351
FXUS61 KCAR 160625
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area today into tonight. A
cold front will cross the region Thursday into Friday. High
pressure returns on Saturday. Another front approaches from the
north on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will control the weather today. This will mean
mostly sunny skies for most places today. Cannot totally rule
out an isolated shower or thunderstorm north of Katahdin late
this afternoon due to instability. However, these will be few
and far between. Patchy fog will be possible Downeast early this
morning. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will make for hazy skies,
mainly from around Dover-Foxcroft-Lincoln-Topsfield northward.

Otherwise, the main story today will be hot and humid
conditions. Most places outside of Coastal Downeast will see
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew point temperatures near
Bangor and over Interior Downeast will be in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. This will produce heat index temperatures in
the lower to mid 90s. However, heat indexes at or above 95
degrees appears to short in duration and isolated in coverage to
warrant heat advisories at this time. Southerly flow will keep
Coastal Downeast cooler. South-facing shorelines and outer
islands will see highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Lower to mid 80s
elsewhere in Coastal Downeast, with the warmest highs north of
Route 1.

Dry weather prevails tonight as high pressure retreats eastward
and a cold front remains well northwest of Maine. It will be a
mild night, with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland. Coastal
Downeast will see upper 50s to lower 60s thanks to cooler water
temperatures in the Gulf of Maine. Patchy fog is likely for
Bangor and Downeast late tonight with light southerly flow.

The aforementioned cold front approaches from the northwest
Thursday as the parent low pressure system tracks through the
St. Lawrence Valley. This will set off showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon from about Greenville-Millinocket-Danforth
northward. Models show PWAT values approaching 2 inches, so
heavy downpours are possible with any thunderstorms. Isolated
flash flooding could occur in places where heavier downpours
persist. In addition, ample CAPE and increasing lapse rates
could allow for some storms to grow strong or severe. The main
threat from any of these thunderstorms will be gusty winds.
Large hail is less likely due to high PWATs and warm air aloft.

Cannot rule out some showers or thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
south of the Greenville-Millinocket-Danforth line. However,
onshore flow will likely limit the threat in these areas,
especially Downeast. High temperatures Thursday will still be in
the 80s inland, with 60s and 70s for Coastal Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will sweep through the area Thursday night through
Friday morning, carrying the bulk of all remaining rain east and
exiting the forecast area. For Thursday night, some lingering
ingredients may remain in favor of nocturnal storms, such as
lingering CAPE in any areas which did not receive thunderstorms
through the day on Thursday, as well as elevated moisture levels
with PWATs above the 90th percentile climatologically for the
day, and the source of lift from the FROPA. Any storms which
linger into the overnight will only do so for the first few
hours, settling back down to scattered rain showers by around
midnight.

For the day on Friday behind the front, dewpoints will quickly
drop as a drier air mass moves into the forecast area. This will
lead to not only drier weather but clearing skies. Behind the
cold front, high temperatures on Friday may only lift into the
70s for most of the forecast area. Friday night will remain
mostly clear and cooler than previously due to the lower
dewpoints, and min temperatures Friday night may fall into the
low to mid 50s throughout the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the forecast area into
the day on Saturday, maintaining the dry pattern, clear skies,
and allowing for max temperatures to lift to around 80
throughout the region. This fair weather pattern will continue
Saturday night into the day on Sunday.

For Sunday, the next front will approach from the northwest and
slowly sag into the area. There is still some uncertainty in the
timing of this front, but the general trend from run to run
across all deterministic models is that of a slowing trend, with
precip starting later in the day on Sunday into Sunday night.
That said, there is the potential the front could be more
moisture starved with fewer rain showers, or more robust with a
stronger threat for storms. Behind this front, high pressure is
likely to build into the region to begin the next work week,
with a lower chance for any rain showers Monday into the day on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR...Mainly VFR today and tonight. Brief MVFR possible
before 12z with HZ and BR, but confidence is too low to include
in TAFs. Low confidence in VCSH and isolated -TSRA 20z-00z.

Variable conditions Thursday with increasing threat of SHRA and
TS. +TSRA possible Thursday PM. S-SW winds 5-10 kts today
through Thursday. Gusts to 20 kts possible this PM. Higher gusts
possible in TSRA Thursday PM.

KPQI...IFR/LIFR through 10-11z with BCFG and HZ. Then mainly VFR
today and tonight. Variable conditions Thursday with increasing
threat of SHRA and TS. +TSRA possible Thursday PM. S-SW winds
5-10 kts today through Thursday. Gusts to 20 kts possible this
PM. Higher gusts possible in TSRA Thursday PM.

KHUL...MVFR/IFR through 11-12z with BR and HZ. Then mainly VFR
today and tonight. Variable conditions Thursday with increasing
threat of SHRA and TS. +TSRA possible Thursday PM. S-SW winds
5-10 kts today through Thursday. Gusts to 20 kts possible this
PM. Higher gusts possible in TSRA Thursday PM.

KBGR...Period of IFR/LIFR possible 09-12z with BCFG. Otherwise,
VFR today through this evening. IFR/LIFR possible late tonight
into early Thursday AM with BCFG. Mainly VFR Thursday, with PM
MVFR possible in VCSH and isolated TSRA. S-SW winds 5-10 kts
today through Thursday. Gusts to 20 kts possible this PM and
Thursday PM.

KBHB...VFR deteriorating to IFR/LIFR 07-08z with BCFG.
Improving to VFR after 14z. IFR/LIFR likely again later tonight
into Thursday AM with BCFG. Mainly VFR Thursday PM. VCSH and
isolated TS possible Thursday PM, but low confidence. S-SW winds 5-10 kts
today through Thursday. Gusts to 20 kts possible this PM and
Thursday PM.


SHORT TERM:
Thurs night: MVFR/IFR over most terminals, with FG possible
along with lingering rain showers. Overnight thunderstorms
possible at northern terminals. Light S winds may begin to
shift NW late at FVE/far northern terminals behind frontal
passage. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri: MVFR/IFR early, quickly lifting to VFR and SKC behind
frontal passage from north to south. Winds shifting NW 5 to 15
kts with gusts to 20 kts. LLWS possible ahead of the front.

Fri night-Sat: VFR. Winds light and variable.

Sun: Generally VFR, though decreasing trend to MVFR possible
from north to south as rain showers may move in. W to SW winds 5
to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria today, tonight, and Thursday. Fog will reduce
visibility to 1NM to 3NM at times through Thursday. Visibility
as low as 0.25NM possible this morning. Isolated thunderstorm
possible on the waters by Thursday evening.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below small craft
advisory criteria through the end of the week and into this
weekend. Fog may reduce visibility over the waters Thursday
night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Clark/AStrauser
Marine...Clark/AStrauser