Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 151123
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0317 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/

Today and Tonight.

With Tropical Storm Humberto several hundred miles to our
southeast and a ridge centered near Memphis, another hot and
largely rain-free day is expected. A zone of weak low-level
convergence and PWAT values around 1.7 inches may support very
isolated shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. A 10
percent PoP was maintained mainly along and south of I-59.
Activity will diminish around sunset with a quiet overnight period
expected.

87/Grantham

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0317 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/

Monday through Saturday.

Our stretch of above average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions under northerly flow aloft will continue for the
majority of the extended forecast as upper level ridging begins
building over the lower Mississippi Valley and Midwest on Monday
through the rest of this period. The airmass will be dry for most
of this week with models only showing PWATs generally ranging from
1 to 1.5 inches each day. Subsidence under strong ridging and
limited rain relief means highs will rise into the upper 90s
Monday through Wednesday. Unfortunately, this will only aggravate
drought conditions across Central AL.

The good news is, a backdoor cold front may work its way westward
into east Central AL late Wednesday night and provide some relief
to the hot temperatures across the area Thursday through
Saturday. High surface pressure initially develops over eastern
Quebec on Tuesday and works its way southward where it reaches the
northeastern coastline by early Thursday morning. Northeasterly
sfc-850mb anticyclonic flow will develop over the Mid-Atlantic
and advect cooler air towards the Deep South. 1000-850mb
thicknesses could lower by 200 to 300 meters Thursday through
Saturday which means highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s are expected on these days.
Not expecting much rain with this scenario as the boundary moves
through overnight Wednesday with little moisture return occurring
before it is through much of the forecast area by sunrise on
Thursday. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm in the
southwest early Thursday afternoon as low- level winds briefly
become southeasterly and weak return flow develops right as the
boundary is exiting to the west, but mainly just expecting lower
temperatures at this point.

86

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours with mainly
light northeasterly winds. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled
out this afternoon but the chances are very low.

87/Grantham


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Any showers and storms should be very isolated this afternoon.
Otherwise, hot and dry conditions will continue. Relative
humidity values around 40 percent can be expected this afternoon,
but lower humidity and hotter conditions should return for Monday
and Tuesday as a drier airmass moves in from the northeast. KBDI
values will remain elevated due to ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  66  97  66  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
Anniston    94  68  97  67  98 /  10   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  95  71  97  70  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  95  71  97  70  98 /  10   0   0   0   0
Calera      94  70  97  68  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
Auburn      91  70  94  69  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  95  72  97  69  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
Troy        93  71  96  68  98 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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