Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 022142
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
242 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue to push through the
area this afternoon and evening as an upper level trough pushes
into the area. Cool and unsettled weather will continue into the
first half of the week, before warmer and drier weather moves in
for the latter half.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key points:

-Periods of heavy snow expected today

-Cool and unsettled to start the work week, with warmer and more
tranquil weather for the second half of the week

Short Term (through Monday)... An upper level trough will
continue to push its way into the area through the day today. As
it does so, bands of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to
push their way through North Central and Southwestern Montana
today. As these bands push eastward, expect periods of poor
visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation with rates up to 1 to 2
inches per hour. Expect at least another intense band or two to
push through the area overnight tonight, though the next bands
look a bit disorganized at the moment.

As we head into the day on Sunday, expect snow to gradually come
to an end across the plains, with some leftover snow showers
hanging on across Southwestern Montana

Extended (Saturday through next Thursday)... A few more
opportunities for snow are expected this week as a broad upper
level trough hangs over the Western US and Canada. With this
trough in place, we will see a few weak disturbances move through
the area, with the main ones Monday night and during the day on
Wednesday. For the Monday system, it looks like snow should
largely be confined to the higher terrain of Western and
Southwestern Montana, with just a few light snow showers reaching
the valley floors. After a bit of a break on Tuesday, our next,
more defined, system will push through the area on Wednesday,
which will bring a more widespread but still overall light
snowfall to Southwestern and Central Montana on Wednesday.

Looking towards the second half of the week and into next
weekend, upper level ridging will look to build into the area,
which should bring us warmer and drier weather to close out the
week. Winds should generally be on the light side as we warm up,
but there could be some increasing winds over the weekend. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
1210 PM MST Sat Mar 02 2024 (02/18Z TAF Period)

Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the
following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN and KEKS

Low level moisture with breezy northerly winds behind a Canadian
cold front cause MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions at our airfields. These
conditions continue to spread southward across the region.
Additionally, a Pacific Trof spreads precipitation eastward over the
region, favoring further reduced visibility and low ceilings.
Precipitation decreases during the overnight hours; however, low
ceilings continue over the plains with persistent northerly upslope
winds.
- Fogleman

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  10  27   5  22 /  80  10  10  10
CTB   1  17  -2  15 /  40   0   0  10
HLN  15  33  12  32 /  80  10  10  20
BZN  14  31  10  31 /  80  10  10  20
WYS   5  23   2  22 /  60  30  40  70
DLN  14  28   9  29 /  50  10  10  10
HVR   6  15  -1  14 / 100  30  10  10
LWT   8  23   2  22 /  90  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM MST Sunday for Big Belt,
Bridger and Castle Mountains-East Glacier Park Region-Little
Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM MST Sunday for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Hill County-Northern Blaine County.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM MST Sunday for Gallatin and
Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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