Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 272133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
333 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Convection is developing over the CWA at this time. There is a
decent Denver Cyclone in place over the plains at this time with
the center of circulation just east of the KFTG radar in south
central Adams County. There is a convergence line from central
Adams County south-southwestward into southeastern Douglas county.
Models show a decent upper closed low over Utah overnight and
Monday. It moves into southwestern Wyoming by 00Z late Monday
afternoon. The flow aloft is south-southwesterly tonight and
Monday. There is weak upward vertical velocity on the QG Omega
fields tonight and Monday. The Denver cyclone is progged to
continue in place this evening with southerly winds over the
eastern plains and northerly winds over the foothills and western
plains. Models don`t show normal drainage wind patterns tonight
over the western plains. Easterly and northeasterly winds are
progged on Monday. For moisture, it increases somewhat overnight
and Monday form what we`ve had lately. Some of the models have a
pretty low Stratus deck over most of the plains tonight into early
Monday morning. Dew points are pretty much in the 50s F for the
plains and lower foothills overnight and Monday. There is pretty
decent CAPE progged this evening for the eastern CWA. This is
similar for Monday afternoon with the decent CAPE evening further
west than today. The QPF fields show decent amounts of rainfall
over the northeastern CWA this evening, then less amounts over the
northern half of the CWA overnight. The built of the measurable
rainfall for Monday afternoon is progged over the northwestern CWA
with lesser amounts over the northern border. Will keep decent
pops going well into this evening over the northern CWA and
eastern border areas. The "scattered" pops will cover more area
across the CWA on Monday afternoon. Models show a cold front move
across the CWA this evening and another one late Monday afternoon
into the evening. For temperatures, Monday`s highs are 5-9 C
colder than this afternoon`s highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Tuesday appears to be another fairly active day. The mid level
trough axis will pass across WY during the day. Some drying from
the west some CAPE limited around 500 j/kg from the urban corridor
westward, highest values along the eastern border of 1300-1500
j/kg. Marginal severe storm may still be possible there Tuesday
afternoon/early evening. Generally weak mid level qg ascent over
the cwa on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a little warmer and a litter
drier with a flat mid level ridge over CO. Still some storms
around but not as strong, with lesser coverage across the cwa. For
the rest of the week, temperatures start to climb back up with an
increasing southwesterly flow aloft. The next trough could clip
northwest CO Friday night as it lifts out of the the Great Basin.
Limited moisture with it, so possibly more of a wind issue. Dry
southwesterly flow aloft over Colorado over weekend. A front may
push in from the north Saturday night, which could allow for
better low level moisture along the foothills and Palmer Divide
for thunderstorms for Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Models show southeasterly winds this evening then directions all
over the place overnight. The northerly winds should continue at
DIA for the next few hours considering the location of the Denver
cyclone. Of course, outflow from storms may alter that. Models
have winds all over the place overnight. They will likely move
towards more drainage overnight. Upslope directions are progged
for most of Monday. Ceilings could get into the BKN020-030 range
after 06Z tonight and continue through about 16Z on Monday.
Precipitation chances, including hail, are higher Monday
afternoon than they are this evening at DIA.


Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Relative humidities are very low over Park County right now.
Winds speeds are not very high but as fuels are quite dry so will
keep the Red Flag Warning going into this evening. Cooler
temperatures and increased moisture will keep the extreme fire
weather conditions at bay on Monday.


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ214.



LONG TERM...Cooper
FIRE WEATHER...RJK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.