Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 180601
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
101 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain situated between high pressure and a
coastal trough into early next week. A cold front is expected
to move through the region by mid week, followed by high
pressure through mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Radar sh owing a few very light showers from the Atlantic that
will periodically move onshore of coastal Georgia through the
rest of the night, driven by subtle isentropic upglide in
response to a weak inverted coastal trough. Elsewhere we expect
nothing more than some jet induced cirrus and a steady increase
in stratocumulus from off the Atlantic to occur over parts of
southeast Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Temps will not be
anywhere near as cold as the past two nights, with lows lower
40s far inland, 45-50F further east, and mid or upper 50s right
along the coast. As the cloud cover increases late, temps in
some places of Georgia and coastal South Carolina will begin to
climb a few degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday through Monday: Pooling of lower tropospheric moisture
in the vicinity of a coastal trough will support isolated/scattered
showers, especially east of I-95, Sunday into Monday morning.
Then, any showers should push offshore Monday afternoon as drier
air begins to spread into the area from the W/NW. High temps
will average in the upper 60s north to lower 70s south both
days.

Sunday night: Low temp/dewpoint spreads and light winds could
support some fog, although cloud cover could limit fog potential.
Otherwise, low temps will range from the upper 40s inland to
mid/upper 50s on the beaches.

Monday night and Tuesday: A weak, dry cold front will push through
the region, and building high pressure will continue to usher drier
air into the area. Dewpoints will decrease somewhat, but another
night of low temperatures in the mid/upper 40s inland/50s at the
coast will give way to another day of highs in the mid/upper 60s
north and lower 70s south Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A likely dry surface cold front looks to cross the forecast area
late Tuesday or very early Wednesday, followed by additional high
pressure which should persist into late next week. Model divergence
increases by the end of the week. Onshore flow and increasing
moisture levels will set the stage and a developing coastal trough
or possible surface low could provide the forcing for precipitation
production heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS: VFR, with maybe a few light showers Sunday night.

KSAV: Marine stratocumulus will impact the terminal through 06Z
Monday with the proximity to a nearby coastal trough. For now
we have VFR ceilings around 3500-5000 ft, with maybe some risk
for MVFR ceilings at times. Since there will be only isolated
to scattered showers at or near the terminal during Sunday and
Sunday, VCSH is shown after 13Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief periods of flight restrictions will
be possible Sunday night into Monday morning due to the potential
for showers and perhaps even low clouds/fog. Otherwise, VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds will gradually increase overnight as a coastal
trough takes shape. Seas will also rise slightly during the
overnight. On average winds will be at or below 15 kt with seas
at or below 3 or 4 ft.

Sunday through Thursday night: Winds and seas are expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through midweek. Then,
a tightening northeast pressure gradient could translate to SCA
winds/seas by Thursday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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