Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 182113

National Weather Service Eureka CA
213 PM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather through Monday night. Active weather will
return on Tuesday and will persist through rest of the week.


.DISCUSSION...After another chilly start to the day, another
precipitation free day was in store for most of NW California
today. Highs were generally in the mid 50s across the area, with
cooler conditions found over Trinity County. High clouds moved into
the area during the day, so most areas were seeing high overcast
skies with a few peeks of sunshine. It will be another cool night
across the area, but not as cold as last night. Have issued Frost
Advisory for eastern half of Mendocino County. Colder conditions
will be found in NE Mendocino County, where a Freeze Warning is in
effect for overnight tonight. Trinity County will be even colder,
however, the growing season hasn`t started there yet.

It will be another dry day across the area on Monday, with
slightly warmer temperatures during the day. Do expect highs in
the mid to upper 50s across the area, cooler in Trinity County.

All good things will come to an end, however. The wet weather is
expected to return on Tuesday. A weather front will make landfall
along the California coast on Tuesday, bringing in precipitation
to the area. With persistent SW flow, do expect precipitation to
continue through Thursday. There will be a threat of stronger
south wind on Wednesday as the weather front approaches the area,
and enhanced precipitation to the area on Wednesday night.

Models are hinting on another system moving into the area from
the northwest right after that. This will mean cooler conditions,
lowering snow levels, and continuing precipitation from Friday
into the upcoming weekend.

Forecast confidence is below average for the week`s active
weather. This system is a cutoff low south of a upper level ridge.
This system may interact with shortwave disturbance moving south
along the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. The timing
and intensity of the system still needs to be fine tuned in future
model runs.


.AVIATION...High, thin cirrus preceding a storm system offshore
moved over northern California today with VFR conditions prevailing
through most of the day. Expect VFR conditions to persist tonight,
with periodic MVFR ceilings possible across some interior valleys
late tonight. /KML


.MARINE...Quiet marine conditions persisted today with generally
light winds and a subsiding northwest swell. The sea state will
continue to subside into Monday falling to as low as 3 to 4 ft
through early Tuesday. Conditions will then begin to deteriorate as
a storm system brings increasing southeast winds late Tuesday
afternoon, first across the southern waters and then the northern
waters by Wednesday morning. Gale force winds may be possible on
Wednesday, however, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in how
strong winds will be. This will depend on the storm track. A more
northern track could result in widespread gales but a storm track
farther to the south will still bring gusty winds but not nearly as
strong. That said, confidence is low at this time in gales
developing but we should have a better idea as models begin to
converge the next day or so. The storm track will also determine
exactly how big the wind-driven waves will become. Confidence is low
in this as well, but we can say with better confidence that a large
swell will impact the coastal waters bringing combined seas near 12
to 13 ft late in the work week. /KML


CA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ110-113.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ111.



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