Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260549

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1149 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020


VFR ceilings will begin to drop to MVFR into the pre-dawn hours as
a mid-level disturbance and surface low push showers across the
terminals. Showers will continue overnight and ceilings will
lower to IFR near dawn and through much of the day on Sunday. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but confidence is too
low to mention in any of the TAFs. TEMPO groups are in the
forecast for lowered ceilings and visibilities with showers into
the early morning hours across the terminals.

The surface low will pass south of the area and showers will
begin to move east of the terminals by Sunday afternoon. This will
allow ceilings to begin to lift late in the day. Winds will be
mostly southerly at 5-10 kts through the TAF period. Restrictions
will likely drop again Sunday night with fog developing across the
terminals. /04-Woodrum/


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 749 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/


The latest mid-level analysis indicates that southeastern
Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, east Texas, and northwestern
Louisiana are in a westerly mid-level flow just ahead of a weak
short wave trough. The trough is moving from the Texas Panhandle
eastward along the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. A time
height cross section indicates moisture in the 850-700mb layer
with a south-southwesterly flow in the 1000-850mb layer. At the
surface, a 1011mb low is centered TX/OK border near Frederick,
Oklahoma. A frontal boundary extends southwest of the low and is
most indicative by a southerly to northwesterly wind shift in west
Texas. There is little thermal advection along the boundary
itself with cold air advection trailing further upstream in New
Mexico. Well ahead of this feature winds are light southerly
across the local area.

Tonight, the mid-level short wave will cross the ArkLaTex while
the surface low and its frontal boundary pushes southeastward
from the Texas panhandle into southeast Texas. The 1000-700mb
layer across much of the area will become saturated after midnight
and wave energy along with some lift from the low and its
associated frontal boundary extending east of the low will aid in
the development of showers overnight. A few light showers have
already begun to develop across southwestern Arkansas and Deep
East Texas. HRRR/NAM 3km solutions indicate scattered showers
will further develop by midnight in East Texas and shift eastward
to the ArkLaMiss by dawn. Shower coverage and intensity is
expected to increase overnight as the low nears the area and with
some weak elevated instability in warm air advection there is a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Overall rainfall amounts are
anticipated to be light will less than a half of an inch of
rainfall expected across the area.

Temperatures will be slow to fall overnight as cloud coverage and
an increasingly moist southerly low-level flow limit cooling
overnight. The forecast is closest to a LAMP/NBM blend with lows
ranging from the lower to mid 40s in McCurtain County, Oklahoma
across southwestern Arkansas to the ArkLaMiss and in the upper
40s to lower 50s elsewhere. /04-Woodrum/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Sunday night/

Our next cold front will be along late tomorrow afternoon, so
look for rain areas to move out from West to East during late
Sunday morning in OK/TX and perhaps much of the afternoon for
AR/LA. A range of 40s is expected for lows tonight and some low to
mid 60s in deep East TX possibly tomorrow afternoon, but much of
the region will keep to mid to upper 50s with clouds and rain
areas slow to clear in the East. Then with high pressure and
Northwest winds, expect more 30s North and low to mid 40s South
expected Sunday night. /24/

LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday Night/

Progressive upper flow pattern looks to continue through much of the
upcoming work week. Shortwave ridging Monday will quickly push ewd
as a compact cut-off low moves into N TX Tuesday. This will bring a
round of widespread shwrs and isold tstms through Tuesday night,
with a very weak sfc ridge to build in its wake. Dry and seasonable
temps will hold for the most part Wednesday and Thursday before an
upper trof axis with an embedded srn stream cut-off low moves into W
TX late Thursday into Friday. Although model solutions diverge a bit
with the timing and evolution of this storm system, it does appear
that we can expect another round of convection Friday into Friday
night. /12/


SHV  48  60  43  64 /  60  50  10   0
MLU  46  57  45  61 /  50  70  20   0
DEQ  42  57  37  62 /  70  40  10   0
TXK  45  56  40  61 /  70  40  10   0
ELD  43  56  39  61 /  60  60  10   0
TYR  50  62  43  65 /  50  20   0   0
GGG  48  61  42  65 /  60  40  10   0
LFK  51  66  46  68 /  70  50  10   0




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