Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXUS66 KEKA 181129
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
429 AM PDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Coastal stratus has returned to the area this morning.
This will continue through much of the week with some afternoon
clearing expected. Inland temperatures will start on a warming
trend that will continue through the weekend with temperatures
reaching the mid 90s to 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper level low continues to move off to the
east of the area and high pressure is building towards the west
coast. Stratus is in place along the entire coast this morning,
although it doesn`t extend all that far inland and the marine
layer is only around 2,000 feet deep. This should help skies to
clear back close to the coast this afternoon, but the immediate
coast may see clouds persist in some areas. The warming trend
starts today with highs climbing into the 80s across the interior
areas. Winds will be fairly light at the coast. Tuesday will see
similar conditions as high pressure builds in, although
temperatures over the inland areas will warm into the upper 80s
and low 90s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday models are showing a shortwave
trough approaching the area. This may deepen the marine layer
slightly and bring some drizzle to the coast. Inland areas may
cool a degree or two. There is also the potential for showers and
thunderstorms over the interior, but the southwest flow is
generally not favorable for thunderstorms in this area. Current
model soundings show a modest cap in the mid levels that may prove
difficult to overcast of 6/18 at 11z, IFR ceilings have developed
at coastal terminals thanks to a broad shield of marine stratus
clouds. Present trends indicate that ceilings are holding
relatively steady, with minimal visibility reductions due to fog
as of yet. However, it remains possible that at least temporary
LIFR conditions for either or both ceilings and visibilities will
develop within the next couple of hours and persist through
perhaps mid morning. Confidence is low. Ceilings will likely rise
back to IFR by late morning, but total clearing is uncertain at
the terminals themselves. If clouds to clear at either terminal
today, they will likely remain very nearby across the ocean
waters, and may periodically impact the terminals through the day
anyway. Stratus will very quickly move back onshore late in the
afternoon/early evening, and IFR ceilings will remain through
tomorrow night. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at UKI,
although much like yesterday a brief period of low clouds will be
possible for a few hours early Monday morning. me. Mid level lapse
rates are around 6c/km and models keep most of the QPF to the
north and east of the area. Still this will need to be watched as
it gets closer.

Thursday through saturday high pressure continues to build over
the area. Temperatures in the inland areas may warm to over 100 in
some of the valleys. The marine layer is expected to become
fairly shallow and eventually almost nonexistent Friday night
into Saturday the flow becomes more offshore. The coast could see
mainly clear skies and temperatures warming to near 70. Gusty
north winds are expected at the coast which may limit the warming
somewhat. Sunday the ridge axis pushes to the east of the area and
stratus may return. Inland temperatures may cool a degree or two,
although the coastal areas will see more cooling. Monday an upper
level trough will bring additional cooling and temperatures may
drop to the low 90s in the inland areas. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...As of 6/18 at 11z, IFR ceilings have developed at
coastal terminals thanks to a broad shield of marine stratus clouds.
Present trends indicate that ceilings are holding relatively steady,
with minimal visibility reductions due to fog as of yet. However, it
remains possible that at least temporary LIFR conditions for either
or both ceilings and visibilities will develop within the next
couple of hours and persist through perhaps mid morning. Confidence
is low. Ceilings will likely rise back to IFR by late morning, but
total clearing is uncertain at the terminals themselves. If clouds
to clear at either terminal today, they will likely remain very
nearby across the ocean waters, and may periodically impact the
terminals through the day anyway. Stratus will very quickly move
back onshore late in the afternoon/early evening, and IFR ceilings
will remain through tomorrow night. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at UKI, although much like yesterday a brief period of low
clouds will be possible for a few hours early Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Generally light southerly winds remain across the
waters early this morning, and seas continue to gradually subside.
Winds will very slowly transition from southerly to northerly
during the day today, and complete this transition by late
evening. North winds will very slowly increase between Tuesday and
Thursday, but aside from perhaps some gusts near 20 to 25 kt
around Cape Mendocino, wind speeds should remain light to
moderately breezy during this time period across most of the
waters. Seas will be generally subdued to perhaps moderately
elevated at times during this time frame as well, with a mix of
small westerly and southerly long period swells, and generally
small but steep northerly wind waves. Largest seas and strongest
winds will occur south of Cape Mendocino.

North winds will increase substantially Friday and beyond, with Gale
Force winds highly likely to occur at various points over the
weekend. /BRC

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.