Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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069
FXUS63 KTOP 140851
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
251 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Clouds continue to clear the area by early to mid morning time
frame.  Pleasant weather sets up over the area with increasing
temperatures.

Low level clouds slowly continue a general eastward progression. Do
have clouds slow to clear the area, especially over far east and
east central zones due to the meridional nature of the low pressure
system over the Arklatex region.  This storm system will continue to
go through its mature and occlusion phase.  As it lifts into the
Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, northerly winds should continue to
slowly calm through the morning and early afternoon hours.

The forecast area will remain dry today with a subsident atmosphere
and overall dry profile in place.  Have increased high temperatures
slightly as heights rise by about 8 decameters over the area with
good insolation.  Middle to upper 40s should be common over the area
today as the mid level ridge continue to build just northwest of the
area.  Overnight low temps tomorrow could still dip into low to mid
20s under clear skies and a slight northerly breeze.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Rising heights on Saturday along with a downslope component to the
850 mb winds and plenty of sunshine should help warm temperatures
into the low to mid 50s.

Split flow will keep northeast Kansas between the northern and
southern streams through Tuesday. This will keep temperatures mild
into mid week with the polar jet remaining north and associated
cold air well to our north and northeast. Models begin to differ
with the next upper level trough to affect the area late Tuesday
into Wednesday. GFS/ECMWF and CMC differ with the northward extend
to the moisture return with the GFS the driest and furthest south
and the ECMWF farthest north with the CMC in the middle. At this
time there may be enough moisture return to bring some light
precipitation to areas of east central Kansas early Wednesday
morning. The northern and southern stream troughs merge over the
central plains or just to the east Wednesday night and then progress
eastward on Thursday. If this scenario occurs then there may be a
brief period of a mix of rain and snow Wednesday night for areas
near and south of I-35. Overall daytime highs look to average some 8
to 12 degrees above normal with highs in the 50s. Lows in the 20s
and 30s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

The eastward advance of the back edge of a shield of MVFR stratus
has slowed. Present indications are that MVFR ceilings may persist
until around 10Z at MHK and until around 13Z at TOP/FOE. Occasional
IFR ceilings may occur at TOP/FOE, particularly in the 08Z-12Z time
frame. Following the departure of the stratus shield, VFR conditions
are expected to become established and continue through the day
Friday into Friday night. North-northwest to north winds gusting to
18-20 kt are expected to continue into the overnight hours tonight
and through the day on Friday. Winds are expected to be weakening by
late Friday afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Cohen



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