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059
FXUS63 KAPX 082036
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
336 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

...Increasing precip chances late...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Some light freezing
drizzle/light icing is possible in spots later tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals
broad troughing through Canada and a short-wave trough axis sliding
out of the northern/central Rockies into the Plains. Area of
developing low pressure is along the front range of the Rockies
just ahead of the short-wave trough.

Closer to home, surface low pressure is over western Quebec with
a cold front that stretches down through central Upper Michigan
and on into the Midwest. Corridor of stratus spans the northern
Plains into Upper Michigan along and behind the front. South of
the bridge we started the day with some sunshine and lots of
mid/high cloud cover. But more or less solid stratocu (with a lake
component) has enveloped northern and central Lower Michigan
through the course of the day. Otherwise the weather remains quiet
and somewhat mild with diminishing southwest winds ahead of the
front.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precip development and type later
tonight.

Surface cold front is expected to ease down into the Straits
region before stalling and may yet bring some spotty light precip
(SN/DZ/FZDZ) into parts of eastern Upper Michigan over the next
several hours. South of bridge, generally quiet weather continues
for much of tonight. Forecast soundings do show a modestly deep
low level saturated layer across the region through the night
suggesting there could be a little bit of drizzle/freezing
drizzle...especially overnight. But I don`t think the saturated
layer is deep enough to warrant inclusion in the forecast at this
juncture. So...plan is to have a dry forecast across northern
Lower MI for much of the night.

Meanwhile. upstream short-wave trough and deepening surface low
slide into the Midwest tonight, with the surface low further
deepening and tracking up through northern Lower Michigan along
the stalled boundary on Monday. Strong moisture advection/forcing
and a widespread area of precipitation is expected to develop off
to our S/SW later this evening and spread up through Lower
Michigan overnight, reaching our southern two tier of counties
toward Monday morning. Based on forecast soundings/thermal
profiles/surface temps...precip should largely be rain although
just a touch of freezing rain is possible across the higher
terrain early on.

Not planning any headlines at this juncture. But later shifts may
consider if freezing drizzle/freezing rain becomes a bit more
robust than currently expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

High impact weather potential: Wintry mix of ice, snow, and rain
Monday with lake effect/enhanced snow behind the departing system
Tuesday and Wednesday.

A deepening low pressure system traversing from the western Great
Lakes and trekking towards northern Michigan will continue to usher
in "warmer" temperatures as most of the forecast area resides in the
warm sector of the system. This will produce chances of a mix of
rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow. This mix will last much into
Monday as temperatures vary greatly from north to south...with
eastern upper only reaching into the mid 20s, while the southern
part of the forecast area will still see highs in the upper 30s to
near 40. This will be tricky to pinpoint the exact areas of p-
types...and will most likely be a scenario where the forecast
changes throughout the day. As the storm departs to the east and
cold air filters in on northwesterly winds...the entire forecast
area will transition to only snow. This lake effect snow may be
enhanced at times early on as lingering deeper synoptic moisture
remains. Winds will be light and variable as the center of the low
pressure system treks over northern Michigan and become
northwesterly late Monday into early Tuesday morning behind the
system. Winds and fetch along Lake Superior will be the most
favorable for lake effect snow over eastern upper...as a Lake
Superior connection for northwest lower will only occur for several
hours before the winds back to westerly...ending the connection.
Eastern upper should see the higher amounts of snow...possibly some
locations seeing 6-10 inches. Advisory headlines will most likely be
needed at some point. Winds once again pick up in intensity (but not
nearly as high as Sunday) as the system departs Tuesday
morning...with gusts as high as 25 mph. Temperatures will decrease
throughout the day Monday, and only reach into the teens to low 20s
during the day Tuesday and even colder Wednesday. Overnight lows
will be in the single digits to teens above zero Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

CAA continuing through Wednesday night, with 850mb temperatures
still near -20C...this, along with lingering moisture will continue
to  generate lake effect snow through Wednesday evening. High
pressure is then progged to build into the Great Lakes region from
the northern Plains. This drier air will give the forecast area a
very quick reprive from precipitation before other weak disturbances
moves in from the west and renews chances of light snow through the
rest of the period. Temperatures will reach into the low to mid 20s
Thursday , but moderating a bit to the low 30s by Friday. Lows will
be in the single digits above zero Wednesday night as cold air
advection continues it`s assault on the forecast area and warm a bit
each night thereafter...to near 20 by Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

MVFR cloud cover has redeveloped across northern Lower Michigan
over the last few hours...and will persist into tonight. Gusty SW
winds will gradually diminish after 21Z or so.

Tonight into Monday: Storm system will deepen over the Midwest
later tonight and track up through northern Lower Michigan on
Monday. Widespread area of precipitation will develop later
tonight and expand up into northern Michigan late tonight into
Monday. System has trended further northward over the last few
days suggesting that much of precipitation will be rain on Monday,
although there could be a brief period of light freezing drizzle
or freezing rain early on. Otherwise, conditions will deteriorate
to IFR later tonight through Monday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Gusty southwest winds continue to weaken this afternoon...below
gale force at this juncture. Thus gale warnings will be cancelled
with the afternoon forecast. A few small craft advisories will
replace the gales through the evening.

Relatively lighter winds/waves for later tonight into Monday.
Stronger winds develop later Monday and Monday night as an area of
low pressure tracks through the region. Additional marine
headlines may be needed at that time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ341-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA