Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 240847
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
347 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area through tonight. Low
pressure will cross north of the region later Sunday into
Sunday night. High pressure will then build back in through mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Northwest flow can be expected today as high pressure builds
east from central Canada. Mainly cloudy skies this morning will
give way to partly to mainly sunny skies this afternoon. High
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s north and mid
to upper 40s down east. High pressure will build to our north
tonight with mainly clear skies followed by increasing high
clouds late. This will result in some radiational cooling
potential across the north tonight as high clouds will not reach
there until toward daybreak Sunday. Thus have leaned a bit
colder for lows across the far north for tonight where lows will
generally range from 5 below to 5 above zero. Elsewhere, across
central and down east, lows will range from the low to mid teens
as thicker cloud cover will reach this area earlier in the
night, limiting much in the way of any radiational cooling
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
After a fair and chilly start to the day, model guidance has
been consistent with the idea of another warm occlusion system
apchg the Rgn from the W later Sun and crossing the area Sun
ngt. The primary low tracks well N of our Rgn while the triple
point low tracks sig S of the Rgn. Deep layer moisture ahead of
the occluded front between these two lows will result in a
rapid increase in cldnss late Mon morn into aftn, with sn
breaking out by mid aftn. This deep moisture band, however, will
quickly move out of the Rgn by late eve, limiting snfl
potential spcly ovr Ern ptns of the Rgn where the band will have
weakened traversing from Wrn ptns of the FA.

Persistent supercooled low cldnss in the immediate wake of the
occluded front will likely bring intermittent fzdz to the Rgn
inland of the Downeast coast later Sun ngt into erly Mon morn
with abv fzg temps resulting in drizzle alg the immediate coast.
Low clds and fzdz/dz will dissipate later Mon morn with skies
becoming prtly to msly sunny Mon aftn, with sig abv fzg, mild
hi temps. Fair and mild conditions will cont Mon ngt.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A developing blocking pattern is xpctd ovr NE Can durg the long
term, with s/wvs from upper midwest/great lks/S Cntrl Can movg
ESE, msly S or affecting the Srn periphery of the FA. Max PoP
chcs have been kept in the slgt to low chc range for now durg
this tm frame with this update given the potential of at or
below normal precip, until we get better model confirmation of a
more coherent event worthy of higher PoPs as we get closer to
this pd. With little on the way of arctic air available, both hi
and low temps will be milder than seasonal norms during the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions as a result of ceilings will
eventually give way to VFR later this morning, with VFR then
continuing tonight. Northwest winds today will give way to light
north winds tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially VFR all TAF sites into erly aftn,
then lowering to IFR in sn Sun aftn and eve, with a rn/sn mix
possible Downeast sites. Cont`d IFR in sn Sun eve across Nrn TAF
sites, transitioning to lgt fzdz ovrngt Sun while Downeast sites
xprnc sn, rn, and possible fzdz. All sites become VFR again Mon
morn and cont so thru Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect for the outer
coastal waters though this afternoon. Winds/seas should subside
below sca levels tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and seas will increase back to SCA
conditions Sun aftn into Sun ngt ahead of and with the passage
of low pres S of the waters. Winds and seas will then gradually
subside below SCA thresholds on Mon and cont below SCA Tue and
Wed. Kept close to a blend of WW3 and NWPS wv guidance for these
ptns of the fcst.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/VJN
Marine...Duda/VJN



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