000
FXUS65 KVEF 051838
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1040 AM PST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures and sunny skies will prevail today.
A minor storm system will bring snow to the Sierra and gusty winds
across the Mojave Desert Saturday. Another round of gusty winds is
likely on Monday before cooler temperatures and precipitation
chances return for much of the rest of next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Quiet weather with light winds through this afternoon
along with temperatures running several degrees above normal. Weak
system moving into the region tonight may bring some enhanced
downslope winds to the Eastern Sierra, but at this time these winds
look to have little impact to the Owens Valley. No updates needed at
this time.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
130 AM PST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Satellite loop showed clear
skies areawide early this morning. Surface obs showed light winds
and seasonable temperatures. High pressure was building in today,
and the warmer air mass plus strengthening early March sun will send
high temperatures well above normal today. The next feature of
interest is a jet streak seen diving down the west side of a cold
low pressure system well off the Oregon coast. It will round the
base of the low this afternoon, swing through northern California
tonight and into the Great Basin Saturday, bringing breezy
conditions to much of our area. Earlier, it looked like the best
chance for strong winds would be in northern Lincoln county, and
while this area should still see gusts over 30 mph, downslope winds
have also emerged as a potential issue in the lee of the Sierra
tonight into Saturday morning. Higher resolution models show gusts
up to about 50 mph down to mid-slope, with little or no penetration
into the Owens Valley, so will forgo an Advisory. This wave will be
moisture starved, so precipitation is not a concern, and modest
height falls will be offset by increased mixing, so high
temperatures will not drop much if at all on Saturday. KLAS is a
solid favorite to see its first 75 degree temperature since November
18th either tomorrow or Sunday or both.

.LONG TERM...A relatively active pattern is expected next week.
After this weekend`s shortwave exits northeast, a much broader
trough is expected to slowly dive southward across the Pacific coast
and eventually come on shore and push east to the four corners. At
this time, it looks like this is fairly well agreed upon in the
ensemble and deterministic solutions since 12Z this morning with the
main details being a) when/where the low eventually comes on shore,
b) how strong/weak it will be when it does, c) the speed it takes
after coming onshore.

The first detail (a) will be the main player for precip chances, and
while none of the ensemble clusters in the 12Z run favor much in the
way of meaningful precip for the desert valleys, some outcomes
produce some significant QPF in the Sierra and potentially Owens
Valley Tuesday through Wednesday. Currently the NBM run shows this
well, with around 0.50" of QPF in the Sierra during this period but
keeping KBIH dry. Only minor amounts across Nye and Lincoln
Counties.

The other details will be the main contributers to wind, cooler
temperatures, and the duration of both. Which could be as quick as a
24 hour passage in some cases or 72 hours in others.

In summary, next week looks overall minor with most of the scenarios
on the table, but some low confidence potential for significant
snow/rain in the Sierra. Otherwise, several opportunities for breezy
days, especially mid to late week, look likely.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds are expected today following
along diurnal wind trends through early Saturday. On Saturday,
southwest winds will increase mid-morning, peaking during the
afternoon between 10-20 knots gusting near 25 knots through Saturday
evening. FEW-SCT clouds will move in tonight at or above 20k feet.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most areas will see light winds today following diurnal
wind trends. The exception will be KBIH and KIFP where winds will
come up to 10-15 knots for a few hours today out of the south and
north respectively. Gusts up to around 20 knots will be possible
during this time. On Saturday, widespread southwest winds with
speeds between 10-20 knots are expected. Speeds will peak during the
afternoon with gusts between 20-30 knots. FEW-SCT clouds will move
in tonight at or above 20k feet.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gorelow
Short Term...Morgan
Long Term...Boucher
Aviation...Guillet

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