Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 210553
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
153 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure will spread showers across the lower
to mid-Hudson valley and northwest Connecticut tonight, while
areas from the Capital District on north remain dry. A large
area of high pressure over eastern Canada will bring dry
seasonably warm weather Thursday and Friday. The next chance of
showers will then be on Saturday as low pressure approaches from
the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 130 am, light rainfall ongoing across far southern
Litchfield County; otherwise, the CWA is dry. A few showers
could continue to brush southern portions of Ulster, Dutchess,
and Litchfield Counties the remainder of the night per upstream
radar and the HRRR which has a good handle on the activity.
Elsewhere, a frontal boundary is approaching from the north,
just crossing the international border with NY attm. Between
this front and the cloud cover/precip over the south, winds have
calmed with mainly clear skies, which has allowed temps to drop
quicker than predicted. Updated low temps downward in these
locales. As we head through the night, cloud cover will increase
modestly from north to south as the front tracks toward the
area, but it is expected to be a dry frontal passage due to the
antecedent dry airmass. A couple of patches of fog cannot be
ruled out ahead of the front in sheltered valleys tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Friday will be nice early summer days with high
pressure over eastern Canada bringing a dry, seasonably warm
northeasterly flow into Friday. Have gone with a blend of MOS
guidance for temperatures through the period with near normal
values near 80 during the day. Nighttime temperatures Thursday
night will be a bit cooler than normal due to mainly clear skies
with low dew points resulting in lows ranging from the 40s
across the north country to the 50s from the Capital District
southward.

The next chance of showers will be late Friday night and
Saturday as a mid-level low pressure area approaches from the
west. Meanwhile, a low-level frontal boundary over the mid-
Atlantic region will begin to lift north. Showers will increase
from southwest to northeast across the area starting late Friday
night as these systems approach our area. For now thunder
chances look to be rather low into Saturday with no real
instability as surface ridging along the northeast coast will
keep our area from warming and destabilizing. Based on this have
gone with just a slight chance of thunder Saturday afternoon
although the chance of showers looks pretty high. Clouds and
showers will keep temperatures cooler on Saturday with highs in
many places not much higher than 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM Wed June 20 2018

The long term forecast period will begin with multiple shortwave
troughs and active weather, and will end with high pressure building
into the region.

Saturday night through Monday...An approaching shortwave and
associated low over the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorm to the region Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.
The best chance for thunderstorms will be late Sunday afternoon with
a secondary and more moist cold front progressing through the
region. The ECMWF/GFS both suggest some surface based instability
and shear over the region further suggesting the potential for
thunderstorms late Sunday. Low pressure will redevelop over New
England into Monday and a couple weak lingering boundaries look to
swing through the region. This will keep conditions mostly cloudy
with a chance for some scattered rain showers throughout the day on
Monday. Highs on Sunday will be mild in the 70s to low 80s while
highs on Monday will be a bit cooler in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...High pressure will build into eastern New
York and western New England from the northwest on Tuesday and
remain settled over the region through Wednesday. This will provide
ample sunshine and southwest flow advecting temperatures in the low-
to-mid 80s into the region. Lows throughout this period will be in
the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak disturbance passing south of Long Island this morning
tonight will bring clouds and a shower close to the mid Hudson
Valley and southwest New England. A weak cold front will move
south from the St Lawrence River Valley with little low-level
moisture, as high pressure will build in south of Jmaes Bay this
afternoon into tonight.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with calm winds will allow
for some radiational cooling at KPSF/KGFL for the potential for
patchy IFR mist with reductions in vsbys to around 2SM. A TEMPO
group was used at these sites between 06Z-10Z. High clouds will
increase which should abate any mist formation.

Some showers will pass close to KPOU, but only a VCSH group was
used based on the latest 3-km HRRR. Overall, VFR conditions will
continue from 12Z at all the TAF sites with some lingering mid
and high clouds, but a trend to mostly sunny conditions is
likely in the afternoon with the large Canadian anticyclone
ridging in.

The winds will be light to calm this morning, and then be from
the north to northeast at 4-9 kts in the late morning into the
afternoon, before becoming light to calm again early this
evening.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the week with
minimum RH values falling into the 30 to 50 percent range each
day. Light southwesterly winds today will become north-
northwesterly at 6 to 12 mph Thursday, and light south to
southeasterly Friday. Aside from some showers tonight over
portions of Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield Counties, dry
weather is expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A dry and seasonable airmass takes hold through the remainder
of the week. Aside from some showers tonight over
portions of Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield Counties, dry
weather is expected for the remainder of the week. The next
chance for widespread precipitation will be over the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/Thompson
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...Cebulko
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson



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