245
FXUS63 KAPX 182333
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
733 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/storm chances return Saturday

- Mainly dry Sunday through the first half of the week

- Potentially active stretch of showers/storms through the
  second half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Zonal mid/upper-level flow will reside overhead into tonight as
surface high pressure placed squarely over the Great Lakes gets
shoved east of the region. A shortwave will pivot across the region
tonight and Saturday, providing ample forcing aloft to support a
weak cyclone that will trek across the lower peninsula Saturday into
Saturday night.

Forecast Details:

A fair bit of uncertainty still exists in how shower/storm chances
will evolve later tonight and Saturday across northern Michigan.
Current confidence is that a line of strong storms will form across
southern Minnesota/northern Iowa later this evening and work
southeast through the morning along the instability gradient draped
across Illinois and Indiana. Instability is expected to surge north
with time, eventually working into the southern half of the state
later Saturday morning/early afternoon. Additional development along
the north side of the line will be possible, and may skirt far
southern portions of the CWA. However, strongest storms are
anticipated to remain south of the area Saturday.

The evolution of this line will have impacts on shower/storm
potential further north across the area through the day. Current
expectation is that additional activity will initiate further north
of the aforementioned line later this evening in closer proximity to
the shortwave in the presence of marginal instability. These showers
and potential embedded storms would then across the lake into the
Northwoods Saturday morning. With little instability to work with,
severe weather is not expected with this activity Saturday at this
time. Localized heavy rainfall potential also appears limited for
most of the area due to the progressive nature of expected
showers/storms. Rain chances will diminish from west to east
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details:

Shortwave troughing centered over the Great Lakes will slide east of
the region Sunday into Monday as ridging folds over the Upper
Midwest. Subsidence at the ridge/trough inflection point aloft will
build surface high pressure across the Northwoods, likely keeping
most of the area dry through the first half of next week. The caveat
may be increasing heat and humidity building west of Lake Michigan
Monday and Tuesday, supporting ample instability and potential
thunderstorm development that may track into parts of northern
Michigan. That said, current confidence is that this potential will
hold off until the Tuesday evening/Wednesday timeframe when said
instability looks to nose its way over the area. Broad ridging looks
to expand through the second half of the week, placing the Great
Lakes under the southern periphery of the jet with a warm, moist
airmass in place -- potentially setting the stage for an active
stretch of showers and storms heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Gradual worsening Saturday.

Initial area of weak showers crossing eastern upper MI this
evening. A lull after that, before another push of showers and
eventually a few TSRA moves in from the west very late tonight,
but mainly on Saturday. Cigs will lower with time, with all
sites eventually becoming MVFR Sat afternoon, and IFR at
CIU/PLN.

Wsw winds become somewhat breezy Saturday at TVC/MBL. Lighter
winds further north.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JZ