Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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297
FXUS65 KTFX 230602
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1202 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

Strong and gusty winds that battered portions of the forecast area
during the afternoon and early evening have diminished
considerably. As such, the High Wind Warning products were allowed
to expire at 7 PM MDT, as planned. Evening update has been issued
with lower wind speeds and updated PoPs/Weather/QPF and Snow
Amounts using the most recent short term model updates. Overall
forecast remains fairly similar to the afternoon package. Areas of
rain and snow can be expected overnight and through much of the
day on Wednesday. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Little Belt
Mountains and Kings Hill Pass is in good shape and will not be
updated this evening. mpj

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions continue this afternoon, then diminish somewhat as
colder air moves into the region tonight, changing rain to snow in
many areas. After a cool day on Wednesday, expect warmer and windy
conditions to redevelop by Friday. However, it turns sharply colder
next weekend, with another round of snow for some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019 (06Z Wed Oct 23 TAF Period)

As winds diminish, scattered rain and snow showers will impact
many TAF sites tonight into Wednesday with a passage of a cold
front. These showers could bring some brief gusty winds from the
northwest along with MVFR to brief IFR conditions. Showers then
look to go on a diminishing trend Wednesday evening. Dry
conditions with some lingering MVFR ceilings are then expected
across the region for Wednesday night. Widespread mountain
obscuration will persist through the day Wednesday. Anglin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019/
Tonight through Wednesday...Gusty winds developed as expected this
afternoon as a front pushed across the CWA. The highest gust
reported so far was 81mph at Two Medicine Bridge in East Glacier,
but multiple wind gusts over warning criteria of 58mph have been
reported along and west of I-15 north of Great Falls. As the
mid/high level clouds cleared out early this afternoon, convective
showers have developed along the Hi-Line east of I-15, with some
lightning reported over parts of Hill and Blaine counties so far.
Some of these showers could bring down strong wind gusts.

Winds should drop off gradually during the evening hours, though
remain gusty overnight as strong pressure rises occur. Rain and
snow showers will continue into tomorrow morning as well owing to
N-NW`ly flow and a shortwave tracking SE across the area. The best
precipitation is likely over the central mountains, where 4 to 8
inches of snow are possible in the Little Belts and Snowys, with
little or no accumulating snow expected at lower elevations. Gusty
NW`ly winds are expected over the central and northern parts of
the CWA, but not expected to approach high wind warning criteria.
Precip and winds should both abate Wed night. -Kredensor

Thursday through Friday...Shortwave ridging will quickly build
over the region for Thursday into Friday. Thus expect much warmer
air to move into the region by Friday, thus afternoon
temperatures could be a touch higher than currently forecasted.
Expect another potential for strong winds. The strong winds on
Friday could be a bit more widespread over North Central MT, and
high wind highlights might be needed once again.

Saturday through Tuesday...The 1st of two strong cold fronts will
move southward through the region early on Saturday.
Generally expect falling temperatures over much of the region
during the day on Saturday, with accumulating snowfall likely in
the favored upslope areas of North Central MT. Overall snow
amounts look to be around 6 inches in the mountains and an inch or
two at lower elevations at this time. It remains cool on Sunday,
with the 2nd cold front moving southward through the region Sunday
night into Monday. Again, another round of light snowfall is
expected with the 2nd cold front, along with colder air moving
into the region. It is possible that temperatures on Monday could
be quite a bit colder than currently forecasted should this front
pan out. Temperatures slowly rebound on Tuesday, as drier air
moves back into the region. Brusda/PAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  34  42  26 /  20  40  40   0
CTB  57  30  42  24 /  20  30  30   0
HLN  60  33  45  24 /  20  30  40  10
BZN  60  29  44  19 /  40  40  40  10
WEY  39  21  33   6 /  70  30  20   0
DLN  55  30  42  21 /  20  10  10   0
HVR  58  32  43  24 /  40  40  20   0
LWT  57  32  37  23 /  50  60  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Wednesday Cascade...
Judith Basin...Meagher.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls



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