Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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417
FXUS66 KHNX 211848
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1148 AM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will rise to around 10 to 15 degrees above
average this weekend with widespread triple digit afternoon
highs across the lower elevations. A Heat Advisory is in effect
from Saturday through Monday morning.

2. There is a 50 to 80 percent probability for a high
temperature of 105 degrees or above across most of the San
Joaquin Valley on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

3. Above average temperatures continue until the middle of next
week, with triple digit heat persisting for many locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mainly dry conditions will continue today with temperatures
about 3-5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. This
afternoon`s highs are on track to reach the upper 90`s at the
warmest valley spots, along with some triple digits in the Kern
County desert. The warming trend continues this weekend as the
upper-level trough over the Pac NW weakens and moves inland
while the ridge builds into our forecast area from the Desert
Southwest.

Widespread triple digit heat returns Saturday and lingers into
early next week. The best chances for a high of 105 degrees and
hotter will be on Saturday and Sunday (at 50-80 percent) with
lowering probabilities starting early next week. We will
continue the Heat Advisory for this weekend into early next
week, as the heat risk remains at the moderate to high
levels until Tuesday morning. Little relief during the
overnights is in store once we heat up, including for vulnerable
and sensitive populations, as well as the largest urban areas
in the SJ Valley and the higher terrain towards the south end of
the valley where lows will struggle to drop below the mid-70`s.
As some mid- level tropical moisture due to the remnants of TS
Alberto (that was over the Gulf of Mexico earlier this week)
passes over Southern CA, there is the potential for isolated
thunderstorms in the mountains and desert in Kern County. The
chances at this time are mainly about 10 percent by Sunday
morning and as early as late Saturday night. If we don`t get
thunderstorms, we would otherwise see an increase in mid-level
clouds and humidity. Chances for thunderstorm are a little
higher for the mountains of LA/Ventura/SBD Counties and nearby
desert portions. It is more certain that we will be very hot on
Sunday and again on Monday. The probability of highs at or above
105 degrees in the Central Valley remain at around 20 to 40
percent and 40 to 60 percent for the Kern County desert on
Monday afternoon. In addition, overnight lows will continue warm
into Tuesday morning.

We will still see triple digit heat Tuesday until Thursday as
the ridging remains in place over the area. Chances for a high
at or above 100 degrees in the SJ Valley are around 30 to 60
percent for Tuesday until Wednesday, though even higher for the
Kern County desert. Lower probabilities of triple digits exist
for Thursday, although it is more uncertain for this lead time.
In addition, the overnight lows won`t be quite as warm.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Monday for
CAZ300>317-319-321-332.
&&

$$

BSO/SM

weather.gov/hanford