Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 142052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
252 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Much more tranquil
conditions expected in the short term as the H5 ridge builds back
across the central US. Wind still reaching 25g40kts across the
area currently, underneath the strong llvl nwly jet. This jet
departs to the northeast this evening, taking the strongest winds
with it. The surface ridge starts to move in tonight, bringing
winds down to 5 to 10 knots. Dry air sfc and aloft will bring a
very clear night, so CAA and radiational cooling will let temps
fall to near 40 degrees areawide. The ridge remains in place
tomorrow, so temperatures will only recover into the upper 60s to
near 70, similar to today`s temperatures. Humidity values will
again fall below 25 percent, but much calmer wind conditions will
alleviate fire weather concerns. Another night of radiational
cooling lets temps fall to near 40 again Saturday night.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): Used a model blend for an
initially benign scenario where weather conditions will be mostly
seasonal and relatively uneventful. High pressure will be in control
over the weekend, along with dry air. The weather will start out
cool Sunday morning, with low temperatures in the 40s, but will
become near average by afternoon, with high temperatures in the
lower 70s. Temperatures the rest of the forecast will be close to

A shortwave trough over Baja California early on will shunt over
north Texas on Monday. A second West Coast trough will propagate
toward the region Monday through Wednesday as strong ridging builds
over the West Coast. Ahead of the ridge and under the trough, a
modest cold front will push into the area late Wednesday, with
reinforcing air Thursday morning as the trough exits to the east
and ridging builds in from the west. By Thursday afternoon dry air
will be over the area with clearing skies. Chamber of Commerce
weather on Friday.


Now through Saturday night: Gale Warning remains in effect for
the open Gulf waters through at least 6PM. Gusts have continued to
reach around 35 knots, but have been slowly trending downward.
Seas peaked at 10 feet, and have been hovering around 9 feet
offshore through the day. Small Craft Advisories will replace the
Gale once it expires, as winds will still be above 20 knots
through at least dawn Saturday before finally reaching better
speeds. High pressure moving toward the NW Gulf will keep winds
down tomorrow, but still from the north. Swells will continue to
decrease, falling below 5 feet by noon. The center of the high
will be in the vicinity Saturday night, so winds will become light
and variable most of the night.

Sunday through Wednesday night...Not expecting more than light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas through Wednesday as high
pressure influences the flow. A shift to slightly stronger north
winds and building wave heights will occur Wednesday evening as a
cold front pushes south across the lower texas coast.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  44  68  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          43  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            42  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              43  71  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      40  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   50  67  52  67 /   0   0   0   0


TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ248>257-351-

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ248>257-351-353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 6 PM CST this evening for

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-170-175.



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