Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 250540
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
140 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions are expected through most of the weekend.
Sunday night into next week a cooler and more unsettled pattern
develops with multiple systems moving through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Update...
A few low to mid-level clouds are moving across
central/southern portions of the fa. These clouds will dissipate
across the northern counties and allow for mostly clear skies to
ensue, but some low and mid-level clouds will linger near the
Tri-State. Southeasterly winds overnight will continue to
remain below 5kts as surface high pressure remains in control.
No major changes made to the current forecast.

Previous Discussion...
Showers that were around this morning have dissipated, however
there are some additional light showers just southwest of the
forecast area. These showers will have the potential to move
into locations near and south of the Ohio River Valley into the
early evening hours. Elsewhere, expect dry conditions through
the near term. There will also be more cloud cover across the
southern portions of the forecast area than the northern
locations. This will allow for temperatures to be able to drop
off a little cooler across northern locations overnight. Low
temperatures will be in the low to middle 50s across the north
and the middle to upper 50s across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Mostly dry conditions will be present through the short term. A
few showers will be possible across extreme southern portions
of the region as a low pressure system moves south of the
region.

Went close to the blend for temperatures during this time. High
temperatures on Friday will generally be in the 70s with lows
generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridging develops into the area Saturday along with
low level southerly flow on the back side of surface high
pressure. Warm and dry conditions with highs generally in the
lower 80s.

Model solutions continue to trend slower with an approaching front,
return moisture and pcpn Sunday. Have limited any mention of pcpn to
a slight chance late in the day over the far northwest. Warm
temperatures to continue with highs Sunday in the lower 80s.

With the more amplified/digging mid level flow and slower Fropa have
slowed pops Sunday night into Monday. 12Z deterministic ECMWF is
slowest and a bit of an outlier with front pushing thru on Tuesday.
Due to spread in model solutions, confidence in exact details and
timing for pcpn is low. Temperatures Monday will be dependent on
pcpn timing and frontal position. Have highs from the upper 60s
northwest to the mid 70s southeast.

Initial shortwave to lift northeast with front and deeper moisture
pushing east as mid level trof settles south into the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley at mid week. Have high chance pops with a slight
chance of thunder Tuesday. Highs from the lower 60s to upper 60s
Tuesday.

Colder temperatures aloft steepens low level lapse rates leading to
low level instability. Expect somewhat of a diurnal nature to the
showers on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons -- with the best chance
across the north. Readings turn colder with highs Wednesday of 60 to
65, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An H5 vort max will be lifting north through eastern Kentucky
early this morning. In response to the PVA clouds are forecast
to lift back north towards the srn tafs. Expect the VFR ceilings
to reach CVG and LUK around 12Z. Until then, valley fog will
affect LUK. Vsbys could drop down to IFR at times.

After 12Z, the vort max will continue to rotate up through West
Virginia and ern Ohio ahead of a s/w swinging east. This should
increase the cloud cover for the morning hours. As the axis of
the s/w swings though during the afternoon, the tafs should see
a decrease in clouds from west to east.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak/Sites
NEAR TERM...Clark/Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Sites


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