Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
600 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Thunderstorms last evening and into the first part of the night
produced a swath of very large hail of golf ball up to baseball
size around the Litchfield, Hazard, Pleasanton and Gibbon areas.
Thunderstorms persisted a couple of hours after midnight in our
eastern zones, then quieted down as the storms migrated into
eastern Neb.

In the wake of the storms, the weather calms down for most areas,
with the exception of our southern zones where new convective
development is possible today. The weather pattern features
northwest flow aloft with ridging in the desert southwest building
north, while a closed mid/upper trough translates southeast to
southern MN. One of the changes made to the forecast today is the
addition for thunderstorm chances earlier in the day for our
southern zones. Models are coming into better agreement for at
least small chances for new storm development as early as this
morning as a surface boundary gradually sags south across southern
Nebraska into Kansas. Timing of this favors mid morning into the
afternoon based on the CAMS, but will be dependent upon the
boundary position. The SPC Day 1 outlook depicts a marginal risk
for severe weather for portions of north central Kansas and this
looks reasonable in our continued high shear environment combined
with good moisture/instability in northern Kansas, with hail/wind
the primary storm hazards.

Confidence in whether or not we will see any overnight storms has
lessened as models are not as pronounced with the isentropic
lift/warm air advection. Overall models have trended drier overnight
and while this has been a flip/flop with off/on chances for light
precip tonight, there is just not a strong enough signal to leave in
chances. If anything, models suggest timing of development could be
closer to Friday with a subtle shortwave passage, but with models
just showing signs of this recently, would like to see some
consistency before adding any chances for rain Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

A building upper ridge axis from the desert southwest northward
across the plains should keep our region primarily dry Friday
through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances return intermittently to the
forecast Sunday night through Wednesday as the upper ridge breaks
down and retrogrades as strong upper low moves inland from the
Pacific Northwest and tracks across the Canadian provinces.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

VFR conditions are forecast for the terminals with minimal cloud
cover and fairly light winds.




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