Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 182035
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
335 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Tonight:
Good upper support for precipitation tonight appears to be lacking
with storms aligned 850mb moisture transport. Satellite and 300MB
forecast show jet lifting north of area at this time leaving
straight or weakly confluent upper flow this evening. Anticipate
storms will wane quickly by sunset. Storms that develop on the
front range should stay north of the forecast area overnight.
Temperatures should remain quite mild throughout the night.

Tuesday:
A few models propagate MCS south into the northeast fringes of
forecast area, with GFS the most agressive outlier. Given
orientation of upper flow and modest low level jet, the far south
trajectories seem unlikely. Increased winds and temperatures a
bit during the day, as front remains well west of the area.

Tuesday night-Thursday:
Models continue to waffle on on track/timing of upper low moving
across the Central Plains. However QPF consensus is fairly good,
suggesting precipitation is probable starting Tuesday night in
central KS and then spreading to southeast KS on Wednesday.
Extensive clouds should limit warm and forecast is likely not
cool enough on maxes. Timing/location is a bit problematic as both
ECMWF/GFS show pronounced differences in their respective dry
slot working around low. Locally heavy rain will be possible with
system but if/where in the forecast area that would be is
questionable. At this time most likely area would be in central
KS. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Temperatures remain below normal on Friday before rebounding over
the weekend. Wavy zonal flow does not bode well for predictability
of precipitation or temperatures with surface boundary allegedly
meandering somewhere in the forecast area. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Cigs at
KCNU will flirt with MVFR conditions for the next couple of hours
before the CU field lifts a couple hundred feet with warming
temps. Breezy south winds will also plague all sites except KCNU
with gusts into the middle 20 knot range this afternoon and
evening. It is possible to see some VCTS in and around the KRSL
and KGBD areas late this afternoon and early evening. These
locations are the closest in proximity to the frontal boundary
across NW KS. A few stray RW/TRW could pop up to the S and SW of
KICT and KHUT but should not affect aviation concerns. VFR
conditions are also forecast on Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  92  70  86 /  10  10  40  50
Hutchinson      75  93  68  85 /  10  10  60  60
Newton          74  91  69  85 /  10  10  50  50
ElDorado        72  89  70  82 /  10  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   73  90  71  85 /  10  10  20  50
Russell         75  95  66  82 /  10  20  80  40
Great Bend      74  94  66  83 /  10  10  80  50
Salina          77  96  69  84 /  20  20  70  50
McPherson       75  93  68  85 /  20  10  70  60
Coffeyville     72  90  71  84 /  10  10  10  50
Chanute         73  88  71  82 /  10  10  10  50
Iola            73  88  71  82 /  10  10  10  40
Parsons-KPPF    72  89  71  83 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CWH



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