Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 172334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
634 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Today has been another relatively quiet day with the surface ridge
overhead, and little more than a field of cumulus scattered across
the sky. This field of cumulus is expected to diminish this
evening, leaving us with a nearly clear sky overnight. With the
ridge remaining overhead, it will be another good radiational
cooling night, with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Wednesday is our last warm dry, mostly sunny day for the week, as
the ridge slides off to our east and allows an upper level low to
move close enough to affect the area beginning Wednesday night.
With the southerly return flow setting up and mostly sunny skies
temperatures should continue the warming trend and rise into the
upper 70s to low 80s for highs. Clouds will be on the increase
during the afternoon in the Brainerd Lakes region, and there may
be some afternoon cumulus elsewhere, but otherwise there should be
mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

A period of rain Thursday into Friday then dry with near normal
temperatures through the weekend.

On the synoptic scale a slow-moving mid-level shortwave trough
tracks across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Wednesday
into Thursday at the left entrance region of an 80 knot jet streak
entering the central Great Plains. This will result in a deepening
surface response, with the slow-moving nature allowing for a stacked
low to develop, centered over central Minnesota by Thursday evening.
This low then weakens and tracks east-southeast towards the Ohio
River Valley over the weekend. In its wake a mid-level ridge builds
in with a surface high building in response over the Upper Midwest
into northwest Ontario Saturday into Sunday. Early next week a cold
front approaches from the west associated with a low developing in
southern Canada.

Rain will begin from west to east Thursday afternoon associated with
the approaching low pressure system. Instability will be fairly
limited ahead of the low with just a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE at
most. Best chance for storms will be Thursday afternoon ahead of the
low, otherwise the thermal profiles will be relatively stable with
only a low chance for a rumble of thunder. Rain ends Friday, but
northeast flow, low level moisture, and surface heating may lead to
a shower across northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin Saturday
afternoon, especially across the north shore. Otherwise decreasing
clouds Saturday and sunny Sunday.

Temperatures will be near to at times below normal through the long
term period. Highs will be coolest on Friday as the low moves off to
the east and east winds at low levels result in highs in the 60s
along the Lake Superior shoreline, low to mid 70s inland. Otherwise
highs in the mid 70s to near 80 through the weekend.

Increasing chance for precipitation early next week associated with
an approaching cold front. Showers with a few storms possible, but
precise timing remains a bit uncertain - rain could arrive as early
as Sunday night or as late as Monday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High pressure will bring mostly clear skies and VFR conditions to
the Northland throughout the period. The exception will be some
localized fog that could develop overnight. The fog could briefly
reduce CIG`s and VSBY`s into the MVFR and IFR range in spots.


DLH  53  80  59  70 /   0   0  10  50
INL  49  82  60  77 /   0   0   0  50
BRD  54  81  63  71 /   0   0  30  70
HYR  49  81  59  75 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  50  81  57  75 /   0   0   0  40




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