Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 152309 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
509 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Light
and variable winds expected near sunset this evening continuing
through Sunday. A weak seabreeze may shift winds east mid to
late Sunday afternoon at BRO and HRL, remaining generally less
than 10 knots.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): The H5 ridge just to the
west will keep the region in dry NWly flow through the rest of the
weekend. At the surface, high pressure will settle across the
eastern half of Texas tonight, with winds decreasing to near calm.
High pressure will remain in the region through the remainder of
the day Sunday, keeping winds light and variable. The high
pressure will keep skies clear through tomorrow night, with lows
tonight near 40 and highs tomorrow in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Used a model blend for a
fairly benign long term scenario where the weather conditions will
be mostly seasonal and relatively uneventful. Temperatures through
much of the forecast will be close to average, in the upper 40s to
lower 50s for lows, and upper 60s to lower or mid 70s for high
temperatures. Temps will take a hit of a few degrees on Friday after
the arrival of the new air mass, but will rebound quickly on Sat.

A short wave trough over Baja California on Sunday will shunt over
north Texas on Monday with little local impact. A second West Coast
trough will propagate toward the region Monday through Tuesday as
strong ridging builds over the West Coast. The trough will shear out
on Wednesday as it elongates from north to south over east Texas and
south into Mexico. Ahead of the ridge and under the trough, a weak
cold front will push into the area late Wednesday. A slight chance
of rain will develop over the marine areas Tuesday into Wednesday,
with a brief slight chance over land near the coast on Wednesday
ahead of the weak front and the upper trough. It will be a brief
window however, as once the tough axis clears the area late Wed,
drier air downstream of the upper ridge will make an aggressive
entrance, shutting down any rain chances. Chamber of Commerce
weather will occur on Friday as high pressure transits overhead,
moving quickly east into the Gulf, allowing a moderate south
southeast flow to set up on Saturday.

Now through Sunday night: Light northerly winds will dominate the
northwest Gulf through the next 36 hours as high pressure builds
into the region. This will allow seas to decline below 3 feet by
sunrise tomorrow, and remain minimal through tomorrow night.

Monday through Thursday night...Not expecting more than light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas through Wednesday as high
pressure influences the flow. A shift to slightly stronger northwest
to north winds and building seas will occur Wednesday night as a
cold front pushes south across the lower Texas coast. Small craft
should exercise caution conditions to low end small craft advisory
conditions will develop on the Gulf waters Thursday and Thursday
night behind the front.




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