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000
FXUS64 KSHV 202037
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
337 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/

A warm front has moved completely north of the forecast area today
resulting in warm and humid conditions areawide. A weak midlevel
shortwave in Southeast Texas has aided in the development of a
band of showers and isolated thunderstorms from south of Galveston
northward to Deep East Texas. Some of this activity may briefly
affect the Sam Rayburn and Lower Toledo Bend areas of East Texas
early this evening before dissipating with the loss of diurnal
heating. The NAM has picked up on this convection quite well. PoPs
were not mentioned for this evening as coverage is expected to be
very isolated and very short-lived.

Abundant low-level moisture will likely result in another round of
widespread low clouds and fog overnight and into Wednesday
morning. Model guidance did not appear quite as supportive of
dense fog compared to last night. However, if dense fog develops,
the most likely areas will once again be along and south of
Interstate 20 in Texas and Louisiana where moisture levels are
highest.

No rain is expected on Wednesday, and any fog should lift by late
morning with partly cloudy skies expected by early afternoon.
Temperatures will rapidly warm to unseasonable levels as most
locations climb well into the 80s. More low clouds and fog are
possible Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

CN

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/

By Thursday, the flow aloft will transition to southwesterly in
response to a broad upper trough diffing across the
Northern/Central Rockies. At the surface, southerly flow will
increase due to strengthening lee trough. A cold front will also
sharpen and dive southeastward across the Plains towards the
ArkLaTex.

Well above normal temperatures will continue Thursday and Friday
ahead of the front. Scattered convection will finally during the
day Friday across Southeast Oklahoma and gradually spreading
southward as the front approaches. Model guidance is in good
agreement that the majority of the precip will actually be well
behind the surface front and focused along the front at 850 hPa.
Unfortunately, the timing of all over the synoptic features does
not seem to be on our side as a weak shortwave trough will pass
over the region while the 850 hPa front is still well to the
northwest, which will keep most of the rain in Oklahoma. By the
time the elevated front arrives, the shortwave will be east of the
region and dry air will be advecting into the forecast area.
Overall, rain chances with this system will be quite limited, but
will be highest in Southeast Oklahoma Friday morning and should
end for most of the area overnight Friday/early Saturday.

The cold air will be lagging behind the surface front resulting
in quite a temperature gradient during the day Saturday. High
temperatures in Southeast Oklahoma will struggle into the low 60s
but should warm to near 80 degrees in our southernmost counties
and parishes. A quick rebound is expected on Sunday as southerly
flow returns ahead of the next front due to arrive next Monday,
likely bringing more chances for rain and quite possibly the
coldest temperatures so far this season.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020/

AVIATION...
For the 20/18z TAFs, VFR conditions prevail in most places, but
some thicker low clouds between 2-3 kft still persist in Southeast
Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas and Northeast
Texas, and also farther south in the Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn
Reservoir areas of Texas and Louisiana. These clouds should
eventually scatter by sunset. Another round of low clouds and
patchy fog will result in MVFR/IFR flight conditions after 21/06z
with very slow improvements back into the VFR range by 21/16z.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  62  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  84  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  63  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  85  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  85  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  86  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  66  87  66  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09