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000
FXUS64 KSHV 312355
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
655 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex terminals, expecting VFR as low clouds fade to
SKC with sunset. Calm winds overnight with a small window for a
touch of daybreak BR possible yet brief. Otherwise, our SFC winds
will resume 13-15Z from SE 5-10KT. Expect less low clouds for
Wednesday and more high clouds streaming our way with the next
weak fropa bringing more showers late week and then improving some
for the wknd, but the wet pattern persist for early next week./24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tomorrow Night/

Unlike short-term discussions of yesteryear, there really isn`t a
whole lot to discuss weatherwise over the next 36 hours. The
cold-front has finally pushed out of the area, allowing for dry
air to filter in from the north. Dry air and clear skies can be
expected to remain over the course of this short-term period.
Temperatures tonight may be a little chilly to some, as temps will
run in the mid 40s, with a slight rebound tomorrow night into the
low 50s. Patchy fog may also be possible in some areas as the
winds decouple. However, look for abundant sunshine and
temperatures into the mid 70s area-wide tomorrow. /44/

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/

Upper level ridging in place across the region Thursday will begin
to shift E across the MS Valley by Thursday evening, with low level
moisture advection expected to increase across E TX by afternoon.
However, the short term progs have backed off on the SHRA
development across this area by several hours, and thus have lowered
pops to slight chance across SE OK/E TX before pops increase to
chance Thursday evening as slightly better mid level forcing beneath
the upper trough ejecting NE through the Cntrl/Nrn Plains, enters
the area under increased moisture advection.

The progs continue to suggest a weak cold front beginning to shift
SE across Ern OK into N TX Friday afternoon, with the ECMWF
consistent with earlier runs in slowing the front in the higher
terrain over Wrn AR Friday night, before sfc ridging over the Plains
is able to reinforce this bndry SE through the region Saturday. This
seems more plausible than the much faster GFS given the lack of any
reinforcing flow aloft, although there is some agreement here that
the better frontal convergence will exist across portions of E and
S/SE TX, where perturbations in the flow aloft will help enhance
forcing aloft by mid/late afternoon through the evening when
instability is maximized. Although the progs suggest the more
organized convection will remain WSW of the region late Friday
afternoon, still can`t rule out at least an isolated severe threat
over portions of E TX in the late afternoon/evening where better
frontal convergence will exist, before the threat diminishes late
with waning instability. Did continue the trend with ramping up pops
to likely from W to E across the region Friday night, with the
general consensus in the convection diminishing during the day
Saturday. Temps look to cool to more seasonal levels Saturday in
wake of this weak cool frontal passage, with weak sfc ridging
building S into the area in its wake. Did tone down pops to slight
chance Saturday night/Sunday morning to reflect the dry signal that
the ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are advertising, which is more in line with
the more consistent ECMWF that was depicted Monday.

Upper level ridging is expected to build back N across the region
into the MS Valley Sunday, thus promoting a warming trend for the
latter half of the weekend into early next week, with the feature
shifting E of the region by Sunday night resulting in return SW flow
aloft. This will result in additional perturbations in the flow to
eject ENE across the Srn Plains and enhance convection development
late Sunday through Monday across the region. Although these
perturbations may initially flatten the ridge, the ridge itself
looks to amplify back N across the region/MS Valley and Gulf Coast
states by Tuesday before shifting farther E just beyond the extended
period, which may result in another period of active weather for mid
and possibly late week. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  47  75  53  75 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  46  75  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  74  50  73 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  46  73  53  74 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  45  75  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  47  71  54  74 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  47  74  53  74 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  48  75  54  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/44/15