Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 230011
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
611 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Needed to make a quick decision on what to do with the portion of
the Winter Wx Advy that was set to expire at 6 PM. Since that band
on radar contains some of the heaviest snowfall rates we`ve seen
today...decided to extend the Advy until 10 PM. EAR has reported
1/2 mi which translates to a snowfall rate of 1"/hr.

The 18Z NAM Nest seems to be depicting this band best...and
keeping it going through the next 2-4 hrs as it moves ESE. If it`s
correct...we should see a weakening/diminishing trend...but this
band could deposit up to a quick inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Snow continues to affect the CWA this afternoon, some of it being
moderate/heavy at times. In the upper levels, this precipitation
is being driven by an upper level low pressure system crossing the
Central Plains (mainly KS)and accompanying trough axis extending
northward into central Canada. Have had a few rounds of mesoscale
band through the day, the sharpest of this occurred mid-morning
through early afternoon...roughly along a McCook/Lexington/Greeley
line. This band was about 10-15 miles across, and dumped 3-5
inches (from reports so far) of snow. That band dissipated, but
another broader swath has since redeveloped over the northwestern
third or so of the CWA. Another swath of heavier snow has also
been streaming northeastward this afternoon across areas along a
York-Superior, NE/Osborne, KS line...so far reports have been in
the 2-4 inch range. For those in the middle, snow has been light,
maybe flurries at best. At the surface, the main surface low sits
southeast of the CWA over far southeastern KS, keeping winds
northerly. Sustained speeds have mainly been in the 20-25 MPH
range, with plenty of gusts around 30-35 MPH and a few right
around 40 MPH. In those areas of heavier snow, combined with the
wind, no doubt there were periods where travel was treacherous
with little in the way of visibility. 3 PM temps range from the
mid teens to lower 20s, and with the wind, wind chill values are
mainly in the single digits above zero.

This evening/tonight, models are in good agreement showing this
system gradually continuing its push east...and eventually
precipitation will come to an end. Forecast has PoPs tapering off
from 00-06Z, with dry conditions after 06Z...but it`s possible at
least some flurries could linger after 06Z in the far SE corner of
the CWA. Winds will also taper off, as the sfc low also pushes
east and high pressure builds in from the NW. Am on the slower
side of this with how quickly speeds diminish. Cloud cover will
also be decreasing, and have mostly clear skies by 12Z tomorrow.

For tomorrow, the forecast remains a dry one, with good agreement
showing northwesterly flow building across the area in the wake of
today`s system. Winds become more westerly through the day, with
speeds around 10-15 MPH. Temperatures look to moderate a bit, and
have mid 30s in the forecast, through it`s complicated with the
new snowfall affecting the NW and SE corners of the CWA.
Confidence in highs tomorrow is not high.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Looking ahead to Thursday through next Tuesday, overall no
significant changes were made to the forecast. Models are in
pretty good agreement showing that the upper level pattern is
dominated by varying amplitudes of northwesterly flow. Changes in
the flow are a result of periodic waves that look to push through
the region. At this point, there aren`t any significant systems
moving through, more along the lines of quick hitting bouts of
mainly lighter precipitation. Current forecast has PoPs late
Friday night and again late Sunday night, but don`t have the
highest confidence in that, some models hint there could be other
shots.

A stronger system well to our north will push another cold front
through the area Wednesday night/Thursday. Forecast is currently
dry, but we go from 30s and lighter winds tomorrow to lower/mid 20s
for most and more breezy out of the NW for Thursday. Models show
there will be a rebound in temps Fri-Sun back into the 30s/40s (Sun
is currently the warmest with lower/mid 40s for most), before
another front drops things back into the upper 20s to mid 30s for
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Significant Wx: A period of IFR snow thru 04Z.

Tonight: Radar shows a band of light-moderate SN currently
affecting EAR. VSBY briefly dropped to 1/2SM. Latest models data
suggests it will move into GRI for 2-3 hrs. Could see 1-2" of
accum. De-icing will be needed. Once snow ends...MVFR CIGs then
clearing 06Z-09Z...first at EAR. N winds 15-25 kt diminish to
around 10 kt. Confidence: High

Wed: VFR with no clds at or below 10K ft. Light W-WNW winds 5-10
kt. Confidence: High


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for NEZ040-
     041-046>049-061>064-073>077-082>087.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Kelley



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