495
FXUS65 KTFX 071124
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
424 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - It will be windy Saturday through Sunday across North-central Montana
   with very strong winds spreading down to the I-90 Corridor on
   Sunday.

 - Saturday and Sunday there will be light mountain snow.

 - Sunday evening through Monday there will be light snow across
   North-central Montana.

 - Next week there will be several rounds of precipitation with breezy
   conditions at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1156 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

On Saturday an upper-level ridge begins to move over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday it will be dry and
warm across the lower-elevations. On Saturday there will be light
snow across the mountains of North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. Due to an increasing pressure gradient on
Saturday it will be windy across North-central Montana with the
strongest winds along the Rocky Mountain Front. On Sunday the
upper-level ridge begins to flatten out. This combined with
strong low-level and upper-level winds and a strong pressure
gradient will bring strong winds to North-central Montana down to
the I-90 corridor with the strongest winds in North-central
Montana. On Sunday there will be light snow along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Gallatin and Madison ranges. Sunday evening an
upper-level shortwave trough will move through the upper-level
flow and bring precipitation to North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. The shortwave has the potential to stop the
strong winds along the Hi-Line earlier than the rest of North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Sunday the strong
winds will lead to blowing dust at times across portions of North-
central Montana.

On Monday and Tuesday there will be upper-level zonal flow over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow
temperatures to cool off with precipitation across the area on
Monday. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge briefly builds back in
over the area. This will warm temperatures up with mostly dry
weather. Wednesday night into Thursday an upper-level shortwave will
move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This
will bring another round of precipitation to the mountains with warm
temperatures for the lower-elevations on Thursday. Wednesday night
into Thursday due to a strong surface pressure gradient and strong
low-level and mid-level winds it will be windy across North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday there will be upper-
level zonal flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This will allow temperatures to cool down with mostly dry
weather for the lower-elevations with mountain snow. -IG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Saturday there is a 60 - 80% chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or
greater along the Rocky Mountain Front. On Saturday across the rest
of North-central Montana there is a 20 - 60% chance for wind gusts
in excess of 55 mph. As a result across a High Wind Warning is in
effect for the lower-elevations of Judith Basin County from Saturday
morning through midnight Sunday. On Sunday there is a 70 - 90%
chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain
Front and plains west of I-15. As a result a High Wind Warning was
issued for the Rocky Mountain Front and plains west of I-15 from 2
AM Saturday morning through midnight Sunday. On Sunday there is 40 -
80% chance for wind gusts in excess of 90 mph along the Rocky
Mountain Front. On Sunday along the immediate eastern slopes of the
Rocky Mountain Rocky Front there is a 50% chance for wind gusts in
excess of 100 mph. On Sunday across the plains of North-central
Montana down to the I-90 corridor there is a 50 - 80% chance for
wind gusts of 55 mph or greater. As a result a High Wind Warning was
issued for North-central Montana down to Helena from early Sunday
morning to midnight Sunday. A High Wind Watch remains in effect from
Helena down to the I-90 corridor from early Sunday morning to
midnight on Sunday. See the Watches section below for details.

For snow Saturday through Sunday there is a 50 - 80% chance for 4
inches of snow or greater along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Since most of this snow will fall above pass-level no products are
needed for it. For snow Sunday night through Monday there is a 30 -
60% chance for one inch of snow or greater along the Hi-Line. Across
the mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana
there is a 30 - 60% chance for 2 inches of snow on Monday. From
Tuesday through Thursday across the mountains of North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana there is greater than a 50% chance
for 6 inches of snow or greater. -IG


&&

.AVIATION...
07/12Z TAF Period

Pacific moisture within increasing westerly flow aloft will lead
to mountain obscuration through much of the next 24 hours, with
low-VFR CIGS through 00-06z Sunday across the KEKS, KBZN, and
KHLN terminals. A stay rain and/or snow shower can`t be ruled out
along and southwest of a KHLN to KBZN line through this morning,
with precipitation being confined to the Continental Divide
thereafter. Surface winds increase further through the morning
hours, especially over the plains of Central and North Central
Montana. Instance of low level wind shear and mountain wave
turbulence will increase over this timeframe and persist through
Sunday, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. - Moldan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There will be elevated fire weather concerns for grassland areas
this weekend. Particularly for areas that received little to no
precipitation yesterday and today. Strong winds, gusting over 60
mph at times, combined with high temperatures in the upper 50s and
60s and minimum relative humidity values in the 20s and 30s may
make it difficult to contain any existing or new fire starts. The
worst conditions look to occur on Sunday when the winds will be
strongest and most widespread. - RCG/IG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  59  47  61  30 /  10  10  10  50
CTB  55  43  54  17 /  10   0  50  70
HLN  55  39  63  34 /  30  10  10  40
BZN  52  33  62  35 /  20  10   0  20
WYS  36  27  44  30 /  60  30  30  20
DLN  51  32  58  35 /  20   0   0   0
HVR  63  41  62  20 /  10  10  30  80
LWT  55  39  60  27 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Warning until midnight MST Sunday night for East
Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM Sunday to midnight MST Sunday night
for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below
5000ft-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and
Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-Helena
Valley-Hill County-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northern
Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Upper Blackfoot and
MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for Big
Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Elkhorn and
Boulder Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Meagher County Valleys-
Missouri Headwaters.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to midnight MST Sunday
night for Judith Basin County and Judith Gap.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls