Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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735
FXUS63 KICT 182353
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
553 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

A seasonably strong 160kt jet crashing into the Pacific NW this
afternoon will carve out a longwave trough over the central US
over the next couple of days. At the surface, a lee-side trough
will deepen as mid-level height falls overspread the Great
Plains. Low-level moist advection ahead of the trough should allow
areas of low clouds to develop once again over Oklahoma later
this evening, eventually spreading north into
southern/southeastern Kansas by tonight/Wednesday morning. Beneath
this stratus deck, patchy fog will likely develop as higher
dewpoints advect into the area, leading to lower T/Td spreads. At
this time, we do not expect widespread, dense fog to develop.
But, like this morning, a few areas could see reductions in
visibility to a half a mile or less. Some drizzle cannot be ruled
out early Wednesday morning, but the depth of moisture looks too
marginal for any mention at this time.

The surface trough will push east through the area on Wednesday,
allowing a NW flow/CAA regime to ensue. Within this flow, steepening
lapse rates will allow deeper mixing and breezy conditions by
Wednesday afternoon, especially central Kansas. This may lead to a
locally higher grassland fire danger, especially Russell/Barton
Counties. By Wednesday afternoon/evening, increasing low/mid level
convergence and deepening moisture profiles should allow isolated
to scattered rain showers to develop, especially along and east
of the Kansas Turnpike.

On Thursday, a northerly low/mid level jet will develop across the
Plains on the backside of the developing longwave trough. Locally,
the strongest winds aloft peak Wednesday night/Thursday morning and
will be offset from peak heating and steepest lapse rates,
ultimately limiting the strength of the wind Thursday. The wind,
then, will primarily be gradient-driven, with gusts of 30-40 mph
expected. For now, we expect wind speeds/gusts to remain just below
Wind Advisory criteria. However, these gusts will lead to increased
and more widespread fire weather concerns compared to Wednesday,
especially areas that do not see any precipitation Wednesday
afternoon/evening (please see the Fire Weather section for
further details).

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Medium range guidance begins to differ late-week and especially
heading into the week of Christmas. The general theme, though, is a
progressive pattern with several shortwaves traversing the region.
The progressive nature, should that end up being the case, would
tend to prevent any substantial return flow/moisture advection,
consequently limiting the chance of precip. This should also
prevent any substantial temperature fluctuations. For now, this
suggests a lower-impact period for those with early holiday
travel planned.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

South winds and low level warm advection and moisture advection will
lead to increasing MVFR cigs and and even some fog far areas east of
the KS Turnpike late this evening and overnight.  Expect MVFR cigs
to move into KCNU sometime between 03-06z, with vsbys dropping to 4-
5SM.  A little less certain on whether MVFR conditions will make it
as far west as KICT.  Latest high rez SREF and HREF data suggests it
will, leading to MVFR cigs overnight, after 08z. Could also see some
MVFR vsbys from fog make it into KICT as well, with lower vsbys
probably just to the east of KICT. Could see the MVFR conditions
persist until the morning hours on Wed, until a surface trough
scours out the low level moisture midday Wed.

Not expecting the lower cigs or fog to make as far north or west as
KHUT or KSLN.

For central KS, the main concern will a wind shift to the NW by
midday Wed, as a surface trough moves across the forecast area.
Could also see some sprinkles or isolated post frontal light showers
for Wed afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Breezy/windy conditions will lead to increasing fire weather
concerns over the next couple of days. The primary area of concern
on Wednesday will be central Kansas, especially Russell and
Barton Counties. By Thursday, increasing northerly winds of 30-40
mph areawide will likely lead to a very high grassland fire
danger for most of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    40  57  36  51 /   0  20  20   0
Hutchinson      35  56  34  51 /   0  20  10   0
Newton          39  55  33  49 /   0  20  20   0
ElDorado        41  56  35  50 /   0  30  30   0
Winfield-KWLD   40  56  36  52 /   0  30  30   0
Russell         31  54  31  50 /   0  20   0   0
Great Bend      32  55  33  50 /   0  20   0   0
Salina          35  54  33  51 /   0  20  10   0
McPherson       35  54  33  50 /   0  20  10   0
Coffeyville     41  56  37  51 /   0  30  50   0
Chanute         41  54  36  49 /   0  30  40   0
Iola            41  54  36  48 /   0  30  40   0
Parsons-KPPF    41  55  37  50 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...RM



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