Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 112333 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
533 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

As an upper trough and weak sfc low pressure move through the
region, light rain and snow will progress from west to east this
evening and overnight. Moisture in the snow growth region will be
lost after midnight east of the James Valley, so some freezing
drizzle will be possible, mainly over the Coteau, before the precip
comes to an end by 12z.

Models have been a little quick to saturate the column this
afternoon leading to overdone pops and radar returns that don`t
reflect observations. Lift and moisture will increase by this
evening. Therefore, still anticipate some light snow accumulation
from the James Valley east...half an inch or less.

With warmer than average temperatures expected again on Wednesday,
fog development is favorable in areas that still have some snow on
the ground. Have patchy to areas of fog mentioned through mid
morning Wednesday for eastern SD. Another sfc front and upper trough
will sweep through late Wednesday bringing some additional very
light snow.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

The long term begins with an upper level trough and surface front
exiting the CWA to the east. Light pcpn may be possible early
Thursday morning in west central Minnesota. The rest of the forecast
period is dry and mild, with the warmest temperatures occurring
Friday through Saturday with highs reaching the upper 30s to the mid
40s. The warmth is due to good mixing winds with the passage of a
dry upper level trough and surface front. If the GFS is correct,
colder temperatures could begin moving into the region on Sunday as
a surface high pressure builds in from the north. The ECMWF does not
show the cold high pressure and is much warmer with surface temps
through early next week. The current and projected phase of the MJO
favors above normal temperatures through the long term and beyond.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

An narrow band of precipitation, mainly snow, will track across
the central and eastern part of the CWA this evening into the
early overnight hours. IFR/MVFR cigs are possible with the
precipitation. VFR conditions will prevail across the area on
Wednesday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin



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