Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221139 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly high clouds moving across the CWA early this morning.
Ceilings were near 6000ft at KHBV. Visibilities were near 5SM with
mist at KHBV. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio
Grande valley today through tonight even as low to mid level
moisture increases across the area ahead of a 500mb low/trough
across the western United States moving eastward.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019/
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): Low to mid level moisture
across the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to move northward
across northeast Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of the 500mb
low/trough across the western United States. The NAM progs 500mb
vorticity across northeast Mexico this morning moving eastward
across south Texas this afternoon. Some elevated convection may
develop with this feature today but rain chances remain low across
the CWA today. As the 500mb low/trough across the western U.S.
moves eastward tonight...showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop well to the north of the area. The NAM and the GFS
continue to prog some elevated convection developing across
northeast Mexico and moving across the southwest portions of deep
south Texas late tonight into Sat morning. Will continue to
mention a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
tonight into Saturday as there is sufficient instability aloft for
convection to develop with additional vorticity moving across
northeast Mexico late tonight into Sat morning. Near normal
temperatures will prevail across the Rio Grande valley this
afternoon and Sat afternoon with mostly cloudy skies across the
area today through Saturday.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): The main axis of the
H5 trough will be moving to the northeast by Saturday evening,
with ridging beginning to build west of the region. This will
shift winds aloft from the northwest, finally helping a cold front
through the region Monday evening. While most of the midlevel
energy will be well to the east, there may be enough surface
forcing with the front to spark a few showers as the front passes
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will warm ahead
of the front on Monday, reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Temperatures will only moderate slightly behind the front for
Tuesday and Wednesday, only retreating to around 80 degrees.

Today through Saturday: Seas were near 2 feet with south to
southeast winds near 10 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light
to moderate southeast winds will prevail across the coastal
waters today with low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies and
high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate southeast winds
will prevail across the lower Texas coast tonight into Saturday
with a Pacific cold front moving through northwest Texas Sat

Sunday through Tuesday: Southeast winds will continue Sunday and
Monday but gradient between ridging to the east and lo pressure
passing to the north will be modest at best. This will keep winds
only around 10 knots into early next week. A weak cold front moves
into the area Monday night, with winds shifting to the northeast
around 10 knots. The lighter wind regime through the period will
keep swells from increasing considerably, keeping them generally
2 to 3 feet through the middle of next week.



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