Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 182310
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 PM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the eastern Maritimes will continue to move
slowly to the northeast overnight and Wednesday as high
pressure from the upper Great Lakes begins to move east. The
high will crest over the region Wednesday night and then move
east on Thursday. Low pressure from the southern Appalachians
will begin to approach the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clouds cover and wind are preventing the temps from falling
much. Raised temps this evening a few degrees and also raised
lows a couple degrees. Added scattered flurries with reports of
light snow showers and some echoes on radar showing up.

Patchy blowing snow will continue to be an issue at times into this
evening, but with winds expected to gradually diminish later
tonight have discontinued the winter weather advisory. High
pressure will gradually slide east overnight and then move to
the east of the mid-atlantic coast region later Wednesday
afternoon. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the north
tonight and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies downeast.
Northwest winds will likely remain strong enough overnight to
preclude much in the way of radiational cooling. But it will
still be a very cold night with lows ranging from zero to 10
above across the north and 10 to 15 downeast.

Wednesday will not be nearly as windy as high pressure slides to
our south. Expect mainly sunny skies across the region. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees below normal for
this time of year, with low to mid 20s north and upper 20s to
lower 30s downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Wed eve will begin clr to ptly cldy, but warm advcn alf will
result in increasing cld cvr later Wed ngt into Thu morn, which
will likely keep ovrngt lows from being as cold as they would if
skies were to be mclr. Thu and Thu ngt looks to be ptly to msly
cldy and milder with lgt return SE winds, with llvl ST cld cvr
possibly advcg ahead of the next system from the Srn Aplchns
for Fri.

Longer range models cont to advertise another major low pres
system to affect our FA Fri thru Sat. unlike the last system,
this low will track W of Our FA into the St Lawrence rvr vly of
QB, allowing much milder, moist, maritime air to overtake all of
the FA, but spcly ovr the SE two thirds. There will likely be
enough llvl cold air for precip to begin as a brief pd of
FZRA at the onset Fri morn into erly Fri aftn msly ovr Nrn and
Cntrl ptns of the FA. Any ice accumulation will be less than a
tenth of an inch, with greatest impacts ovr untreated roadways.
As temps cont to rise with an increasing ESE wind later Fri
morn thru aftn, any FZRA should quickly transition to all rn
even across the far N by mid aftn. The consensus of model fcstd
6 hrly QPF indicates the best hvy rn potential ovr the SE hlf of
the FA Fri aftn, likely lasting into the eve hrs before dry
slotting hi alf shuts down deep moisture late Fri ngt into Sat
morn. Aft getting well abv fzra by erly Fri eve, temps ovrngt
look to cont to rise msly ovr Downeast, E Cntrl and NE ptns of
the FA, possibly reach as hi as 50 deg F, with near steady
temps of lower 40s ovr the NW. Although winds will increase
from the SE Fri aftn into Fri ngt, sfc dewpoint temps rising sig
abv fzra ovr the existing sn pack will likely result in at
least patchy fog later Fri aftn into Sat morn.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front front will cross the FA by later Sat aftn and erly
Sat eve with some additional rnfl. Behind the cold front, xpct
rn shwrs to end as sct sn shwrs late Sat ngt, spcly across the N
as colder air alg with an upper lvl trof moves back ovr the Rgn
from the W. After very mild hi temps on Sat, lows Sat ngt will
be sig colder Sat ngt than Fri ngt, but still mild for this tm
of season. Sun and Mon look to be ptly to msly cldy with near
seasonal temps with msly clr skies and slightly colder hi temps
for Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ceilings will persist at the northern terminals
this evening before ceilings scatter out later tonight. VFR
conditions are then expected to continue on Wednesday. Gusty
northwest winds will continue into the first half of the night
with some patchy blowing snow possible at the northern terminals
this evening. Northwest winds will diminish on Wednesday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: All sites will begin VFR erly Wed eve, with
Nrn TAF sites possibly lowering to low MVFR later Wed ngt into
Thu as a ST deck slowly moves E from QB. Clgs will then lower
to MVFR and then IFR late Thu ngt into Fri as precip moves into
the area from the SW. IFR/LIFR conditions will likely cont late
Fri aftn thru Sat morn mainly in rn and patchy fog with
conditions improving to MVFR Sat aftn. Downeast sites will
improve to VFR Sat ngt and cont so thru Sun while Nrn sites
remain MVFR with SC clgs and ocnl vsbys with rs/an shwrs then
recover to VFR on Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale warning remains in effect into this evening before
winds gradually subside to SCA levels late tonight. SCA
conditions may persist into Wednesday before subsiding below
during the afternoon.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns are needed for Wed ngt til about
Fri morn. The next chc of marine hdlns will be late Fri through
the weekend with a sig sfc low pres system xpctd to track into
the St lawrence vly of QB from the southern Appalachians. The
best potential of gale force winds will be late Fri into Fri
ngt, with a SE wind fetch potentially resulting in large wvs by
Sat. Winds and seas will remain at SCA for the remainder of the
weekend. Kept with a blend of WW3/NWPS for fcst wv hts this
update.

We will need to watch storm surge potential with astronomical
high tides in addition to possible wv run-up for our prone
coastal lctns Fri ngt and Sat. Cannot rule out coastal flood
advs.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/MCB
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/VJN
Marine...Duda/VJN



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