181
FXUS63 KAPX 160037
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
822 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Hot and humid air settles over the region tonight before chances of
showers and storms move across the northwoods. Watching for isolated
severe potential Wednesday evening.

-High pressure returns quiet weather this weekend. Potentially
 active weather develops midweek next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Tonight... Forecast remains quiet tonight as the current boundary
north of the CWA stays over the northern part of Lake Superior. Dew
points in the mid to upper 60s keep overnight lows warm and
uncomfortable to those without air conditioning. Otherwise, mid to
high clouds will linger across the region ahead of the active
weather.

Wednesday... Hot and humid weather breifly returns across the
northwoods as the warm sector builds across northern lower. Daytime
highs will climb to the upper 80s across northern lower Wednesday
afternoon before a cold front to the northwest slowly progresses
southward in the evening hours. Showers ahead of the front could
begin across northern lower as early as late morning/early afternoon
as instability quickly builds and pops off some cells. Model
soundings show the potential of a strong/severe storms with
moderate mid level lapse rates and strong inverted-v profiles. SPC
keeps the CWA under a marginal risk for severe storms mainly because
of a lack of shear, but one or two storms potentiality producing
severe level winds gusts can be expected across northern lower.
Otherwise; convective driven showers will likely produce isolated
heavy showers due to PWAT values near 1.5" and cloud layer movement
producing training storms. QPF values will range from a trace of
precip, to the chance of one or two isolated areas receiving over 2
inches of rainfall by Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Thursday... A few lingering showers remain possible early Thursday
morning behind the frontal passage. Subsidence begins to build
Thursday, drying conditions and returning quiet and cool weather.
Northerly flow will keep daytime highs around 70s for most
locations.

Friday... Midlevel heights turn more zonal across the central U.S
beginning this Friday through the weekend. This pattern supports
quiet and dry weather on Friday with temperatures slowly starting to
build into the mid 70s and continue to climb this weekend. Surface
high pressure keeps chances of precipitation low, and sunny skies
very likely for most areas.

Saturday... Midlevel zonal flow across the midwest continues this
weekend. Chances of precipitation do return to the Upper Great Lakes
region as a low level shortwave tracks eastward. Precip will likely
be weak and unorganized as is transits across the northwoods.
Biggest struggle will be showers overcoming dry low levels. Little
to no precipitation is expected at this time.

Sunday/Next Week`s Outlook.. Zonal flow continues through the
remainder of the forecast period, keeping precipitation low. This
pattern will slowly transition to more of a ridging set-up building
across the majority of the CONUS with strong flow over central
Canada. Chances of precipitation remain pretty low with surface high
pressure slowly building a heat dome by midweek next week. Highs
likely climb to the mid/high 80s by the end of the long term. This
pattern potentially returns an active pattern beyond the long term
as the baroclinic zone to the north creates the classic summer "ring
of fire" across the midwest. Too early to message impacts, but we
will monitor this feature as we approach late July.&&

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Quiet conditions through much of tonight, with decreasing winds
and VFR for most. Could be an area of MVFR CIGs that try to
develop later tonight into early Wednesday for CIU and PLN,
otherwise VFR. Shower and storm chances increase on Wednesday,
especially in the afternoon, (although some -SHRA possible in
the morning) and thus, have VCSH for most locations. Best chance
for -TSRA Wed afternoon will be APN. Winds NW to W, with lake
breeze circulation shifting winds to east at APN. Any TSRA could
have brief gusty winds and torrential rain.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JLD