Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 221406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1006 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Fair but chilly conditions are expected through the weekend.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible from time to time
as disturbances in the upper levels of the atmosphere move over
the region.


As of 10AM EDT, the snow showers have moved out of the forecast
area as the coastal low pushes further eastward. Snowfall
reports across Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties this morning
range from a tenth of an inch to just under 6 inches.
Temperatures currently range from the mid 20s to the upper 30s
with decreasing clouds. That being said, have made minor
adjustments to the hourly grids to reflect recent trends/obs and
sent updates to NDFD and web servers.

Prev Disc...The 6 am surface analysis shows the coastal low
centered about 150 miles southeast of Chatham MA with pressure
falls occurring it its northeast. The storm will move
northeastward and is expected to reach Nova Scotia by this
evening. Guidance indicates some weak ridging aloft should be
induced across the area ahead of the next short wave as it moves
across the Great Lakes region. Cloud cover will gradually
decrease across the area today especially this afternoon. Winds
will become brisk and gusty in the cyclonic flow with good
mixing. Temperatures will continue to run below normal by around
5 degrees.


In the wake of the departing coastal storm northern stream
short waves will maintain a trough over the Northeastern United
States. While at the surface, high pressure from over Hudson Bay
will drift southeastward across eastern Canada while building
southward across the region. This result in cool, below normal
daytime temperatures along with isolated to scattered showers at
times. Highs Friday and Saturday will be mainly in the 30s with
some lower 40s in the mid Hudson Valley and upper 20s across the
higher terrain of the western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and
southern Green Mountains. Nighttime lows will be in the teens
to mid 20s.


An sharp upper level trough will be moving from New England eastward
into the western Atlantic for Sunday.  With cyclonic flow around
this feature, there may be a few passing snow showers or flurries
during the day on Sunday (especially across western New England),
but moisture is very limited, so coverage will be rather low. Little
to no accumulation is expected. Highs will continue to be below
normal with highs mainly in the 30s.

Behind this departing trough, upper level ridging will finally build
into the area for the start of the week.  Despite the building
heights, it probably won`t get too warm, as a very strong high
pressure area across eastern Canada allows for a persistent
northeast flow across the region for Monday and Tuesday.  Highs
should moderate back into the 40s and lows will be in the 20s with
dry conditions and a partly to mostly clear sky.

The next storm system looks to approach the region from the west for
the middle of the week.  Although the models don`t agree on the
exact timing or track, some light precipitation (mainly in the form
of rain) looks to move from west to east across the region thanks to
a period of warm advection.  Will just go with slight chc to chc
POPs for Tuesday night through Wednesday night with p-type based of
the diurnal temp curve for now.


During the day today, VFR conditions will be in place for all sites
behind a departing coastal storm.  With a strong pressure pressure
gradient in place, NW winds will continue to be around 10-15 kts,
with some higher gusts possible, especially at KALB. Ceilings will
generally be bkn-ovc with mid or high level clouds around 15 kft,
although some sct-bkn cigs around 3500-4000 ft are possible too,
especially at KALB/KPOU.

Some of these lower clouds around 3500-4000 ft will increase
overnight, especially at KALB/KGFL, thanks to an approaching upper
level disturbance from the northwest, but it should continue to
remain VFR.  Northwest winds should decrease to about 5 kts for all


Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


Fair but chilly conditions are expected through the weekend.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible from time to time
as disturbances in the upper levels of the atmosphere move over
the region.


No hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least early next
week. As mainly fair weather is expected. Isolated to scattered
showers are possible at times with little to no measurable
precipitation expected.

A slow diurnal snowmelt will occur over the next several days,
with temperatures above freezing during the day and below
freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways
with minimal, if any, rises.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




LONG TERM...Frugis
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