Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 201416
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1016 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area today into this evening.
Strong low pressure will track north of the area Friday. An
associated cold front will move through Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:15 AM Update...Some light echoes are showing up on radar and
light rain is being report in Presque Isle. Low, capped
boundary layer instability is resulted in some spotty showers
and drizzle over central and northern areas so added that to the
forecast through midday.

Previous Discussion...
Stratus very stubborn to dissipate, with only a few breaks in
the overcast showing up in the pre-dawn hours mainly in the
Bangor region. Look for mostly cloudy skies today with a very
slow clearing trend. Seasonably cool with upper 50s to mid 60s
and light winds.

Expect clouds finally breaking up this evening with partly
cloudy skies. Temperatures should fall nicely in any breaks in
the clouds. Very localized frost is possible across mainly the
north and northeast, but not enough to issue any hazards. Could
see patchy lowland radiation fog also where any clearing occurs
thanks to the light winds and high pressure. Late tonight, the
short-lived high pressure moves off to our east and we see
thickening higher clouds ahead of the next system. Any rain
should hold off until Friday. See section below for more on the
upcoming storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A strong area of low pressure will pass to our northwest across
Quebec on Friday while high pressure remains east of New
England. This will result in a rather strong pressure gradient
with gusty south winds. The 925MB-850MB layer winds are progged
increase to 45 to 50 knots, especially across the northern half
of the area Friday afternoon, and even increase a bit just
ahead of the cold front Friday night. Model soundings are
showing the stronger winds aloft remaining above the frontal
inversion through Friday evening. Current indications are that
gust potential maxes out at around 45 knots, or perhaps as high
as 50 knots over the higher terrain. As such, decision was made
to transition the current High Wind Watch to a Wind Advisory
starting Friday afternoon. The Wind Advisory may need to be
extended further south into downeast Friday night, as winds are
expected to increase there just ahead of the cold front.

A few showers are possible, mainly across the northern zones on
Friday, otherwise expect mainly cloudy skies on Friday. The
chance for showers increases Friday evening and overnight Friday
just ahead and along the approaching cold front. There is some
elevated instability expected just ahead of the front Friday
evening, so the mention of a chance for a thunderstorm was
maintained. Another concern is the potential for some of the
stronger winds aloft to mix down with any convective activity,
thus will continue to reference gusty winds in any
thunderstorms Friday evening. Considering the very strong
westerly flow aloft just above the frontal inversion, couldn`t
rule out a few damaging wind gusts in any convective elements
along the front Friday night. Later shifts may need to beef up
the gusty winds wording in any thunderstorms with the front
Friday night.

The cold front is expected to cross northern areas around
midnight Friday and then push off the coast by daybreak
Saturday. Any lingering showers or thunderstorms are expected
to end with the passage of the front. However, gusty northwest
winds are expected in the wake of the front Saturday morning.
Therefore, the Wind Advisory was extended into Saturday
morning. Otherwise, expect diminishing winds Saturday afternoon
along with increasing sunshine as a large ridge of high
pressure builds across. Saturday night will be mainly clear and
cold. Lows will range from the mid 30s north to low to mid 40s
downeast. Frost not looking like a big concern Saturday night as
there may be enough mixing to keep the atmosphere from
decoupling.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fair and unseasonably cool weather is expected Sunday through
Tuesday. A widespread frost is possible regionwide Sunday night
and early Monday morning as large Canadian high pressure settles
across the region. The next chance for showers will come by mid
week along with somewhat milder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Cloudy everywhere but with variable cloud bases from
a few hundred feet to 6000 feet. Struggling to get a good handle
on exactly what`s going on, as the 6000 foot cloud layer is
obscuring the clouds underneath on satellite. Generally,
expecting a very slow rise in cloud levels through the day, with
most places VFR by midday.

For late this afternoon and this evening, may begin to see some
clearing. However, could see patchy fog tonight in the areas
that do clear. But generally, looking for VFR conditions
tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR much of Friday. Gusty south winds are expected
to develop Friday afternoon in advance of an approaching cold
front. A few showers are possible across the far north Friday
morning. LLWS may be a concern as well. Otherwise expect a
better chance for showers along with the chance for a
thunderstorm with the passage of the front Friday night with
possible brief MVFR possible. The front is expected to reach
the KFVE terminal around 06z Saturday and progress southeast
reaching KBHB by 12z Saturday. Northwest winds will be gusty at
times Saturday morning in the wake of the front then diminish
Saturday afternoon. VFR is then expected Saturday night through
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A decent NE breeze 15 to 20 knots with seas to 4
feet early this morning...just below small craft levels. Expect
winds and seas to subside today into this evening as high
pressure briefly builds in before the upcoming strong weather
system.

SHORT TERM: Have issued a Gale Watch for later Friday afternoon
and into Saturday morning. Expect gusty southwest winds to
develop in advance of an approaching cold front later Friday and
Friday night with the potential for gusts as high as 45 knots.
Expect winds to become northwest in the wake of the cold front
Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 to 9 feet Friday night
into Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     MEZ001>006.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Foisy/MCB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Foisy/Duda
Marine...Foisy/Duda



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