Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 210641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
241 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

...Increasing chances of rain today...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Slight chance of non-severe

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A complex area of low pressure continues
to develop over the Mid Mississippi Valley early this morning.
Several areas of convection continue to fire ahead of and around the
northern periphery of this system...impacting mainly SE Wisconsin...
Southern Lake Michigan...Indiana and Ohio. Michigan remains
relatively dry for the moment...but do expect this will change
throughout the morning as the surface low center tracks thru
Southern Lower Michigan thru mid afternoon.

Latest near term models continue to gradually back off on POPs
across our CWA with each consecutive run as a result of the surface
low center track shifting slightly further south. Latest track takes
the low center along the Lower Michigan/Indiana border and thru SE
Lower Michigan today...thru SE Ontario this evening and into Quebec
late tonight. Certainly highest POPs will be across our SE CWA
closer to the surface low center and associated lift and deep
moisture. POPs will taper off today from SE to NW across our CWA...
with Eastern Upper Michigan seeing very little in the way of precip
chances today. Instability today will be very limited due to OVC
skies and the beginning of CAA this afternoon and especially tonight
on the backside of the departing low to our south and east. Thus...
expect only a slight chance of thunderstorms today...mainly for our
SE CWA this morning before CAA begins this afternoon.

Temps will be noticeably cooler today with afternoon highs only
warming into the lower 70s. Low temps tonight will cool into the mid
to upper 50s as CAA continues.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Will be at the tail end of small
craft advisory winds Wednesday afternoon. Nothing after that.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Sfc low pressure expected to pass through
SE MI tomorrow will continue to deepen as it lifts through Quebec.
Meanwhile, a broad area of high pressure will move through the Ohio
Valley through the end of the week. This high pressure will bring
quiet weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Upstream, another
shortwave is expected to begin moving across the northern Plains
Wednesday, arriving to the Great Lakes as an occluding front over
the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Really the main concern for this period
is the ending of small craft conditions along Lake Huron zones.
Current SC.Y ends at 21Z, and that continues to look good as winds
may even diminish below criteria before then. Aside from that, the
high pressure passing to our south will bring a quiet couple of
days. Cooler high temps in the low to mid 70s will be in place
Wednesday, with a slow warmup starting on Thursday.

The cool H8 temps that will be overhead Wednesday will be low enough
to support some lake effect cloudiness, and perhaps some showers. As
has been done the past couple days, low end PoPs will be added to
the forecast for Wednesday morning into the evening, when H8 temps
will warm enough to shut down the lake effect.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

High pressure will continue to slide through the Ohio Valley during
the first part of the long term, with the next feature of interest
being an occluding front that looks to arrive sometime Saturday.
Shower activity ahead of the low could start as early as Friday. We
could remain fairly active behind this occluding low as broad
ridging sets up over the southeast CONUS. We could see a few ridge
runners bringing periods of showers and thunder early next week and
through much of the week. Looking beyond Monday, the setup looks
favorable for spell of hot and muggy conditions again.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Rain pushing north into parts of the area late tonight and
Tuesday morning.

Low pressure will cross southern lower MI on Tuesday. Associated
precip will move north into the region, though will tend to weaken
as it does so. Best chance for rain will be in the overnight and
morning hours, especially at MBL/APN. Mainly expect VFR conditions
for this, perhaps MVFR at times. However, as we move thru
Tuesday, cigs will lower to and stay MVFR at all TAF sites in the
afternoon and evening.

Light winds tonight. An increasing north wind Tuesday, gusty at
times in the afternoon and evening.


Issued at 241 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Low pressure will lift NE out of the Mid Mississippi Valley and thru
far Southern Lower Michigan today and then exiting NE thru SE
Ontario and into Quebec tonight. Winds and waves will strengthen to
SCA criteria today thru Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens
on the backside of the departing low. Chances of rain will increase
today across Northern Michigan as deep moisture from this system
surges northward into the Great Lakes region.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LHZ345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LHZ348-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LHZ347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LSZ321.


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