Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 301855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
155 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

...New LONG TERM...

(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2023

Residual low to mid level troughing remains over the area extending
west from the upper low off the coast of North Carolina. Flow aloft
is north-northeasterly with sfc winds set to take on a more easterly
heading this afternoon due to high sfc pressure building southward
along the East Coast. Moisture will slowly trend higher through
tomorrow as PWATs eventually reach the 1.2-1.4 inch range tomorrow
afternoon. With at least improved low-level moisture, we may see
a few isolated showers or a storm across the northeastern portions
of the area this afternoon. However, of the two days, there will
be higher coverage tomorrow with isolated to scattered showers and
storms developing during the afternoon as a wedge front moves in
from the east producing isentropic lift across the area, and as a
mid-level low begins to develop over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Intensity and overall coverage should be limited by dry mid-level
air and associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Expect seasonal
temperatures with mostly sunny skies today, and partly cloudy
skies tomorrow. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s.



(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2023

A few minor adjustments were made to the long-term forecast this
afternoon. Through the end of the week, the forecast will be
highly dependent upon the development and track of the mid-level
closed low in the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a broad upper level
ridge develops to our north over the Great Lakes states, it should
keep the system mostly shunted off to our south. However, some
influence in the form of increased moisture aloft will keep
scattered PoPs in the forecast both on Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. PoPs are still expected to decrease by Friday as drier
air works in aloft from the north and the mid-level low moves
eastward toward Central Florida. 1000-850mb thicknesses will
increase by Friday into the weekend, supporting highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s by Saturday afternoon. Global guidance is
starting to come into better agreement with an eastern CONUS
trough developing by the middle of next week. Before that pattern
begins to evolve, the Central Alabama forecast looks very
summer-like for Monday and Tuesday with isolated showers and
storms during the peak heating of the afternoon and highs staying
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.



(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2023

Sfc winds will gradually become easterly this afternoon as high sfc
pressure builds southward along the Appalachians. Winds will be
lighter today, generally ranging from 4 to 8kts then calm
overnight. Some isolated showers may develop this afternoon near
ANB/ASN, but the airmass remains dry and coverage is expected to
be limited so did not include in the TAF. Expect another period of
VFR conditions with high clouds increasing across the area
tomorrow morning.




Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible
through much of the upcoming week during the afternoon hours. Min
RH values Wednesday afternoon are expected to range from the mid
to upper 40s in the southwest counties to the upper 50s in the
eastern counties. Transport winds will remain out of the east both
on Wednesday and Thursday.


Gadsden     61  83  63  83 /  20  40  10  30
Anniston    63  83  65  84 /  20  40  20  30
Birmingham  64  86  66  85 /  10  40  20  40
Tuscaloosa  64  86  66  87 /  10  30  20  40
Calera      65  84  66  84 /  10  40  20  40
Auburn      65  82  66  81 /  10  40  30  30
Montgomery  64  86  66  84 /   0  30  30  40
Troy        63  86  66  84 /   0  30  30  40




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