Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 260810
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0309 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/
Today through Monday.

The easterly wave that brought showers and thunderstorms to Alabama
on Saturday has now shifted into Mississippi. There will be minimal
forcing mechanisms in place today to trigger any showers or
thunderstorms. The better chances for any storms this afternoon will
be across far west Alabama. An upper level short wave trof passing
through the Great Lakes region will push a cold front into western
Tennessee this evening. A pre-frontal band of showers and storms
will move into northwest Alabama this evening. The activity will
decrease in intensity overnight as the main energy lifts out of the
area and the air mass cools. Mostly scattered showers expected after
midnight along and north of I-20. The surface front will be near the
I-20 corridor by noon Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be
increase in intensity and coverage during the afternoon on Monday,
mainly between I-20 and I-85. After weeks of highs in the middle to
upper 90s, Monday`s highs will be in the middle to upper 80s along
and north of the cold front. Due to the cloud cover and cooler
temperatures on Monday, no severe storms are forecast.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0243 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/
Monday night through Saturday.

Ridging will be centered over the Four Corners to start off
the period, with broad troughing over the Midwest and Northeast
CONUS. A mid/upper-level shear axis will move slowly southeastward
from the Ozarks Monday night to North Alabama by Wednesday,
putting northern and central Alabama generally in the right
entrance region of a jet streak. Heights rise a bit on Wednesday
as a ridge tries to re-establish over the region, but several
convectively generated weaknesses in the ridge will persist
through the end of the period. A cold front will remain stalled
across Central Alabama Monday night through Wednesday, before
lifting back to the northwest as a warm front Wednesday. An axis
of PWATs near 2 inches and enhanced 1000-500mb mean RH values will
be located along/southeast of the front, promoting scattered to
numerous showers and storms southeast of the front each afternoon.
This will keep high temperatures closer to normal values for this
time of year and keep heat indices under control. Fairly saturated
profiles will limit the microburst risk, but localized torrential
downpours will be possible each day.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

The easterly wave that produced sct to numerous showers and tstms
on Saturday across Alabama has shifted westward into Mississippi.
Very limited convection expected on Sunday across Central Alabama
with most of the activity developing across north Alabama after
00z. VFR conds will be the primary flight category with the
exception of some MVFR cigs developing across the south Alabama
between 10z and 13z. The lower cigs will likely impact KMGM/KTOI.
The lower cigs should scatter by 15z. Southeast winds 4-6 kts
will prevail from 14z thru 23z.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values will fall generally into the 40 to 50 percent range this
afternoon, with any thunderstorm activity this afternoon
remaining isolated to widely scattered. Moisture and rain chances
increase tonight through the rest of the upcoming week as a cold
front moves into the area and stalls.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  68  86  63  87 /  20  40  50  10  40
Anniston    92  71  88  67  85 /  20  20  60  20  50
Birmingham  93  72  87  68  89 /  20  30  60  10  40
Tuscaloosa  95  73  88  69  90 /  20  40  60  10  30
Calera      93  73  88  70  87 /  20  20  60  10  40
Auburn      91  72  90  70  84 /  10  10  50  20  60
Montgomery  95  73  94  72  91 /  20  10  50  20  60
Troy        94  72  94  71  90 /  20  10  40  20  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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