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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191720
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Fog has not been expanding east into the Devils Lake region as
previously expected, so updated the forecast to match these
current conditions. No other changes needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Just have some thin cirrus moving across the FA early this
morning. Once again, temperatures are staying pretty mild,
compared to what they have been lately. Seeing some fog trying to
creep into the far western FA, so will mention patchy fog there
through the early morning hours. Otherwise expect quite a bit sun
again today. Have gone on the higher side of guidance for high
temperatures today, which means there may be a stray 60 degree
reading somewhere. Increasing clouds tonight should help limit fog
formation, so did not mention any at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A quiet weather pattern expected through the end of the week and to
start next with highs reaching into the 50s on Friday warming into
the 60s and possibly a 70 or two this weekend. 500mb flow brings a
strengthening shortwave across the Northern Rockies into the Plains
Tuesday. With it clouds and cooler temps along with rain chances
move into the area. Highs will be lower with the 50s for the middle
of the week. The rain may even mix with some snow early Tuesday. EC
and GEFS ensembles show that the most likely rainfall amounts across
the FA range from a tenth to a third of an inch with a low chance up
to an inch, as one member of GEFS suite remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period for most
terminals across eastern ND and northwest MN. Fog/stratus may
develop once again across central ND, and could spread towards
KDVL. Confidence was too low to decrease vis/cigs at KDVL below
VFR at this time based on favored region of fog being further
west. Light south-southwest winds during the day and variable
winds at night are expected to continue.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Snow melt is contributing to response/rises to Red River and
tributaries, with minor ice jams at a few river points. Minor
flooding (or less) is currently favored across the southern half
of the valley, but there is some concern further north (mainly
Oslo) where ice in river may lead to higher rises as tributaries
empty into the main channel. Moderate flood stage at Oslo is
currently forecast by Saturday evening, and this will need to be
monitored as ice conditions could change (hopefully for the
better). Luckily, with significant precipitation not expected over
the next seven days any major flooding from rapid runoff is
not expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJR
HYDROLOGY...DJR