


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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245 FXUS63 KAPX 182333 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 733 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower/storm chances return Saturday - Mainly dry Sunday through the first half of the week - Potentially active stretch of showers/storms through the second half of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Pattern Synopsis: Zonal mid/upper-level flow will reside overhead into tonight as surface high pressure placed squarely over the Great Lakes gets shoved east of the region. A shortwave will pivot across the region tonight and Saturday, providing ample forcing aloft to support a weak cyclone that will trek across the lower peninsula Saturday into Saturday night. Forecast Details: A fair bit of uncertainty still exists in how shower/storm chances will evolve later tonight and Saturday across northern Michigan. Current confidence is that a line of strong storms will form across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa later this evening and work southeast through the morning along the instability gradient draped across Illinois and Indiana. Instability is expected to surge north with time, eventually working into the southern half of the state later Saturday morning/early afternoon. Additional development along the north side of the line will be possible, and may skirt far southern portions of the CWA. However, strongest storms are anticipated to remain south of the area Saturday. The evolution of this line will have impacts on shower/storm potential further north across the area through the day. Current expectation is that additional activity will initiate further north of the aforementioned line later this evening in closer proximity to the shortwave in the presence of marginal instability. These showers and potential embedded storms would then across the lake into the Northwoods Saturday morning. With little instability to work with, severe weather is not expected with this activity Saturday at this time. Localized heavy rainfall potential also appears limited for most of the area due to the progressive nature of expected showers/storms. Rain chances will diminish from west to east Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Shortwave troughing centered over the Great Lakes will slide east of the region Sunday into Monday as ridging folds over the Upper Midwest. Subsidence at the ridge/trough inflection point aloft will build surface high pressure across the Northwoods, likely keeping most of the area dry through the first half of next week. The caveat may be increasing heat and humidity building west of Lake Michigan Monday and Tuesday, supporting ample instability and potential thunderstorm development that may track into parts of northern Michigan. That said, current confidence is that this potential will hold off until the Tuesday evening/Wednesday timeframe when said instability looks to nose its way over the area. Broad ridging looks to expand through the second half of the week, placing the Great Lakes under the southern periphery of the jet with a warm, moist airmass in place -- potentially setting the stage for an active stretch of showers and storms heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Gradual worsening Saturday. Initial area of weak showers crossing eastern upper MI this evening. A lull after that, before another push of showers and eventually a few TSRA moves in from the west very late tonight, but mainly on Saturday. Cigs will lower with time, with all sites eventually becoming MVFR Sat afternoon, and IFR at CIU/PLN. Wsw winds become somewhat breezy Saturday at TVC/MBL. Lighter winds further north. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...JZ