Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 211336
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
936 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain overhead Monday. Hurricane Teddy will
pass east of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. Weak high
pressure follows for Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the
region later Thursday. High pressure will build in Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 am update...
No major chgs needed to grids with the morning update as temps
and dwpts look to be on track for tda. Full sun is bing dimmed
just a tad by a very thin layer of smoke but not enuf to have an
impact on temps expected to rise into the 60s over entire FA
this aftn. Hv lowered temp rise slightly acrs the northwest
where mins were able to dip into the lwr 20s.

Previous Discussion...
Another sun-filled day on tap as high pressure resides over the
region. The anomalous high sits atop the CFSR 1979-2009
climatology for this time of year across New England. Winds will
remain light and variable through the evening hours, becoming
out of the north later tonight. Frost/freeze conditions will be
less widespread tonight as winds increase and some weak WAA
works its way in ahead of a regime change into Tues morning as
the high begins to fold.

Focus for today will be the sea state given long period swell
ahead of Teddy. As wave heights increase in combination with
high tide cycles, and swell, the outer coast line will become
hazardous through mid-week. While tall rock outcrops seem safe
from the waters below, surging breakers that impact the rocks
can soar, crashing on top of onlookers. View from afar, and
never turn your back on this ocean state.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Have used a blended model approach for Teddy as there`s still
some model differences. The net result was up to 3 quarters of
an inch of needed rain for southeastern Washington County, but
no more than a few hundredths an inch further east. Anticipate a
sharp cutoff. The northeast winds in the Downeast area could
hit over 40 mph late Tuesday afternoon and evening and will
probably result in some power outages since leaves remain on the
trees. The winds spread across the entire area on Wednesday
with gusts over 35 mph. Once again, some power outages could
result. Wednesday will be a much milder day with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Besides the needed rainfall in
Washington County and strong winds, the two biggest effects of
Teddy appear to the coastal and fire threats outlined below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect mild and dry conditions through the period with
increasing temperatures for the weekend and an approaching front
later Sunday into Monday. Highs for next weekend will be in the
low 70s...and could be one of the nicer weekends left for this
year. The subtle features in the long range include a dry cold
front Thursday that will lift back northward as warm front
Friday night. A more southerly flow may generate coastal low
clouds and upslope fog Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. Some patchy valley fog is possible early this
morning at PQI or HUL. Light and variable winds, becoming north
overnight.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Strong
NE winds are expected later Tuesday and Tuesday night...mostly
for BGR, BHB and coastal sites. Gusts may reach 40 mph and LLWS
is possible Tuesday night.  On Wednesday, all sites will have
strong northwest winds gusting over 35 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA continues through Monday night for wave heights 4
to 6 ft. Additionally, long period swell of 16 seconds is
sporadically being observed by buoys in the Gulf of Maine. This
was most consistent south of our coastal waters this evening,
but has now been detected by the Eastern Maine Shelf buoy. Winds
will become calm this evening before increasing ahead of a large
wind field associated with Teddy.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night. Wind gusts to 45 kts are possible, especially
over the eastern waters. Long period swell will build to as high
as 18 feet Tuesday night. Gale conditions could linger further
into Wednesday morning and an SCA will be needed at the
conclusion of gale conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions continue today with light winds. Winds increase
Tuesday, but the strongest winds will be in combination with
greater cloud cover, lower temperatures and the highest chances
of rain in the Downeast region. Wednesday looks like the day
with the greatest risk as skies clear, temperatures recover
towards 70F, relative humidity drops towards 40 percent and
northwest winds gust in excess of 35 mph. Washington County may
not have high risk due to precipitation from Teddy, but rainfall
amounts from Teddy to the north and east will be little to none.
Therefore, fuels could be receptive.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The high tide on Tuesday around 319PM looks most problematic as
long period swell with a period of 15 seconds will be pounding
the coast. While total water levels aren`t a problem, overwash
and erosion will be issues and an advisory will likely be
needed. The powerful long period seas should have ample strength
to push large rocks on roads such as Seawall on MDI. Perhaps
more importantly, the combination of long period swell and
offshore winds during that afternoon high tide could put
spectators at significant risk at popular spots such as Thunder
Hole in Acadia National Park.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Cornwell/Farrar
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Cornwell/Farrar/MCW
Marine...Cornwell/Farrar/MCW
Fire Weather...MCW
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Cornwell/MCW


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