


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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868 FXUS64 KSHV 130919 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 419 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 419 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 The early morning satellite imagery indicates that our pesky upper low has finally drifted E into Middle TN, with a deeper wedge of drier air on the subsident side of the low having finally entrained E into SW AR/much of N LA. In fact, the last of the isolated -SHRA has shifted to near the MS River across NE LA/Wrn MS, with the back edge of the wrap-around cigs about to clear MLU here shortly. In wake of the low, areas of FG has developed over much of Nrn and Cntrl AR, with satellite imagery (confirmed with ARDOT traffic cams) indicating the FG straddling the CWA border with WFO LZK. Not expecting the FG to backbuild too much farther WSW into our SW AR counties this morning, but did insert patchy FG mention for this area through mid-morning to accommodate the potential before the FG lifts after daybreak. Otherwise, a Srly low level flow will resume today in wake of the low, with strong insolation yielding a return to hot/above normal conditions to the region. In fact, this will begin a prolonged period of hot/humid and in some cases, near record heat especially as flat ridging aloft begins to build/expand N from the Srn Plains across the region into the Lower MS Valley Wednesday. While max temps today with remain below record territory, Wednesday will be an exception as sfc ridging over Ern CO begins to drift ESE into Wrn KS, with its attendant sfc trough lifting NE from NE TX/SE OK into NE OK/Cntrl and Nrn AR through the afternoon. This will allow for the W TX dryline to mix E into Cntrl OK/TX, with a more SW component to the wind enhancing the warmup in the bndry lyr. Still think the NBM is a little too bullish with max temps in the mid/upper 90s across E TX/Wrn LA, and thus have backed off a degree or so especially given the wet grounds that persist in wake of the ample rainfall that has fallen as of late. Daily max temps records will be challenged across E TX Wednesday, with any triple digit heat expected to remain well W of the area over Cntrl/SW TX, especially where stronger drought/moisture deficits exist. Fortunately, heat indices should only top out near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon, and thus, no heat headlines will be needed attm. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 419 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 The period of above normal temps will continue through the long term period, even as the upper ridge begins to shift NE from the Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Gulf Coast States Thursday, ahead of upper troughing that will eject NE from the Cntrl Rockies into the Midwest. The resultant SW flow aloft will yield an increase in elevated cigs as early as Wednesday night, which will persist through at least Friday, thus tapering back max temps slightly across the region. However, the persistent Srly low level flow will maintain muggy conditions through the period, characteristic of morning low clouds that will lift into a scattered cu field by midday. The NE ejection of the Wrn KS sfc low Thursday into the Midwest will allow for a weak cold front to shift E into NCntrl TX/Ern OK by afternoon, before becoming stationary just NW of the region. The lack of appreciable deep lyr moisture and potential for capping should negate convection development along this front Thursday afternoon even as weak perturbations in the SW flow traverse NE. The various medium range progs suggest that this bndry may lift back N Friday morning and wash out, before being replaced by a weak second front that will eventually become stationary from Ern OK into Cntrl AR. Low level moisture may deepen sufficiently enough Friday afternoon for the potential for isolated convection mainly over Wrn and Cntrl AR (N of our region), although this convection may help reinforce the bndry farther S into SE OK/SW AR Friday night. Thus, the introduction of pops back into the forecast was delayed until this time, which could be reinvigorated with daytime heating Saturday generally along/N of the I-20 corridor. Timing and extent of convection will likely change over the coming days pending the placement of any mesoscale bndrys and perturbations embedded in the WSW flow aloft, but the period of well above normal temps will continue with max temps in the lower/mid 90s each day. A deepening upper level trough over the Desert SW early next week should result in amplification of the ridging aloft over our region into the MS Valley, thus deflecting the storm track farther W and N of the area, while also dialing up an increase in the heat. 15 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR for most, but some IFR at KMLU is the worst from here. 3-5sm BR in a spot or two around daybreak as well with light and variable wind until mid morning. Then S/SW 10-20KT backs to S/SE for the evening as a quiet pattern sets in with our next outlook for convection this weekend. /24/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 419 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 91 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 88 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 87 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 89 69 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 87 66 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 90 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 90 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 92 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...24