928
FXUS61 KBOX 141736
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1236 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes to the forecast. Minor snow accumulation possible late
Sunday night into Monday morning. Mild on Tuesday, becoming
unsettled Wednesday through Friday of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with seasonable temperatures Saturday. Cooler temperatures
  for Sunday.

- Snow showers remain possible Sunday night through the
  following morning, minor accumulations and little or no
  impacts.

- Dry and mild on Tuesday, unsettled mid to late week with
  seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with seasonable temperatures Saturday. Cooler
temperatures for Sunday.

A mid-level ridge builds in from the west accompanied by surface
high pressure which will bring dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures for Saturday. Highs range in 30s this weekend with a
spots potentially hitting 40 this afternoon. Saturday night,
temperatures drop into the teens across the interior and 20s
closer to the coast.

Dry conditions continue into Sunday. Model guidance indicates a
front pushing in overnight Saturday into Sunday from offshore
shifting winds N/NNE. This will support a cooler day than Saturday
overall. Cooler air from the coastal waters pushes onshore which may
end up keeping the eastern coastal areas cooler than inland
locations. These coastal areas may potentially struggle to get above
30 degrees while temperatures rise into the low to mid 30s further
west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow showers remain possible Sunday night through
the following morning, minor accumulations and little or no impacts.

Those suffering from snow and/or winter fatigue might be pleased to
know that a significant winter storm from Sunday night into Monday
appears unlikely. Though a period of light snow remains possible,
with limited impacts and accumulations.

Positively tilted trough moves through the four corners region of
the Desert Southwest this morning, before reaching the panhandle of
Texas late this afternoon, developing an area of low pressure over
the Red River Basin. Guidance remains in good consensus, the area of
low pressure associated with the southern-stream shortwave traverses
the deep south, producing locally severe storms, before exiting the
Carolina coast late Sunday evening.

As the low pressure system moves northeast over the ocean it likely
is suppressed by a northern-stream shortwave that is coming out of
the Great Lakes region. Consensus amongst guidances suggests these
two features doesn`t phase together until late Monday and by then
the greatest forcing is offshore. With near normal PWATs, do think
the most likely outcome is a period of snow showers between midnight
and Monday midmorning. Snowfall and impacts are limited and come in
two parts. The first part is associated with the northern-stream
energy with scattered light snow across interior MA. And the second
part is associated with the low pressure system offshore. Those snow
showers should be a bit more uniform, though the greatest moisture
does remain offshore. Again, snow accumulations are low. Perhaps a
few tenths of an inch of snow, with up to half an inch along the
south coast of RI/MA and the islands. The 75th percentile is roughly
1.0" to 1.5" across the islands. There is less than a 25% chance for
totals to exceed. Maintained `slight chance` PoPs across interior
and `chance` PoPs near the south coast.

Temperatures warm Monday afternoon into the upper-30s to low-40s
which will help melt any minor accumulations of snow.

Key Message 3...Dry and mild on Tuesday, unsettled mid to late week
with seasonable temperatures.

Given the prolong cold, it`s hard to believe the climatological high
is around 35F in the interior and 40F for the coastal plain for this
time of year. Continue to anticipate a warming trend for the coming
week, with Tuesday being the warmest day. With increasing mid-level
heights and southwest flow, highs climb into the 40s. Not out of the
question a few areas may reach 50F as winds shift to the southwest.
Seasonable temperatures there after through Thursday. High pressure
moves offshore Tuesday night as a frontal boundary develops across
the region. Weak areas of low pressure ride this boundary and
provide unsettled weather Wednesday to Friday. With marginal
temperatures PType issues are a possibility. This will be something
to monitor over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

15z TAF Update:

Through 00z Sunday: High confidence.

BKN/OVC mainly VFR ceilings, though hovering around lower-
VFR/MVFR bases for BDL and the Berkshires. General west to east
decreasing cloudiness west to east after 20z. WSW/W winds
around 5-10 kt.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. Winds become NW around 5 kt overnight.

Sunday: High confidence.

VFR, with lowering mid/high clouds SW to NE after 18z. NW to N
winds 5 kt or less, which could become light/variable late.

Sunday Night: High confidence overall, though moderate to high
for PVD, Cape and Islands.

Lowering mainly VFR ceilings, with winds becoming N to NE around
5-10 kt with dry weather for most terminals. Possible MVFR
ceilings PVD- Cape airports with light SHSN possible after 08z -
visbys in SHSN could be as low as IFR but think 3-6 SM visbys
are more likely.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR, briefly lowering to MVFR between 12-14z.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Washingtons Birthday through Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with
local MVFR possible.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

A cold front moves across the waters overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning bringing a period of NW wind gusts around 25 kts and choppy
seas across our northern waters. We have issued a small craft
advisory these locations. Light freezing spray is expected too,
mainly across the northern waters. A ridge of high pressure will
keep winds/seas below small craft advisory across the rest of the
waters through the weekend.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/...

Sunday Night through Washingtons Birthday: Winds less than
25 kt. Slight chance of snow showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley/Mensch
AVIATION...Loconto
MARINE...Dooley/Mensch