Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 221102
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
402 AM PDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to bring a warming trend
the next couple of days then little changes through midweek. Dry
conditions will prevail though there is a slight chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra crest Tuesday through
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a weak upper low spinning
just off the coast of northern Baja CA and spreading a few high
clouds over central CA. These clouds are on the decrease as the
low is shifting inland. A weak s/wv trough off the PAC NW coast
will move inland this afternoon and could spread some more high
clouds across the region. Regardless, cloud cover should be not
be sufficient to inhibit warming. Temperatures are forecast to
nudge a little higher both today and Monday resulting in highs
around 10-15 degrees above climatological norms for late April.
Little changes in temperatures are expected through midweek as
an upper low drops down offshore of the west coast and an upper
ridge remains over the western CONUS. Slight chance POPs remain
over the Sierra crest beginning Tuesday as isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop with daytime heating.

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the track
of the offshore low. 24 hours ago, the GFS had trended towards
the ECMWF idea of lifting it NE towards the PAC NW coast later
in the week. But the last couple of runs have reverted back to
moving it inland over central CA late Friday into Saturday. The
GEM is somewhat of a compromise as it tracks the low inland over
northern CA. So lots to be determined still as there could just
be a modest cooling trend with dry weather continuing or a more
significant cooling trend with precipitation chances. Have kept
cooling trend Thursday and Friday with temperatures lowering to
near climo again. Nudged POPs a bit higher and increased areal
coverage Friday night and Saturday, but chances are still low.
Onshore surface pressure gradient will increase late in the week
for breezy to gusty conditions, mainly in/around mountain passes.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior during
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...DCH
avn/fw...Durfee
synopsis...DCH

weather.gov/hanford


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