Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 240817

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
417 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

A warm front will move north across the area later today and
tonight. This will lead to very warm conditions on Friday. A
cold front pushes in from the northeast late Saturday, providing
a chance of showers and making Sunday much cooler. Cool and
cloudy conditions linger into Monday, before we start to see it
warm up during next week.


Overnight some pockets of fog has formed as the moisture is
trapped in the valleys. This will quickly erode as the sun
continues to rise.

Warm air will move into the region today as high pressure
pushes in from the west. Along with the warming temperatures
come decreasing dewpoints as the airmass to our west is quite a
bit drier. Have dropped dewpoints a bit today as upstream
observations and the potential to mix out to around 850mb will
result in increased drying. Also a few wind gusts to around
20mph are possible. Along the coast, a robust seabreeze will
develop and move inland as far as Sebago Lake and Lewiston by
early afternoon. This will keep the high temperatures along the
coast in the 60s while inland locations reach the 70s.


Overnight will see mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 40s
to low 50s across the region. For Friday the high pressure
continues to push in and the resulting west flow will bring
downsloping winds. Once again expect good mixing so some wind
gusts to around 20mph are possible. With the temperatures aloft
climbing to +14C at 850mb and good mixing virtually all of the
area will reach the 80s and 90F is possible in the Manchester to
Nashua corridor. The front begins to retreat back down from the
St. Lawrence on Friday night brining a slight chance for
thunderstorms along the Canadian border.


For the most part cooler air aloft continues to retreat pole
ward across NOAM and environs, and ridging noses northward
across the central part of the continent toward Hudson Bay by
the middle of next week. So, while it looks good for an overall
warming trend in the larger scale and the long range, will have
to deal with back door front this weekend, which will make
things quite cool Sunday into Monday.

W-SW flow should persist thru Friday night, so mins will on the
milder side, mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Initially the
front will be just N of the CWA, which will provide a threat of
showers in the north, but these should hold there thru most of
the night before a wave passing to the north start pushing that
front south.

Saturday is a bit tricky, especially for max temps, as the
timing of the fropa will ultimately determine how warm it gets.
I think most spots should see mid 70s to mid 80s before the
front moves in, but the ME mtns and central ME could be limited
to to the mid 60s to around 70. Once that front goes thru and
winds shift to NE, probably in the afternoon in the ern zones
and along the coast east of PWM, temps will drop off quickly and
noticeably. For the rest of the CWA, the front will cross
during the evening. Should be enough instability ahead of the
front across southern zones that a chance of thunder should be
in the forecast for Saturday afternoon into evening across srn
NH, with a threat of showers continuing across all but the NE
zones Sat night.

Sunday and Monday look cool and cloudy with a chance of
showers, and maybe some DZ at times closer to the coast as
onshore flow persists into Monday morning. Highs Sunday will be
60-65 inland areas, and in the mid to upper 50s on the coast
with cloudy skies. Sunday will see clouds, spotty DZ and the chc
of showers continue with lows mostly in the 40s, except low 50s
in srn NH. Monday may see a little improvement away from the
coast, as the onshore flow weakens and flow aloft shift more
westerly. It still looks mainly cloudy, and there`s a chance of
showers, with highs in the 60s, but closer to 70 in inland areas
of NH, but closer top 60 on the coast.

A decent 500 mb wave approaches Monday night and will cross the
region Tuesday, which should bring a front through and shift
the flow to NW. This should allow us to mix down the warmer
temps aloft /around 10 C at 850 MB/, which will push highs into
the 70s, to near 80 in the warmer spots. 500 MB ridging begins
to settle in during the middle of the week, with mainly dry and
warm conditions Wed-Thu.


Short Term... Generally VFR conditions across the region. A few
patches of IFR/LIFR ongoing in the mountains as of 4am will lift
after sunrise. For coastal sites, expect a strong seabreeze this
afternoon. Friday will again by VFR but with continued west flow
keeping the seabreeze at bay.

VFR conditions expected tonight through Thursday
night. However, there will be some patchy inland valley fog over
eastern areas tonight with localized MVFR or IFR conditions
along and near the Penobscot River Valley.

Long Term...
Mainly VFR Friday night into Sat. Expecting IFR cigs to develop
Sat night and likely linger thru Sunday into Sunday night.
Improvement to MVFR or VFR possible at inland terminals on


Short Term...Winds will be fairly calm today but we`ll see
increasing southerly flow tonight as an east west pressure
gradient sets up across the region. This will result in gusts to
25kts on the outer waters with waves building to 5-7ft through
the midcoast and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued.
Long  Term... Lingering SCA conds Fri night should diminish by
Saturday morning. May need another SCA in NE flow on Sunday.


The next two days will see generally hot and dry conditions.
Today Min RH values will fall to 20-25% across the interior.
Along the coast a seabreeze will keep moist air in place.
While there will be good mixing the fairly weak upper level flow
should keep winds in the 15-20mph range- just below Red Flag
criteria. Nevertheless with 10-hr and 100-hr fuel moistures less
than 15% across portions of the area the dry conditions present
an increased risk for any fire activity and an SPS has been
issued to highlight this across inland areas.

Friday will be similar to today with temperatures climbing even
warmer. West flow will dominate keeping a sea breeze at bay and
allowing the RH to fall to below 30% across much of the area.
This will put southern NH near Red Flag criteria and will need
to be watched for possible Fire Wx headlines.




NEAR TERM...Curtis
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