Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 222341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

The short-term forecast will remain chilly, with some light chances
of a rain/snow mix this afternoon and evening. The culprit is a cold
front that is currently moving through the Northland. The cold air
advection behind the front has led to increasing clouds this
afternoon, reaching as far south as Price county in Wisconsin, per
the GOES-16 visible satellite imagery. A tight surface pressure
gradient and some pretty impressive boundary layer mixing due to the
cold air advection has allowed stronger winds to reach the surface,
with some gusts up to 35 mph measured near Hibbing this afternoon.
Chances of light rain showers this afternoon will transition to snow
showers this evening, over the Minnesota Arrowhead region in the
wake of the cold front. Overnight, the mid-level shortwave
associated with the cold front will shift eastward, which will bring
the better synoptic scale forcing with it. This will put an end to
the shower activity after midnight. Very little, if any, snow
accumulation is anticipated.

High pressure will then build across the region on Tuesday. Partly
to mostly cloudy skies will linger in the northwesterly cold air
advection flow. However, skies will begin to clear from the
southwest as drier air filters in. The surface pressure gradient
decreases for Tuesday, so winds won`t be as strong as they were
today. Some of the high resolution models are indicating some lake-
effect snow streaming off Lake Superior, mainly over the higher
elevations of Iron county in northern Wisconsin. Very light
precipitation amounts are expected in this area. High temperatures
Tuesday will range from the middle 30s over the Arrowhead to the
lower 40s over east-central Minnesota.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Dry weather will continue through Wednesday as high pressure builds
over the region. Flow aloft will switch from northwesterly to
westerly/southwesterly which will advect warm air in. Skies will be
mostly clear Tuesday evening through early Wednesday. Nudged down
low temperatures a few degrees as skies will be clear with light
winds, so it should be a good night for radiational cooling. Lows
will generally be in the 20s. Skies will be mostly sunny on
Wednesday with increasing cloud cover late across the Brainerd Lakes
Region. Highs will be in the 40s.

High pressure will slide into the Central Great Lakes Wednesday
evening into Thursday while a shortwave lifts across the Northern
Plains. This will lift a warm front across Minnesota and Wisconsin
gradually spreading precipitation in from southwest to northeast.
Thermal profiles between the GFS/ECMWF/NAM suggest that there will
be a brief period Thursday morning where a mix of rain/freezing rain
and sleet is possible across the Iron Range and the I-35 corridor.
Any wintry precipitation will quickly become all rain by mid to late
Thursday morning as temperatures climb. Cloudy skies and light
precipitation will linger on Friday as the front stalls over Ontario
down to eastern Upper Michigan.

The wet pattern at the end of the week will persist heading into and
through the weekend. An elongated vort max will dig from Alberta
Friday morning into the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains by early
Saturday. This will shift flow aloft to a northwesterly direction
and advect cold air in. This will bring chances of rain showers
during the day and rain/snow mix overnight on Saturday and Sunday.
Highs Thursday through Sunday will generally be in the 40s. Lows
will be in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

A shortwave will exit the region this evening and high pressure
will move east over the Northland on Tuesday. Low VFR or MVFR
ceilings will occur across northern Minnesota into far northern
Wisconsin tonight but will gradually diminish on Tuesday as the
high builds in. There may be a few showers through late evening as
well. The gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening and be
at or less than 10 knots on Tuesday for most areas as the
gradient weakens further with high pressure moving in.


DLH  30  40  27  44 /  10   0   0   0
INL  28  38  24  46 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  28  43  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  31  42  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  34  42  28  44 /   0   0   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ146>148.



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