979
FXUS61 KBOX 230805
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
405 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low finally moves offshore into the Gulf of Maine later
today. Off and on showers today, with winds gradually diminishing
through early afternoon. Temperatures remain on the chilly side
today, but begin to recover for the weekend. Drier weather with
gradually moderating temperatures are on tap for Sunday and
especially Memorial Day when parts of the region may finally see
highs break 70 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Moderate to heavy rain lingers through the morning, but spotty
  showers hang around through the evening.

* Temperatures still cooler today, but begin to recover for the
  weekend as drier weather moves into southern New England.

Coastal low passing over the Cape will lift into the Gulf of
Maine towards sunrise. Still some areas of moderate to heavy
rain through the early morning hours, but should be tapering off
throughout the late morning. Will likely see a secondary round
of showers later on this afternoon/evening as the low moves
further into Maine/New Brunswick. Winds will gradually slow
throughout the day as well, with gusts along the eastern coast
around 15-20mph through midday. Temperatures today will be
slightly more dynamic than yesterday, with highs this afternoon
in the high 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Spotty showers likely linger though the early morning hours
Saturday, but not expecting much accumulation out of it. While
we`ll finally see some dry hours in the late afternoon/evening,
skies remain cloudy. Overnight temps tonight into Saturday
closer to normal... around 45 for the interior and near 50 for
the immediate coast, Cape, and Islands. Saturday highs once
again in the high 50s across the CWA, but a chances the more
urban areas could reach 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Warmer temps and dry weather will mean Memorial Day is
  generally good for outdoor activities.

* Wet weather returns around mid-week but timing details
  uncertain.

High pressure should build over the northern Great Lakes Sunday
into Memorial Day, before finally moving across New England
Tuesday. A low pressure may approach towards Wednesday, but
there is large uncertainty in the track and timing.

The persistent upper low over northern New England finally moves
into the Maritimes Saturday night into Sunday. Thus begins a
stretch of drier weather into early next week. Still some risk
for stray showers during the afternoon hours across interior
southern New England, but dry weather prevails for most
locations Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures continue to slowly rise with each successive day.
It will likely take until Memorial Day before some locations
start to break 70 degrees for high temperatures again.

As we move into Tuesday, dry weather continues with the warmest
day in a while as the high pressure moves overhead. Beyond that,
another trough takes aim at the northeast, increasing rain
chances for mid week, but confidence in timing and details is
low at this point given model uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overall high confidence in trends, but some uncertainty in
timing.

Slow improvement today as rain ends from southwest to northeast,
but MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely to persist.

MVFR and VFR ceilings more likely tonight into Saturday. Areas
of IFR may persist across the higher terrain of the Worcester
Hills and towards the Berkshires.

BOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

BDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday: High confidence.

Peak of the winds have passed. Gale Warnings started to be
replaced with Small Craft Advisories across the southern waters.
Will take a little longer across the eastern MA coastal waters
before those can be converted to advisories as well. Rough seas
continue into Saturday across the outer coastal waters. There
may be a brief lull later tonight, but not thinking it will be
of long enough duration to warrant dropping the advisories
across the outer coastal waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ232.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ233>237.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn