Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240858
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
358 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be milder and mainly dry on Saturday, however another
round of mixed precipitation and rain is expected tonight into
Sunday as a complex storm system moves from the Great Lakes late
tonight through our region on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today...Expect mainly dry conditions as a ridge of high
pressure moves across the region with the center of high
pressure located across eastern Canada. It will be a relatively
mild day for late February with highs in the mid 30s to upper
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winter Weather Advisory 1 AM to 1 PM Sunday for all areas except
the Greater Capital District and mid Hudson Valley.

For tonight...Clouds will increase this evening from southwest
to northeast as a warm front moves into the Ohio Valley late
this evening. A nearly ideal cold air damming situation is
setting up as cold air will drain southward and westward from
the high pressure center which will be up over the Canadian
Maritimes. After an initial burst of snow with a couple of
inches possible across northern areas, most of the precipitation
overnight will fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain
based on partial thickness values. The areas which may see
little in the way of mixed precipitation include the Greater
Capital District and mid Hudson Valley which after a little
sleet will change to rain. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s
to mid 30s.

On Sunday the mixed precipitation will likely change to rain
before tapering off during the afternoon from southwest to
northeast as low pressure moves across the region carrying a
cold front through the region late in the day. Total ice
accretion across the Winter Weather Advisory area is expected to
be up to three tenths of an inch before the changeover to plain
rain. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Dry weather is expected Sunday night and Monday as high
pressure builds east from the mid West. Expect partly cloudy skies
Sunday night with a good deal of sun on Monday. Lows Sunday
night will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with highs on Monday in
the upper 30s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period of relative calm Tuesday-Wednesday, before possible storm
system affects at least portions of region for Thursday-Friday.

High pressure will translate east from the Ohio Valley to the mid
Atlantic coast Tuesday-Wednesday, bringing generally fair and mild
conditions. A weak disturbance passing north of the region could
bring some clouds, and perhaps rain/snow showers to the Adirondacks
late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Otherwise, expect high
temperatures to reach the mid 40s to lower 50s, warmest on Wednesday
in valley areas. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 20s.

There are signals from multiple global models and their ensemble
suites of a developing coastal storm for Thursday-Friday, although
the exact details regarding any track or evolution are obviously
sketchy at this time range. However, several pieces of the puzzle
which suggest some form of a slow moving, potentially high-impact
storm include a possible strong blocking upper level high
retrograding west/southwest to the south of Greenland, as well as
strong pieces of energy both in the northern and southern stream
approaching from the west. If the two incoming pieces of energy are
timed just right and phase, the retrograding block to the north
could allow for a closed mid/upper tropospheric low to develop, and
could allow any surface low to remain slow moving, although too
strong of a block could shunt the storm farther south and east of
the region and limit any impacts. These initial signals could favor
an elevation snow storm across the region, if not more widespread.
So again, trends will need to be watched through the upcoming week.
For now, chances of rain/snow in valleys, and mainly snow for higher
elevations have been included for late Thursday into Friday. Daytime
highs are currently forecast to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday, cooling to the 30s to around 40 Friday, although these
temperatures could be colder if stratiform precipitation occurs.
Overnight lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower/mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An occluded front will sweep across the TAF sites before
daybreak. Weak high pressure will build across for Saturday,
before a developing storm system over the southern Plains tracks
northeast into the Great Lakes region for Saturday night into
Sunday.

IFR/LIFR conditions, mainly Cigs, are expected to slowly
improve to MVFR between 07Z-10Z/Sat, as winds switch to the
west. However, it may take until mid to late morning Saturday
for ceilings to return to VFR levels, as winds switch to the
W-NW and increase to around 10-15 kts (a few higher gusts
possible at KALB/KPSF up to 20-25 KT) and ceilings return to
around 3500 ft.

Mainly VFR conditions are then expected for Saturday afternoon
and evening. Winds will decrease, and veer from the northwest
into the north to northeast at 5-10 KT, decreasing to less than
8 KT after sunset.

Some light rain may develop at KPOU after 19Z/Sat, as an upper
level disturbance passes south of the region. Despite light
rain, generally VFR conditions are expected.

Low level wind shear will remain likely through daybreak, as
surface winds remain fairly light from the southwest to west at
less than 8 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL become west to
northwest and increase to 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN...SLEET.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice jams remain in place on multiple locations on the Mohawk
River from about Lock 9 through the Twin Bridges and on the
upper Hudson River in central Warren County.

Expect mainly dry weather into this evening. However,
widespread precipitation will overspread the area later tonight
and continue most of Sunday as another low pressure system
approaches and moves across the region. A wintry mix of
precipitation is expected in many areas before transitioning to
plain rain by mid day Sunday. At this time QPF amounts of three
quarters of an inch to an inch liquid equivalent are expected.
Temperatures will be above normal today expecting highs in the
upper 30s to about 50 degrees with temperatures dropping back
into the upper 20s to mid 30s tonight which will limit
snowmelt. Runoff would result in some river rises and could
cause movement of ice jams. If confidence for flooding increases
then a flood watch and/or hydrologic advisory will need to be
issued.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-
     082>084.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11



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