Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180444
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1044 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

The trough that moved through last night is on the move eastward
towards the Great Lakes. A ridge has followed in behind the
exiting trough. Today was a nice day to be outside with
temperatures climbing into the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Forecast challenges and highlights: Elevated fire concerns for
Sunday and chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday

A trough is traveling down the Rockies. There is a first wave that
will move from the Front Range late tonight into Sunday. This part
of the system stays over the Northern Plains. If you enjoyed
Saturday, Sunday will be even warmer with highs climbing to around
70 degrees in central Kansas. Southerly winds are going to be in
fill force though with sustained speeds of 25 to 30 mph in the
afternoon. Current forecast is just at the criteria threshold for a
wind advisory for central Kansas; however, the potential issuance of
a Red Flag Warning has prompted a hold in issuing an advisory.
Messaging will be put out on social media to alert of the gusty
southerly winds for now. There is a return in moisture across
Oklahoma into the eastern half of Kansas. Additional moisture would
play to increasing the dew points, but this will not make much of a
difference in terms of the elevated fire conditions especially in
central Kansas counties. A Fire Weather Watch was issued for few
counties to highlight this threat. Please see the watch and fire
weather section for more information. Adjustments in the wind speeds
or dew points based on the latest observations up stream and model
guidance could be better indicators for additional headlines.

A trough for Sunday into Monday will stretch from the northeast
to southwest or roughly Lake Superior to the Front Range.
Increased moisture transport is going to stay to start the week
with the trough over the west coast and high pressure over the
Atlantic creating a transitional zone for the Southern Plains.
Chances of precipitation remain in the forecast beginning Sunday
night thru Tuesday. The best chances for any precipitation are
going to be in southeast Kansas, Missouri and eastern Oklahoma.
Thunderstorms will be possible with this activity. Total rainfall
could be a half of an inch up to nearly two inches for southeast
Kansas. Monday night into Tuesday appears now to be the time
period for the highest likelihood of rain as the trough is on the
move. Changes to this part of the forecast could occur in the
coming days.

The trough is expected to push out on Tuesday and usher in cold air
with the rollercoaster back into action. Temperatures from Monday to
Tuesday could basically be cut in half across most of the state.
In the far southeast corner, temperatures may still be in the 50s
though.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Overnight temperatures on Tuesday into early Wednesday will drop
to the teens to single digits with the lowest values in north
central and northwest Kansas. Wind chills are calculated to be
from 0 to -10 degrees northwest of the Flint Hills on Wednesday
morning. Make sure to bundle up before heading out the door. After
the trough exits, there will be a gradual climb in the temperatures
to follow. The next system shows up for Friday into Saturday.
There is a difference in the timing of the models, but the
suggestion of precipitation returns for late Thursday night into
Friday. A mix of precipitation types is possible in the form of
freezing rain or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Winds will gradually come around to the south overnight as lee
troughing increases across the high plains. As this occurs, a strong
low level jet will develop before sunrise on Sunday with winds just
off of the surface in the 40-50kt range for areas along and west of
Interstate 135. Surface winds will be strong on Sun with sustained
speeds of 25 to 30 kts and wind gusts to 35 kts.

LOw level moisture will increase rapidly for Sun evening, with areas
of MVFR and even some IFR cigs moving into the KICT and KCNU taf
sites after 03z/Mon.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Sunday is the highlight day in terms of elevated fire conditions
over the area. The main components will be southerly winds at
sustained speeds of 25 to 30 mph with possible gusts to near 40 mph
and the persistent dry conditions. Central Kansas is anticipated
to reach extreme grassland fire danger. Thus a Fire Weather Watch
was issued for five counties in central Kansas to highlight this
threat. Please see the latest watch for more details. Burning is
discouraged across arguably the entire state of Kansas on Sunday
given the expected conditions. Very high grassland fire danger is
forecast across south central and southeast Kansas on Monday with
sustained winds around 20 mph. Chances of precipitation are
brought into the forecast from Sunday night thru Tuesday. The best
chance for rain is on Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  63  56  70 /   0   0  10  20
Hutchinson      29  65  52  63 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          34  62  54  64 /   0   0  10  20
ElDorado        35  61  56  69 /   0   0  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   36  63  58  73 /   0  10  20  30
Russell         34  72  36  45 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      35  72  41  51 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          33  66  48  53 /   0   0  20  10
McPherson       34  65  51  58 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     33  62  57  71 /   0  10  40  60
Chanute         30  60  56  69 /   0   0  50  50
Iola            32  60  56  68 /   0   0  40  50
Parsons-KPPF    29  61  57  70 /   0   0  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...VJP



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