 KSHV 270316 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1016 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Scattered convection will remain possible through this evening and overnight as deep SW flow just above the sfc is maintained. Expect an increase in coverage during the day on Saturday with the influence of added heating through the afternoon. The current forecast reflects this thinking so no changes are needed at this time as the previous Flood Watch for some of our SW zones having expired earlier this evening. /19/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Upper-level trough that has brought copious amounts of rainfall to the region over the past several days will retrograde northwest tonight. This jog to the northwest will bring little improvement to the pattern with another surge of moisture possibly streaming northeast across the region again late tonight into Saturday. Based on the latest hires guidance, most of the heavier precipitation that would warrant a Flood Watch will remain closer to the coast. Therefore, there is no plan to expand the ongoing Flood Watch at this time. However, with ongoing flood warnings still in place across portions of Deep East Texas and adjacent parishes in north Louisiana for the next couple of hours, will hold off on ending the watch early. High temperatures on Saturday will remain seasonably cool in the lower to middle 80s due to increased rainfall and cloud-cover. A chaotic atmosphere to persist into Saturday night with lingering convection slowly waning and multi-level cloud decks persisting areawide. Overnight lows forecast to average in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Upper-level trough to eject northeast at the start of the long- term period allowing for an upper-ridge to build east across the region. The upper-ridge will remain in place through the end of next week allowing for drier conditions areawide. Subsidence associated with the ridge will drive afternoon high temperatures into the mid 90s by Thursday. Accordingly, with increased low- level moisture in place, afternoon heat index values could reach advisory criteria across parts of the region as early as Monday. Rain chances will become limited and confined to mainly the hottest part of the day in the afternoon. Otherwise, overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected each night. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, little change over the next day as the pattern continues with the shear axis overhead. VFR/MVFr now will see the IFR setting back in later this evening and early morning. Another surge of moisture will bring showers and isold TS with daybreak. Models showing things start to loosen up earlier tmrw with VFR cigs during the aftn as the rain areas push out of the region. Coverage will further diminish for Sunday with one last push perhaps before the hot&dry conditions resume next week. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 85 74 88 / 50 60 40 60 MLU 71 86 73 87 / 50 60 40 60 DEQ 69 84 69 88 / 30 50 20 30 TXK 72 86 72 90 / 30 50 30 50 ELD 69 83 70 87 / 50 60 30 50 TYR 72 85 73 89 / 30 50 20 40 GGG 71 84 72 88 / 40 50 30 50 LFK 71 82 72 86 / 50 70 30 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...24