Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 230108
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
908 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday as low
pressure moves slowly from Indiana into Northern Ohio. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday when a
disturbance is forecast to cross Kentucky. High pressure
centered over New England will provide dry weather Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A low pressure system centered over west central Indiana will
lift slowly northeast into far northwest Ohio overnight. Bands
of mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pivot
northeast across our area as they rotate around the low. We have
seen an overall decreasing trend in both coverage and intensity
over the last couple of hours and expect this trend to continue
into the early morning hours as we further lose the daytime
heating. Will therefore gradually taper pops back from southwest
to northeast as we head into the overnight hours. The
widespread flash flood threat also appears to have diminished
but will go ahead and hang on to the FFA through midnight or at
least until the current activity lifting across northern
portions of our fa either weakens or moves off to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure lifts into the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday. There
may be some lingering shower activity across the northern CWA to
start the day. Then with daytime heating, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop for the afternoon, however
coverage should be less than today and thus PoPs are in the
chance category for the afternoon, and lowering to slight chance
after dark. Stayed close to guidance for maximum temperatures
with mid 70s across the northern CWA to around 80 along/south of
the Ohio River, and then mid 60s across the CWA for minima.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short wave moving into convergent mid level flow may result in more
showers and thunderstorms skirting across the southern part of the
forecast area early in the period. After this system, high pressure
at the surface and aloft will build into the region for Monday. 12Z
guidance is now a bit quicker to move this off to the east. So
chance of storms may return to northwest counties as early as
Tuesday afternoon. But better chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday night into Wednesday evening as a weakening cold
front approaches from the northwest. Appears that this front will
stall and wash out before making much if any progress into the
forecast area. Thus southerly flow will persist through the end of
the period. At this point, forcing looks weak Thursday into Friday
as forecast area will be on the southern fringe of the westerlies.
Temperatures will be near normal early in the week, but hot and
humid conditions will return Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bands of scattered showers and thunderstorms are continuing to
rotate around a low pressure system currently centered across
central Indiana. The most significant band affecting our area
at the moment stretches from northwest Ohio through KILN to
northeast Kentucky. This band will continue to rotate northeast
over the next few hours, mainly affecting the central Ohio
terminals through the evening hours, with more isolated coverage
elsewhere across the area. Do expect to see an overall
weakening trend though as we begin to lose the daytime heating
and move into the overnight hours. Outside of KCMH/KLCK, will
cover the threat with a VCSH.

Models are showing a fair amount of low level moisture later
tonight and into Saturday morning. This will likely result in
the development of some IFR to MVFR stratus overnight and then
likely lingering through Saturday morning. As the low pressure
system lifts northeast through the day on Saturday, some
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible
again through the afternoon hours, especially across portions of
central Ohio.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-064-065-074.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL



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