Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 212241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
541 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Issued at 541 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Latest visible satellite imagery shows a fair weather cumulus
field over central and southern Norther Dakota, slowly diminishing
with time. This will continue through sunset with a clear sky to
follow the rest of the night. Gridded forecast on track with no
updates needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Near seasonal temperatures highlight the short term period.

Currently, northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure over
the Dakotas, resulting in mostly sunny conditions and light winds.
Temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal thanks to the colder air
that moved into the region the other day.

Bumped overnight lows tonight/Wed AM down several degrees below
guidance given the dry air in place and what occurred this
morning where the sky was clear.

Surface high pressure will slowly push south into the Central
Plains tonight into Wednesday, allowing southwesterly return flow
into our region and trending temperatures up closer to normal
highs on Wednesday. Dry weather continues one more day before a
mid level S/WV across southwestern MT approaches and moves through
the Dakotas Wed night - Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Quasi-active pattern highlights the extended period.

Mid level short wave trough/closed low moves into western Montana
Wed night, then across the Northern Plains Thursday/Thursday
night. This feature will bring decent chances for showers and
thunderstorms to western and central ND, especially along and
south of I94. A few stronger storms will be possible, though 0-6km
shear magnitudes not very impressive.

S/WV ridging builds into the region Friday, followed by a
progressive and active flow regime for the weekend before a long
wave trough develops late in the weekend/early next week over
western Canada into the northwestern and north central United
States. Lots of uncertainty but seasonal to below seasonal
temperatures and more widespread chances for precipitation should
result with this pattern change. Small scale features will be
better resolved as we get closer to this period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Vfr cigs/vsbys this taf period. Scattered cumulus through sunset
the SKC. Winds becoming southwest tonight and Wednesday with
sustained winds around 10kt Wednesday afternoon.




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