Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 240346
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
846 PM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

.UPDATE...

Snow has been a little more efficient late this afternoon and
early evening. An area of low level convergence and some fairly
steep low-level lapse rates that were 7 to 8 degrees resulted in
snowfall amounts being around an inch to an inch and half higher
than the previous guidance had. The radar returns are starting to
decrease across the central zones as the instability is decreasing
behind the front. Additional accumulations from Billings and
Livingston will generally be an inch or less. The frontogenesis
is still expected to get hung up along the foothills over the next
few hours, and will continue to produce decent accumulations.

As for temperatures overnight, single digit temperatures are
already starting to work into northern Montana. So have not made
any changes to the lows from the previous forecast. Reimer

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Winter Storm Warnings are in place for the Beartooth Mountains as
well as the foothills. Livingston to Hardin southward have Winter
Weather Advisories.

Snow has begun to increase across the area and will continue into
the overnight hours. The snow may taper off in the late afternoon
with the passage of a cold front before the downslope winds off
the Bull Mountain to our north allow the snow to redevelop.
Frontogenesis looks to increase near Billings which bring a chance
for heavier snow around 6pm before it begins to move southward
towards Red Lodge, decreasing the snowfall in Billings. The
highest snow amounts appear to be around the foothills with 6 to
10 inches possible. Amounts have been increased to 3 to 4 inches
around Billings. Areas from Harlowton to Roundup will receive an
inch or less. Precip will taper off tonight fron the north as the
shortwave exits.

Temperatures will begin to drop with the passage of the Canadian
cold front in early evening. Temperatures overnight will drop to
the single digits but depending on the cloud cover, that may have
to be lowered to near zero or below zero values. For now, it
appears that the clouds are going to stay in our CWA until the
early morning hours, keeping the area with above zero temps.

Thursday will become drier before the next clipper moves through
the area on Friday. Gap winds are going to be the main concern
with gusts increasing to 40-50 mph, which would be less than what
an advisory requires. Temperatures will range from the teens in
the east to the mid 30`s in the west.

The next clipper moves through quickly bringing another chance of
light snow to the area. This system will bring less than an inch
to the CWA with the mountains receiving 2 to 4 inches.
Temperatures will be in the mid 30`s for most of the area. Lows
will dip down to the high 20`s. Carrothers


.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...


Models are in good agreement today for the extended period. An
unstable northwest flow aloft will continue over the forecast
area. High pressure ridging and rising heights will build over the
forecast area Saturday, although the ridge axis will remain over
the Pacific northwest resulting in a northwest flow aloft
continuing. A disturbance will move across the western Dakotas on
Saturday and this will bring a chance for snow showers from about
Rosebud County east and southeast. The best chances for
accumulating snow will be Sunday afternoon into Monday as a strong
cold front moves across the forecast area. Models continue to
show temperatures in the upper 40s for the weekend, but given the
widespread deep snow cover, temperatures should stay in the upper
30s to lower 40s before much colder temperatures arrive Monday.
Several inches of snow accumulation will be likely with this
system. Drier conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with
temperatures below normal with highs in the 20s. Hooley

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR conditions will gradually improve overnight from N to S.
The mountains will be mostly obscured. Areas of mountain
obscuration will persist on Thursday and Thu. evening. Conditions
will be mainly VFR across the area. Arthur
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 008/029 023/037 027/042 033/042 021/028 014/028 016/032
    90/B    14/J    41/N    16/O    63/S    11/N    23/S
LVM 015/033 024/037 024/041 029/042 017/027 011/031 017/035
    91/N    15/W    20/N    06/O    63/S    01/N    22/S
HDN 003/029 019/037 023/041 031/042 018/028 010/027 012/030
    90/B    15/J    41/E    16/O    63/S    21/B    23/S
MLS 901/020 015/031 023/037 031/039 017/023 007/021 006/022
    50/B    13/J    32/W    15/O    63/S    11/B    22/S
4BQ 000/023 017/032 024/038 033/042 018/025 008/022 012/025
    60/B    23/J    42/W    35/O    64/S    21/E    23/S
BHK 904/016 009/027 021/036 029/039 010/022 002/021 008/020
    30/U    34/J    33/W    45/O    63/S    32/S    23/S
SHR 006/027 018/035 021/041 027/044 015/025 007/027 015/031
    91/B    13/J    31/E    15/R    74/S    21/B    22/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon MST Thursday FOR
      ZONES 34-35-38>41-57-58-63>65.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until noon MST Thursday FOR
      ZONES 56-66-67.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon MST Thursday FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$

weather.gov/billings


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