


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
671 FXUS65 KTFX 130506 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1106 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with temperatures above normal through Monday. - A low chance for thunderstorms along the Hi Line and Southwest Montana Sunday evening. - A cold front Monday will bring precipitation and cooler weather through Wednesday. && .UPDATE... /Issued 824 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ Satellite imagery this evening shows the few areas of afternoon cumulus from earlier today dissipating, leaving mainly clear skies for the region through the rest of tonight as broad upper level ridging maintains a dry west-northwest flow aloft across the Northern Rockies and MT. Somewhat breezy northwest surface winds have also decreased with overall dry and mild conditions tonight leading into a very warm day tomorrow. Hoenisch && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 824 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: High pressure in place today will keep the area dry and warmer again. Heading into Sunday, most of the region will still remain dry, with a weak disturbance in southern Canada and ID will try to clip a few showers and thunderstorms into the region along the ID and Canadian border. Storms that move south out of the Canadian border will have the potential to become strong, producing strong wind gusts and smaller hail. The main system holds off until Monday. Looks like the current cold front will bring down the main wave of precipitation Monday, with the timings a little uncertain still. A little bit of precipitation will develop Monday afternoon/evening ahead of the main wave, but widespread looks to arrive later in the evening/overnight. Models hint at a weak disturbance along the ID/MT border and tries to initiate a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening. Low CAPE in North-Central MT should keep convection weaker. Down in Southwest MT, sounding profiles have more drier air and CAPE, which will bring a concern for a few stronger storms. The same case is for Tuesday, where a wave from ID move through Southwest MT can bring a few more stronger storms to the region, where drier air in place will help keep storms from being `water-logged` as opposed to North-Central MT. The 500mb trough closes off Tuesday, which will help precipitation linger through the evening and overnight hours. There remains inconsistencies with end timing, with some modeling having precipitation lingering through the morning hours Wednesday. This system will also bring in cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday, where some locations can experience a 15-20 degree drop in the high temperatures from Monday to Tuesday. After this system exists, we will transition to a weak northwest/ zonal flow aloft pattern through next weekend. Although the forecast looks to be drier through next weekend, a few weak disturbances will keep low end chances for precipitation in the forecast in the meantime for the second half of next week. Most of what happens later in the week will be dependent on how this system plays out at the beginning of the week. A gradual warm up to near to slightly above normal also looks to trend through next weekend. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Sunday looks to be a `hit or miss` kind of day with precipitation near the border of Canada and ID (meaning, there is a low end chance for a few shower and thunderstorms to clip the region from ID and Canada). Deep inverted V`s and decent lapse rates also indicate the potential for a few stronger storms towards the Canadian border. There remains some inconsistencies in model guidance for timing and how much precipitation falls during this time period (though the agreement in the 12z runs did agree better than yesterday). The NAM is the more progressive solution in the cold front passage earlier in the day Monday. It look likes the recent runs do agree to close off that upperr-level wave Tuesday, which will help keep precipitation around later (with the GFS keeping rain all the way through the morning Wednesday). However, I would like to see more run to run consistency before hopping on any train. Current rain amounts still remain uncertain. The current NBM gives a 40-70% chance of 0.5" inches of rain, the GFS still is a high end solution (likely due to the later end timing in precipitation), giving close to or just above 1" of rain in North- Central MT. The 25th percentile for lower end amounts give 0.15-0.3" and the 75th percentile for higher amounts give 0.8-1.25" in Central MT. The middle of road solution give 0.4-0.6". A later arrival and weaker time of precipitation in the evening Monday will keep thunderstorms weak in Central MT. Though, any faster progression of the front will increase thunderstorm chances. Tuesday will have embedded thunderstorms with widespread precipitation, but saturated low to mid levels of the atmosphere will keep thunderstorms weak overall. Across Southwest MT, there is drier air. This will help bring the potential for a few stronger wind gusts Monday with deep inverted V soundings. Tuesday has a slight increase in elevated CAPE towards the Continental Divide, where it can bring a low end potential for hail if this keeps trending. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 13/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through the period. Light and variable winds will continue through the overnight before pickup up to around 10kts in the afternoon. Mid-level clouds will filter into the Hi-Line by the afternoon ahead of a cold front with around a 15-20% chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly for KHVR. -thor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 94 58 89 / 0 0 10 20 CTB 57 87 55 72 / 0 10 20 40 HLN 59 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 53 92 56 94 / 0 0 10 10 WYS 41 84 45 83 / 0 0 10 20 DLN 50 90 53 90 / 0 0 10 10 HVR 58 93 58 83 / 0 0 20 30 LWT 55 88 56 86 / 0 0 10 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls