750
FXUS64 KBMX 262031
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
331 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

This afternoon.

Highly amplified longwave ridging was over much of the Central
Plains and Midwest with the strongest portion of ridging over
portions of Southeast California and Southwest Arizona along with
Northern Baja California. Longwave positive troughing extended
over much of the Northeast part of the country southwest to over
the Eastern half of the Ohio River Valley Region. A weakness in
the mid levels aloft is persisting over much of the Lower
Mississippi River Valley Region to our west. A stationary front
extended from the Northern Plains southeast across Missouri and
east straddling the Kentucky and Tennessee State Line. Expansive
surface high pressure was centered across the Eastern Great Lakes
Region. RAP 13 km mesoanalysis depicts a diffuse 700 mb low over
North Mississippi and Southwest Tennessee. There are a few
shortwaves over North Mississippi, North Alabama and South South
Tennessee that were supporting showers and some thunderstorms
across these areas. Closer to home, a weak shortwave was analyzed
over Central Alabama that was providing just enough support for a
few light showers that were on radar moving northeast just south
and east of the Birmingham Metro area.

Expect mostly cloudy skies northwest while fair skies will
persist across portions of the south-central and southeast
counties this afternoon. Coastal convection across South
Mississippi and East Louisiana will progress northward through the
afternoon with some of this activity potentially affecting our
southwest counties later this afternoon while some showers and a
few storms will be possible across our northern and western
counties this afternoon as disturbances aloft continue to move
northeast toward our area. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8
mph and high temperatures will range from the low 80s far
northwest to the low 90s south.

Tonight.

The general weakness aloft will persist over the Mid-South and
ArkLaTex region while a few mid-level disturbances continue to
move northeast roughly along the Natchez Trace Parkway extent. The
surface front to our north will slowly drift south, extending
from the Northern Plains southeast into Central Tennessee
overnight. Expansive surface high pressure will migrate east,
becoming centered over Southwest New York State after midnight.

Isolated showers and a few storms will be possible across the
western third of the area tonight with lower chances further to
the east and southeast. Patchy fog is expected to develop across
portions of the northern and eastern counties before sunrise on
Saturday. Winds will become northeast at 2-4 mph with low
temperatures ranging from around 70 across the northeast third of
the area to low and mid 70s southwest.

Saturday.

The mid-level weakness moves further west on Saturday, becoming
positioned over the Arkansas Ozarks. The surface front to our
north advances south into the area during the day Saturday while
more disturbances aloft move northeast over the northwest portion
of the area through the day.

Expect increasing clouds from the west during the day Saturday
with increasing chances for scattered showers and some
thunderstorms initially across the western counties early in the
morning, then expanding eastward through the rest of the day.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across the
west-central counties and multiple rounds of heavy rain impacting
urban and poor drainage areas may result in water ponding. Winds
will become east to southeast at 5-10 mph and high temperatures
will range from the mid 80s far north to the low 90s southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

Latest guidance continues to indicate a change on the horizon in
at least the upper flow. The upper trough is currently situated
from New England SWWD into the Ohio Valley and SWWD back into TX.
A bit of energy breaks off over TX through AR as the main low
pushes E into the N Atlantic tonight into the weekend. On Sun it
looks to open up and become absorbed into the upper flow over the
Upper Midwest by late Sun as the ridge builds over the Gulf of
Mexico. Sun night into Mon, the upper ridge begins to spread WWD
across the SRN US. This will begin to change us over to weak NW
upper flow on Mon. In the lower levels, weak ridging will be
present over the SE US with rain chances going down for the latter
part of the extended. However, lower pops remain at times with
heating and helped with occasional NW upper flow impulses. With
lower pops, we will see slightly warmer highs each day.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

A shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Midwest and
Great Lakes region on Sunday. The base of the trough will pass
across the Tennessee Valley which will suppress the subtropical
ridge over the Gulf Coast while deep moisture remains in place
across the Southeast. This should lead to favorable chances for
numerous to widespread showers and storms during the day on Sunday
and again Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, deep-layer flow will
orient from the west to northwest which should bring some drier
air into the mix as a strong ridge begins to build over the Desert
Southwest. This will be the general pattern through the end of
the week which will result in lower PoPs overall, but there will
be impulses within the northwest flow that will support scattered
afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures
will trend warmer by midweek with highs in the lower to mid 90s.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024

Expect low clouds with spotty showers through mid afternoon
across much of the northern terminals while VFR conditions will
persist at MGM. Mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight with
only isolated shower activity with some patchy fog north and east
before sunrise Saturday morning. Clouds will increase areawide
Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorms
southwest with lower chances across the far northeast.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather elements are not expected to reach critical
thresholds over the next several days. Regional showers and
thunderstorms continue each day, varied in coverage, with high
relative humidity values and light 20 foot winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  80
Anniston    70  87  72  87 /  30  40  30  80
Birmingham  72  87  73  87 /  30  60  40  90
Tuscaloosa  73  90  73  88 /  30  80  40  90
Calera      71  87  73  88 /  20  60  40  90
Auburn      72  89  73  87 /  30  50  30  70
Montgomery  74  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  80
Troy        71  90  72  90 /  30  70  30  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...05