Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 160249
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
849 PM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Not much to say about tonight`s tranquil weather. A weak pressure
gradient, a Col overhead giving us light and variable flow aloft,
and a dry, subsident atmosphere all means clear skies and gentle
sfc winds for the overnight hours. Only minor adjustments to wind
direction and hourly temperatures necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Satellite pictures and observations are still showing little to
cloudiness over the CWA at this time. There is some upper level
cloudiness over Wyoming moving south, but it is dissipating. The
visible pictures show the snow cover melting away in most areas.
There is still some around over Weld, LArimer and Boulder counties
as of 2 PM MDT. Models keep southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA
tonight. On Tuesday the weak trough axis is stretches across the
north and northwestern CWA with southwesterly flow over most of
the CWA and some easterly flow aloft over the northwest corner.
There is benign synoptic scale energy over the forecast area
tonight, with weak upward motion on Tuesday. The low level winds
look to be normal drainage with a mix of downsloping overnight.
normal diurnal patterns will persist on Tuesday. For moisture,
there is very little upstream or on the model cross sections for
tonight and Tuesday. Will go with zero pops both periods. For
temperatures, Tuesday highs should be 3-6 C warmer than this
afternoon`s readings.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Overall, the weather pattern will be rather quiet during the long
term. A positively tilted mid to upper level trough, that is
currently over the desert southwest, will become cut off from the
flow tonight and then will meander northward through Thursday. On
Thursday, this system will become an open wave and will begin
progressing eastward leaving Colorado by Friday. Models are not in
complete agreement on the exact timing of this system as it moves
eastward but with our CWA in the left entrance region of the jet
streak, any precipitation will be very minimal. Storm total snow
amounts will be less than an inch in the central mountains while
it is unlikely the urban corridor and eastern plains receive any
precip from this system.

On Friday, a trough with an arctic airmass will dig into the
eastern half of the U.S. This will shift winds to the north across
the eastern plains but the brunt of the trough and cold air will
be well east of Colorado. The main influence on Colorado`s weather
during this period will be the developing ridge over the Pacific
Northwest. This will leave our CWA dry with near normal to
slightly above normal temperatures through the weekend. Models
differ in the time that this ridge is broken down but it appears a
trough will push onto the west coast by Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 845 PM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

VFR conditions, i.e. clear skies, and light drainage winds are on
tap for the remainder of the night at Denver area air terminals.
Wind speeds should remain under 10 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Baker
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Baker



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