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000
FXUS64 KSHV 062004
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
304 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/

A weak frontal boundary will proceed across the Ark-La-Tex tonight
as the short-term forecast period begins. This boundary will
reinforce dry conditions and temperatures near or just below normal
for the next 36 hours, starting with areawide low temperatures in the
50s. By Friday morning, winds will quickly shift from northeasterly
to easterly as the surface high introduced behind the frontal
boundary quickly shifts to our southeast.

As winds continue to shift to southeasterly, advection of warm
air and Gulf moisture will have an effect on afternoon high
temperatures, especially in our southwestern zones where mid-80s
are possible. Elsewhere, a range from the upper 70s to the low 80s
are likely. Gulf moisture will continue to return after sunset as
dew points in the mid-50s are advected further eastward with a
warm front. The moist air will creep into most of East Texas
overnight, keeping all low temperatures in the upper-50s
approaching the 60 degree mark. /16/


.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/

NW flow aloft will transition to zonal across the Srn Plains and MS
Valley Saturday, with the departure of the longwave trough into the
Mid-Atlantic states. A SSW LLJ will become established over the Srn
Plains Saturday, ahead of deepening sfc cyclogenesis that will take
place in lee of the Rockies as it drifts into SW KS/OK and TX
Panhandles during the afternoon. Some of the stronger winds will mix
down to the sfc especially over E TX Saturday, with a rapid increase
in low level moisture especially over E TX/SE OK. However, dry
conditions will hold on for the first half of the weekend, although
a return to above normal temps and gradual increase in dewpoints are
expected. The muggier air will be felt by late Saturday night
though, with min temps hard pressed to fall much below 70 (if at
all) given the Srly winds/increasing low stratus over the Wrn half
of the region.

The sfc low will begin to eject NE into the Cntrl Plains Saturday
night, along a cold front that will begin to advance SE into Cntrl
OK and NW TX, driven by weak shortwave troughing ejecting E into the
Plains. A more unsettled period is expected by Sunday as the front
begins to enter the NW sections of the region by late afternoon,
with weak perturbations in the seemingly dirty flow helping to
ignite an increase in convection over much of the area. Given the
potential for increasing shear and moderate instability developing
during the afternoon, can`t rule out isolated strong to svr
convection developing over the region through the evening, although
this threat should wane late with increasing stability as the front
seeps S into E TX/N LA. There still remains some timing
uncertainties in regards with the fropa, with the GFS slowest in not
getting the front through all the region until Wednesday morning.
Prefer the slightly faster solutions with the fropa, as the
convection near the front may help to convectively reinforce the
bndry S. Have maintained likely pops over a large part of the area
Sunday afternoon/night, with a temporary reduction in convection
expected Monday, before overrunning increases Monday night atop/N of
the front as additional perturbations in the flow traverse the
region. Thus, pops increase back to likely from W to E Monday night,
continuing through Tuesday as additional large scale forcing
increases ahead of the Great Basin/Rockies upper trough that will
enter the Srn Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. The progs are in
general agreement though with periods of heavy rainfall, although
exact timing and location remains uncertain attm. However, it is not
out of the realm of possibility of QPF`s of 2-4 inches from Sunday
through midweek, with this long duration of convection likely
keeping any flooding minor even with the wet grounds in place, which
will slowly dry through the weekend. Given the uncertain timing of
the fropa, did maintain NBM temps although adjustments will likely
be needed given the frontal position and timing of convection.

15


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1223 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/

AVIATION...

For the 06/18Z TAF update, light winds will briefly pick up for
this afternoon before slackening once again by 07/01Z. Ideal VFR
cigs/vis should prevail through the entire period as a weak
frontal boundary, arriving across our airspace by 07/06Z,
reinforces fair and seasonal weather conditions. Surface high
pressure will quickly shift to our southeast by the end of the
period, allowing winds to shift from northeasterly to east-
southeasterly by the end of the period at 5 to 10 kts. /16/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  81  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  54  77  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  77  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  79  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  78  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  82  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  81  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  58  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

16/15/16