Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
324 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Currently, rain showers are scattered across western Nebraska and
Kansas. This is in response to an upper trough slowly moving
southward into the area. This trough is expected to continue
deepen and cut off as it moves into central Nebraska. This should
bring a fairly widespread area of light rain shower into the
area...arriving from west to east through the day today.

The NAM does have up to 100j/kg of MUCAPE for parts of the area
this afternoon, so a rumble of thunder or two isn`t totally out
of the question. That said, I don`t believe that the probability
is high enough to warrant inclusion in the forecast at this

As drier air advects in from the west this evening, we could
actually see a bit of a "lull" in precipitation...especially over
western parts of the forecast area. I expect that we will see
another uptick late tonight as the center of the low continues
into central Nebraska and lift increases. The PoP forecast depicts
this trend to some extent, but the uncertainty on timing makes it
somewhat difficult to fully capture it.

Rain chances linger through most of Wednesday morning and
possibly into the early afternoon in some places before the low
move sufficiently far south to dry us out. As a result, high
temperatures on Wednesday have trended downward by a few degrees.

Skies should mostly clear by Wednesday night, allowing low
temperatures to drop into the mid-upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The region remains in northwesterly flow aloft into Thursday, and
another quick-moving wave will pivot around the deep upper low
centered over northern Canada. This will push a cold front through
the are and bring us a quick shot of very light rain showers.
Models indicate that northwesterly winds behind this front will be
stronger than with the previous system...likely gusting to 35+
MPH during the day on Thursday.

Spring makes a triumphant return Friday into the weekend, though.
An amplified ridge will move over the central plains as we remain
sandwiched between deep troughs over the eastern and Western
CONUS. Highs in the 70s and even 80s are expected Saturday/Sunday.
The only downside is that south winds will be quite breezy over
the weekend...especially on Sunday.

The western trough begins to break down Sunday and Monday, but
GFS/ECMWF continue to disagree on timing. Nevertheless, the
warmer southwesterly flow pattern could easily give us enough
instability for a round or two of thunderstorms Sunday night into
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Currently, there is a line of showers across western Nebraska,
slowly moving eastward. Short-term models indicate that this
activity should dissipate before reaching EAR and GRI.

Expect areas of rain and MVFR ceilings to redevelop during the
morning hours of Tuesday. I pushed back the start time just a bit
to match short-term trends.

The GFS has been consistently indicating a lull in precipitation
late this afternoon into the evening, before another band of
precipitation arrives from the north later Tuesday night. I tried
to reflect this trend in the TAF, but timing is tough to nail down
at this point.




SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.