000
FXUS65 KVEF 190849
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
149 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through
Thursday before returning to near normal Friday and Saturday. Look
for more passing high clouds mid to late week as well. A turn to
wetter, breezy and cooler weather looks to occur Sunday into early
next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Thursday night.

An upper low is positioned over eastern Utah with satellite showing
lower clouds wrapping back as far west as eastern Nevada currently.
Also, clouds continue to slowly dissipate along the cold front
across southern Mohave County.

Behind the exiting upper low temperatures will stay well below
normal today. However, lighter winds and more sunshine under ridging
should make the cooler temps more tolerable.

Active pattern over the eastern Pacific will send an impulse across
northern California/Pac NW tonight/Wednesday with a second system
arriving Thursday night. A few showers may develop as far south as
Mono/far northwest Inyo County Wednesday. Main affect on the area
will be an increase in mid-high clouds during the period.
Temperatures will continue to moderate back closer to normal by
Thursday. Locally run 7.5km model shows no significant winds today
through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.

Active weather is expected in the eastern Pacific with a strong low
pressure system dropping south from the Aleutian Islands and
absorbing a second system lifting north along the coast of British
Columbia. Further south, a shortwave on the far southern end of the
trough ejects inland over northern California and northwestern
Nevada. This AR event is forecast to bring heavy rain to northern
California and the PacNW. For us, conditions will be dry with
seasonal temperatures under a dry southwest flow aloft.

Over the weekend, a strong parent low sets up over the Gulf of
Alaska with troughing extending all the way to Southern California.
This pattern is expected to bring extensive precipitation to
northern California, the northern Sierra, Oregon, and Washington
state. For our area, we are expecting temperatures to slowly trend
downward through Monday with an increasing chance of precipitation
beginning in our northern areas on Sunday and spreading south into
Monday. The ensembles appear to be in very good agreement with this
high impact precip event for the aforementioned areas. For Las
Vegas, the NBM probability of seeing measurable precip is 32 percent
Monday night but the probability drops off quickly when precip
amounts are increased. Strong winds will be another concern for
Monday across portions of the area with the highest probability of
wind gusts over 40 mph across the Western Mojave Desert in San
Bernardino County in southeast California.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A typical diurnal wind pattern is
expected through the TAF period, with light southwest winds this
morning becoming northeast at 10kts or less by mid-day.  Winds will
turn back to the southwest and decrease to 6kts or less by mid-
evening and remain that way through tonight.  A few high clouds will
be seen today before becoming more prevalent overnight into
Wednesday morning. However, CIG`s will remain AOA 20kft and are not
expected cause any operational impacts.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southeast
California...Typical diurnal winds will be see at most TAF sites
over the next few days. Winds will generally be light at 10kts or
less, with the exception of KIFP where slightly stronger winds are
expected this afternoon.  High clouds AOA 20kft will moves across
most sites this evening and overnight with the exception of KBIH
where CIGs may drop to around 15kft overnight.  No precipitation is
forecast for any TAF site through Wednesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to
report any significant weather or impacts according to standard
operating procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Planz

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