Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 212059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
159 PM PDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High pressure will provide dry conditions into at least early
next week. A warming trend will bring temperatures to well above
normal by Sunday then little changes through the middle of next


No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon as a
positively tilted upper ridge extends from central California to
the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a weak low off the coast of
northern Baja is spinning a few high clouds into the region this
afternoon. The weak low will have little additional effect other
that a few high clouds as it moves east across Baja tonight and

The ridge will provide dry conditions and a warming trend across
central California through this weekend. A weak shortwave trough
will move over the Pacific Northwest Sunday afternoon, but will
have little impact for central California. High temperatures are
forecast to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the San
Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert by Sunday and remain there
through mid week.

A deep upper low is progged to drop down over the eastern Pacific
early next week with amplified ridging over the far western
CONUS. The models continue to struggle with the evolution of this
low. The 12Z run of the ECMWF is similar to the previous run in
keeping the low well offshore through midweek then lifting NNE
towards the Pacific Northwest coast late in the week. The GFS,
however, is now bringing it closer to the California coast by
Wednesday and keeping it there through the end of the week before
moving inland over central California next weekend. For now have
opted to stay with the ECMWF solution which will keep temperatures
10-15 degrees above normal through midweek then a gradual cooling
trend to follow. Have kept the slight chance POPs over the Sierra
Nevada from Wednesday through the end of the week as there could
be a little afternoon/evening convection.


VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior during
the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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