Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1259 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

No further changes. 70 degree temps showing up in the northern RRV
at 18z.

UPDATE Issued at 1010 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Winds turning southwest ahead of next front will help warm things
up with highest temps this aftn in northeastern ND and the
northern/central RRV where warmer 850/950 mb temps will mix down
better. Look for highs around 70/low 70s in this area with mid-
upper 60s elsewhere.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Today is the warm day! Most will see temperatures into the 60s
today although latest guidance has indicated efficient mixing this
afternoon allowing some to break 70 degrees. Best chances for
seeing 70 or higher are within the Red River Valley and northeast
North Dakota. Shallow yet efficient mixing will transfer breezy
southwesterly winds between 20-25 mph to the surface during the
daytime. Ample sunshine is again expected today save some passing
higher clouds in the south late this afternoon. While some light
echoes on radar may appear towards the southern Valley into west-
central Minnesota early this evening, dry air near the surface
should prevent any rain from reaching the ground.

A cold front begins to enter the CWA from the northwest tonight
shifting winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. Temperatures
overnight are expected to decrease into the lower to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018


Gusty winds are expected Friday into Saturday. While rain and
snow chances are forecast late Friday into early Saturday, mostly
dry conditions dominate the majority of the forecast period.
This weekend into early next week will be cool before trending
closer to normal temperatures mid next week.

Friday - Saturday:

Friday will be windy behind the cold front within a strong cold
air advection regime. Northwest winds are expected to gust around
35-45 mph, possibly higher, which could warrant wind headlines for
the day. High temperatures will remain within the 50s on Friday.
A reinforcing cold front drops in from the north late Friday
bringing the chance of rain changing to snow showers overnight
into early Saturday. Better precipitation chances reside within
Minnesota before ending north to south Saturday morning. Some snow
showers could be briefly intense given their expected convective
nature allowing for the chance of light accumulation. This second
surge of colder air will also keep northwest winds gusty through
the overnight into Saturday morning before easing later in the
day. This combines with return of chilly temperatures into the
30s to make for brisk conditions overnight Friday into early
Saturday. Saturday will be dry as high pressure moves into the
area while remaining cool with highs in the 30s to 40s.

Sunday - Thursday:

Sunday will begin chilly with lows in the 20s as high pressure still
influences the region under clearing skies. A couple of glancing,
dry cold frontal passages are expected Sunday and Monday keeping cooler
temperatures and breezy winds in the forecast. Northwest flow
aloft then backs more westerly as an upper ridge is progged to
lean into the area towards mid next week. This will moderate
temperatures back towards normal, ie lows in the 30s and highs in
the 50s, increase winds out of the south, and possibly bring some
chance for light precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

VFR thru the pd with few clouds. Issue Friday will be wind shift
early Friday and winds increasing to 12-22 kt sustained and gusts
to 30-35 kts.




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