Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181946
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
246 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night): Low to mid level
moisture will remain limited across deep south Texas tonight
through Thurs night as the 500mb subtropical ridge across the
southwest United States extending into south Texas continues to
provide strong subsidence across the area. Hot and dry conditions
will persist across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands
Thursday with no rain chances expected tonight through Thurs
night. Will continue with persistence for temperatures tonight
through Thurs night. Heat index values will likely reach 105 to
110 degrees across the eastern portions of the CWA Thurs
afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The initial four corners
mid level ridging and northwest Gulf high pressure will continue
into the long term. The center of the ridge may shift slightly
east going into the weekend, to the Texas Panhandle, and the
overall ridge will extend into the northwest Gulf. This pattern
will block any significant weather systems from being able to
affect the local area. A mid level low will drop slowly south out
of the Midwest over the weekend, ending up over the north Central
Gulf Coast early in the week, supporting increased convection
there. Some of the marine convection may begin to develop or move
farther south along the Texas coast early to mid next week as
deeper mid level troughing develops over the Midwest and the
local ridge retreats slightly. In the mean time, look for
afternoon heat index values to range between 105 to 110 degrees,
with isolated brief, slightly higher values. Daily high
temperatures will trend slightly higher than normal, but more so
out west where they could be a few degrees above normal. This is
helping to push the heat index values higher. Heat advisory
conditions are not definite right now, but chances are rising for
the possibility on any given afternoon.

&&

.MARINE:
Tonight through Thursday night: Seas were near 1 foot with
southwest winds near 4 knots at buoy002 and near 2 feet with south
winds near 12 knots at buoy019. Moderate to strong south winds
will prevail across the coastal waters tonight as surface low
pressure across the Texas panhandle and surface high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico provide a relatively strong pressure
gradient across the lower Texas coast tonight. Will continue to
word SCEC for the Laguna Madre this evening and SCEC for the
offshore waters tonight. Will likely need SCEC wording for the
Laguna Madre Thurs afternoon through Thurs evening and for the
offshore waters Thurs afternoon through Thurs evening as moderate
to strong southeast winds develop across the coastal waters.
Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will prevail across
the lower Texas coast Thursday through Thurs night.

Friday through Monday night: High pressure will remain in control
resulting in light to moderate southeast to south winds and low
to moderate seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  96  81  94 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          79  97  79  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            77 101  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79 102  80 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      76 106  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  92  82  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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