Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 180854
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
154 AM PDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly clear skies, dry weather and light winds will
continue through Saturday. Daytime temperatures will be slightly
warmer than normal following cool mornings. A weak upper low will
move across the area on Sunday and bring a slight chance of light
precipitation to the Kern County desert areas. Dry weather and
near normal temperatures will prevail for the first part of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A northerly flow aloft continues at this time,
while an upper-level low pressure system remains centered over
Utah and an upper- level ridge of high pressure remains off the
West Coast. The dry pattern continues today, and yet another cool
morning followed by a warm afternoon is in store, as daytime
highs will reach at least 3-5 degrees above average at most
locations in the Central California interior. Temperatures will
remain similar through at least Saturday, as little changes in the
overall weather pattern are expected.

One noticeable change in the weather pattern, at least for Kern
County and possibly locations along the Sierra Nevada crest, will
occur on Sunday, as a weak upper-level disturbance moves inland
over Southern California. There remains a slight chance for
showers along the Sierra crest and into the Kern County desert
during the day on Sunday, although models have been shifting the
mid-level moisture mainly over SE California and locations to the
east. Generally little change in temperatures for most locations
in our forecast area are expected until Monday after the
disturbance progresses further eastward.

Temperatures will likely moderate back towards seasonal averages
on Monday and continue through the middle part of next week. It
appears a mainly zonal pattern will continue, although with
considerable model differences. For instance, the latest Euro
brings a weakening cold front and band of precipitation over
northern California and clips areas mainly Fresno County and
northward on Tuesday night and Wednesday with yet another band of
precipitation over Norcal on next Thursday. However, the GFS keeps
any moisture and low pressure systems well to our north, or
mainly over far northern California into the Pacific Northwest.
Thus, forecast confidence declines after early next week, so will
have to wait and see before making significant changes beyond that
time. For now, forecast remains dry for Monday and beyond.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...BSO
avn/fw...JDB
synopsis...BSO

weather.gov/hanford



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