Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
253 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a distinct shortwave working its way
across the Dakotas. This feature is responsible for the garden
variety showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing across parts of
western South Dakota. Guidance shows these showers tracking eastward
through the day, although dry air across the northeast CWA may slow
the eastward progression some. Therefore kept the likely POPS
confined to the western CWA and tapered them off after 00Z as the
whole system shifts to the east. Instability is lacking and looks
like the predominate weather type will be rain showers with an
isolated thunderstorm possible across the southern CWA. There should
be a break in precipitation Tuesday afternoon before another round
of precipitation moves into the region Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

The extended will be defined by a series of upper level troughs and
lows. These features will keep off and on showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast, especially across central SD. Chances for thunder
will increase over the weekend as a sfc trough sets up over the
plains. Increased cloud cover and rain will hold temperatures closer
to average, in the upper 70s to lower 80s, through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will slide from southwest to
northeast across the region this afternoon and evening. Timing
wise it is expected -SHRA will be in the KPIR and KMBG vicinities
by mid afternoon, then the ABR and ATY areas after 00Z. MVFR CIGS
are also anticipated at the KPIR TAF site beginning around 00Z
and persisting into the overnight hours.




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