Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 182333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

There are a couple of concerns in the short term. 1. Precipitation
potential this evening and overnight. 2. Temperatures Friday.

An upper disturbance is approaching the area from the west,
bringing a trough through the region tomorrow. Ahead of this
disturbance, showers have developed and are moving northeast
across northwest Kansas and into southwest Nebraska. This shower
activity is expected to spread northeastward across much of south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Guidance is not doing
well with this current shower activity, so extrapolating and
blending with guidance this evening with low chances of off and on
showers. Shower activity is most likely before midnight, exiting
to the east during the overnight hours. Breezy winds will subside
after sunset with overnight lows mid to upper 40s.

As with much of the week preceding today, temperatures today were
not forecast high enough, increased temps earlier today a few
degrees and tried to follow suit tomorrow as well. The front
associated with the disturbance will move through during the
morning hours Friday causing the winds to become northwesterly and
breezy. Mixing with the winds, increased highs to the low 70s
across much of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

The weekend will be quiet with surface high pressure sliding
southeast over the Missouri Valley. Winds will become southerly
again by Saturday evening. Temperatures for the weekend around
normal(low 60s). Cooler Saturday than Sunday as return flow is
back on Sunday. A weak front will move through Sunday night, but
it is more of a wind shift than airmass change.

The first part of the work week is also quiet as weak ridging
builds in ahead of another system moving in from the southwest.
Highs again will be around the 60 degree mark...which is just
about normal for this time of year.

The next chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the system to the southwest approaches the area.
The medium range guidance is in better agreement on timing with
this system, so it will be something to watch as the next weather


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

The potential for a few showers will continue to linger around the
area this evening and for at least a few hours after midnight,
with the chances eventually pushing east of the terminal sites.
Models continue to show lowering ceilings, kept things VFR, but do
have a SCT020 mention in there. Skies are expected to clear by
late morning. Winds will continue to be south-southwesterly this
evening, turning more westerly as we approach sunrise tomorrow,
then northwesterly thanks to a frontal boundary sweeping through
the area. Gusty winds look to return tomorrow afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...ADP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.