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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211453
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

FOrecast is on track for the near term periods with winds
increasing in the northern RRV and most locations remaining
clear. There is an area of mid level clouds that develops in our
south extending over the southern RRV and adjustments were made to
reflect that. This too should transition eastward trailing upper
low in Manitoba.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

A seasonally warm morning ongoing with temps in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Winds gusting to 30mph already in the Devils Lake basin
just a precursor for the rest of the day along and north of the
hwy 2 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Concerns and impacts for the short term will revolve around upper
low lifting NE across Manitoba today. With unidirectional
westerly flow clearing out the smokey skies and bringing in drier
air to the area we should see mostly sunny skies with areas along
the international border dealing with some afternoon high based
CU. Winds strongest along and north of Hwy 2 where bufkit
soundings indicate mixing developing quickly this morning while
wind speeds near 30 kts exist. As the day goes on dry adiabatic
mixing increases to near 800mb though wind gusts will remain near
30kts with stronger wind field lifting northeast with the SFC low
during the day. With the lack of smoke and clouds limiting full
solar and favorable downslope winds afternoon temps will climb
into the upper 70s and low 80s in the valley with slightly lower
values in Devils Lake basin and MN lakes and trees.

Winds will decouple quickly with sunset with a weak ridge of high
pressure moving across the northern plains overnight. Upper 40s
and low 50s expected by Tuesday morning before another day of full
solar and waa/thermal ridge axis brings temps into the 80s for
much of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

A progressive patter is expected through the period with a system
crossing the area for Wednesday...and indications for a cooler
weekend.

Upper ridge is in place to start the period as surface low pressure
develops over the High Plains and works its way east toward the
Great Lakes. There is a chance for showers on Wednesday as the
system moves through...though moisture will be limited. A slight
cooling will occur behind the system before the upper ridge
rebounds again. With this pattern...expect above normal temperatures.

For Friday night into Saturday...models indicate another system
crossing the region. Some showers are possible again with the
system...but the upper trof digs in a little more. Thus...expecting
cooler temperatures with values dipping closer to normal. The
cooling trend will continue through the end of the period...with
occasional chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Westerly winds the primary concern today with SKC or FEW 9000ft
CU possible. Gusts 20 to 30kts are expected to quickly develop
this morning and persist into the early evening then with
decoupling winds will quickly go light and variable for the
overnight period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...JK