Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211440
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.UPDATE...

Issued at 938 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

The forecast for today remains on track.

Did increase winds a tad after looking at RAP/HRRR soundings for
this afternoon. Other forecast elements were left unchanged.


UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Minimal updates needed this morning. Some high clouds are
lingering across the north and portions of the south. Updated
clouds based on latest satellite trends. Otherwise expect a dry
day with highs in the 70s to perhaps low 80s. Winds may be a touch
breezy out of the northwest through this afternoon, although not
as high as yesterday. Winds then diminish and switch to a
southerly direction tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

High pressure ridge behind an exiting upper level low will bring
mainly dry and warm conditions today. Yesterday`s upper level low
will skirt across the northern part of the state this morning,
perhaps brining some clouds and an isolated shower. Weak ridging
then builds in behind this feature today and brings dry conditions
with warm temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. Breezy northwest
winds may linger through much of the day, especially across
northern and eastern portions. Gusts should be less than
yesterday, although may still approach 30 mph. Dry conditions
should continue for tonight under continued weak ridging. A switch
to southerly flow should bring mild temperatures through the night
in the 40s and perhaps 50s. Smoke and haze from western wildfires
should also be diminished today with lingering northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Overall a warm start to the long term will be interrupted by weak
frontal passages at different times through the weekend. A switch
to southerly flow with westerly flow aloft looks to bring warming
conditions through the day Tuesday. Expect to see temperatures in
the 80s across the region with mainly dry conditions. Weak surface
low across the Dakotas will combine with a weak cold front front
pushing in from the north Tuesday night into the Wednesday. The
result will be some chances for showers. Some elevated instability
could meet fairly strong shear to perhaps bring an isolated
thunderstorm during this same time period. Confidence is low for
stronger storms, although cannot be ruled out at this point. The
remainder of Wednesday then becomes post frontal with cooler
temperatures in the 60s and 70s, and a shift to northerly winds.

Winds become southerly again for Thursday as a surface low in
Canada extends into the region. Warming temperatures look to be
found, with some 80s across the region. Limited precip is expected
during the day, however, a cold front could bring some showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. A broad trough pattern
then follows this front for Friday into the weekend. The result
will be cooler, yet more normal, temperatures and scattered
showers at times. Some breezy winds are possible at times
throughout the long term period. The warmer days may also have
lowering RH values during the long term which could bring some
increased fire danger. Westerly flow aloft could return some haze
from western wildfires during parts of the long term as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Overall VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Some
high level clouds may be found at times, with dry conditions. Some
breezy northwest winds may be found today, before diminishing and
changing to a southerly direction tonight. VFR conditions with a
slight southerly breeze is then expected for Tuesday.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin


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