203
FXUS65 KTFX 270247
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
847 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be around across Southwest
Montana each afternoon and early evening through Sunday.
Temperatures remain near average through early next week, but look
to trend warmer toward late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

The Red Flag Warning for Fire Weather Zones 112 and 113 will be
allowed to expire at 9 pm since humidity is increasing and winds
are decreasing. Pops across Southwestern Montana were increased
for a couple of hours to match current radar trends. Minor
changes were made to RH, Dewpoint, Temperature, Wind, and Sky
grids. The rest of the forecast is on track. Tonight the showers
and thunderstorms across Eastern Beaverhead and Gallatin Counties
will end within the next 2 hours or so. Tomorrow temperatures
will be about the same as today with smoke and haze returning to
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana with
afternoon/evening thunderstorms in Southwestern Montana. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
27/00Z TAF Period

Main concern this evening is thunderstorms, mainly south of a line
from Dillon to Bozeman. The storms will continue to slowly slide
southeastward through the evening hours. Expect some dense smoke to
move into Southwest MT after 3z. Visibility could fall below 3SM at
times in some areas. Mountains/passes will be obscured. On Saturday,
smoke in the morning, then another chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly south and east of a line from Helena, to Great
Falls to Lewistown. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy/dry conditions will continue over the northern half of the
districts into early this evening. There is a small chance for
storms Sat south of a Great Falls to Lewistown line. On Sunday, the
storms shift to areas mainly east of a line from Havre to Helena.
Windy conditions expected on Monday, with another chance for more
widespread thunderstorm activity on Tuesday. Temperatures look to
trend back above average late week. Brusda/AM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 545 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024/
Through Sunday... Broad troughing across the region will result in a
southwesterly flow aloft through the weekend. This will result in
temperatures remaining near average, with opportunities for showers
and thunderstorms across Southwest Montana each of the next few
afternoons and early evenings. A wave progressing through this
southwesterly flow aloft may result in a few showers lingering into
the overnight Saturday night, though confidence in this is low at
this time.

Monday and Tuesday... Flow aloft turns briefly zonal Monday
afternoon, which will result in a day of breezy westerly winds
across the plains. Overall Monday is looking dry, with temperatures
continuing to remain near average.

An upper level disturbance then approaches the region from the
Pacific Northwest Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms look to overspread the region as a result on Tuesday,
though confidence on timing is low at this time.

Wednesday into late next week... Upper level ridging looks to build
back in Wednesday into late week. This will result in a dry period,
with temperatures trending back above average. Uncertainty remains
with respect to exactly how hot it will get, but confidence is high
that we will trend warmer. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  86  53  87 /   0   0  10  10
CTB  46  83  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  53  90  57  89 /   0  10  20  10
BZN  49  88  51  87 /  10  20  40  20
WYS  40  77  41  74 /  20  20  50  50
DLN  47  83  47  82 /   0  20  30  20
HVR  51  86  54  90 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  49  83  54  82 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls