Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210213
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1013 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Skies remain clear across our entire CWA late this evening thanks
to strong high pressure centered directly overhead. Temps have
quickly fallen into the 40s with sunset and diminishing winds...
on their way down to overnight lows in the 30s. Still expect most
locations along and north of M-72 to see areas of frost develop
late tonight as lows drop to or within a couple of degrees of
freezing. Will certainly maintain the Frost Advisory for these
areas overnight into early Sunday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...Frost expected tonight...

High impact weather potential: Frost across eastern upper and a good
portion of northern lower Michigan later tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Large area of seasonably chilly Canadian
high pressure continues to build into the northern Great Lakes
region...forcing active baroclinic axis further south with time.
Albeit somewhat delayed, low clouds managed to scour out earlier
today as northeast winds brought in increasingly dry air. Still some
passing higher level clouds, especially the further south one goes.
Combination of those clearing skies, increasingly dry low level air,
and light winds sets the stage for a late season frost for much of
the area tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends and
associated frost concerns/attendant headlines.

Details: High pressure settles right overhead tonight, bringing
mostly clear skies and light winds along with it. As mentioned
earlier, low level moisture has started to aggressively dry out from
north to south, with dewpoints dropping into the 20s and 30s north
of M-68. This drying will continue to spread south the remainder of
this afternoon and evening, increasing the concerns for some chilly
overnight lows. Backward run trajectory analysis confirms latest
statistical guidance of dropping eastern upper and north
central/northeast lower Michigan well down into the frost-producing
30s by the early morning hours of Monday morning (similar to what
occurred northwest of Lake Superior last night). May even see a few
of our traditional ice box locations make a run to freezing, if not
even a smidge below. Expect a bit milder readings south of M-72
where moisture will be the latest to exit. All in all, really like
the look of inherited frost advisory, with no areal changes needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...Chances of Rain South of M-55 Monday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: High pressure will continue to dominate northern
Michigan`s weather through Monday and beyond for most of the
forecast area. Models continue to hint at a another weak area of low
pressure over the Ohio River Valley Monday afternoon producing some
rain showers over the southern parts of the forecast area (mainly
south of M-55), where synoptic lift and deeper moisture coincide.
Will increase pops for those portions as all models have moved the
moisture/synoptic lift farther north the past two runs. Clouds will
diminish late Monday night/early Tuesday from north to south as high
pressure and drier air push in behind the departing aforementioned
low pressure system. Tuesday and Wednesday will be precipitation
free for the entire forecast area. Highs will be in the low to mid
70s Monday and then mid 70s to near 80 Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows
will generally be in the mid to upper 40s. Winds will continue to
remain on the light side through the forecast period as high
pressure is overhead and pressure gradients remain relaxed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

High pressure continues over the Great Lakes region producing a
quiet, warm, and dry Thursday. Rain chances return Friday and last
through the weekend as long range models have consensus on an area
of low pressure meandering over the upper Great Lakes region. Won`t
be a washout weekend, but will be partly to mostly cloudy with
periodic rain showers and possibly some thunder. Highs will be in
the mid 70s to near 80 (eastern upper only in the upper 60s to low
70s). Lows will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

High pressure will maintain control across Northern Michigan
tonight into Monday. An elongated area of low pressure will lift
thru the Ohio Valley...with the northern edge of the associated
moisture shield reaching into Central Lower Michigan by Monday
evening. Conditions will remain VFR thru the 24 hour TAF forecast
period...although clouds will increase and cigs will lower from
south to north on Monday. There is a small chance of showers
around TVC and MBL by Monday afternoon...but the chance is too
small to include in the TAF forecast for now. Light/variable winds
tonight will become SE AOB 10 kts on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

No significant marine issues as high pressure brings light
winds for the next several days. Mostly dry conditions, although may
see a few showers across central Lake Michigan and Lake Huron Monday
and Monday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for MIZ008-015>019-
     021>024-027>030.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB



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