Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 132149
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
349 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/

The axis of a broad upper trough is moving across the Mississippi
River Valley. Another shortwave trough currently over Western Nebraska
will dive southeast into Arkansas after midnight tonight. A weak
surface trough will also move across the area this evening. These
features will bring another round of low stratus and patchy fog to
much of the area tonight/Saturday morning. I can`t rule out the
possibility of some dense fog, but westerly winds are usually not
favorable for dense fog. However, wind speeds will be so light
that dry air advection may not be much of a factor. The increased
cloud cover should keep temperatures above freezing areawide
tonight. While the low clouds will gradually lift and scatter
during the day Saturday, high level cirrus clouds will increase
across the region ahead of the next large upper trough moving onto
the West Coast. Overall, conditions should remain relatively
benign through the end of the short-term period. No precipitation
is anticipated.

CN


.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/

Clouds to increase areawide on Sunday as upper-flow become southwest
ahead of a broad upper-trough. Showers and isolated thunderstorms to
increase in coverage from the west overnight as upper-trough and a
cold front translate east across the region.

A few strong thunderstorms possible by daybreak Monday morning
mainly across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest
Arkansas. Storm intensity remains uncertain due to a number of
factors including limited moisture recovery as well as lack of
daytime heating. However, despite these limitations, a few
supercells producing marginal hail, strong wind gusts, and an
isolated tornado may be possible early Monday morning.

Marginal risk of severe weather across the I-30 corridor on Sunday
night  will shift south and east on Monday with the cold front.
Convection is forecast to exit the region on Monday afternoon with
surface and upper-ridge building in its wake.

Dry conditions to prevail through the remainder of the long term
forecast period. Temperatures ahead of the front early in the work
week to range from highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s to lows in the
50s. Behind the front, temperatures to fall into the 50s for highs
with near freezing lows. /05/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1216 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019/

AVIATION...
For the 13/18z TAFs, low stratus and patchy fog persist across
North Central Louisiana, including MVFR and IFR ceilings. The
clouds should gradually lift and scattered through the remainder
of the daytime hours with all terminals returning to the VFR
range. However, more low clouds will likely develop after 14/09z
leading to more MVFR/IFR flight conditions at most sites, with the
possible exception of KTYR, KGGG, and KLFK. A slow improvement is
expected late in the period after sunrise. Otherwise, southerly
winds are expected initially before becoming northwesterly after
14/00z.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  63  45  73 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  43  62  43  71 /  10   0   0  20
DEQ  38  57  39  62 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  41  57  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  40  59  42  67 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  41  63  46  74 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  41  64  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  43  65  47  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/05


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