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220
FXUS64 KSHV 171140
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
640 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.AVIATION...

Patchy low stratus has developed across parts of Deep E TX this
morning, and this will likely hold on through mid morning before
lifting. VFR conditions to prevail thereafter through the end of
the pd. Isold to sct tstms will be possible mainly during the
aftn and mainly across E TX, and reduced categories may be
possible in vc of any convection. Otherwise, expect sely winds
5-10 kts today to become light and vrbl after sunset. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday Night/

Upper ridge remains centered over AR this morning, squeezed
between the upper trof axis over the wrn CONUS and a departing
trof over the NE. The main story this pd has been rather quickly
developing over the last few model runs, and involves the tropical
low pressure system just off of the SE TX Coast. Models have
trended upward with QPF over the last several runs, as this low is
fcst to slowly drift nwd through the short term and beyond. There
is much uncertainty, however, with respect to QPF amounts and
location with this system, with models painting some hefty totals
just to the sw of our region. Nevertheless, the potential for
heavier totals across our area remains relegated to the long-term
portion of the fcst.

PoPs look to remain confined to the srn and ern portions of the
region and primarily during the peak heating hours of today and
Wednesday. Model precip run accums show anywhere from a half inch
to about two inches across Deep E TX, amounts that our dry soils
and vegetation could easily take. Daytime maximum temperatures
should see some relief, at least for areas aside from srn AR/N
Central LA, as clouds and convection increase in coverage. /12/

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/

An upper level low, with some tropical characteristics, will
continue its inland movement northward through East Texas during the
remainder of the work week.  If the current forecast track holds up,
the best chance for rain will be across the western half of the CWA.
Convection with this system will be more widespread across the
entire region during peak heating hours, and more confined to the
center of circulation during the evening and overnight hours. The
biggest question with this event revolves around the rainfall
totals. The ECMWF has been very bullish with this system depicting
rainfall totals up to 12 inches across portions East Texas through
Saturday morning, where the GFS and Canadian are closer to 3 to 5
inches. As on now, going to lean more towards the GFS and Canadian
solutions, which also aligns with WPC QPF totals. This will need to
be carefully watched over the next several days.

Over the weekend through the early portions of next week, the upper
low will continue to move north out of the region and a longwave
trough and weak cold front will try to move into the region.
However, an upper ridge will build back into the SE Conus keeping
the boundary to the northwest.

High temperatures through the weekend will fall below normal with
rain and cloud cover over the region. In areas across the western
half of the region, highs will struggle to reach the mid to upper
80s. But afternoon temperatures will rebound back into the lower 90s
as the ridge expands into the area. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  73  94  74 /  20   0  30  20
MLU  98  73  98  74 /  10   0  20  10
DEQ  96  71  95  71 /  10   0  20  10
TXK  95  72  94  73 /  10   0  20  10
ELD  98  71  97  72 /  10   0  20  10
TYR  94  72  90  73 /  30  10  50  50
GGG  95  72  92  72 /  30   0  40  30
LFK  91  73  87  73 /  50  20  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/20