Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 151759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1259 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large, slow moving low pressure system will move from the
Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians this weekend.
Widespread rain and mild conditions are expected into tonight.
The rain will taper off early Sunday as the low moves off to the
east coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Large band of rain will continue to pivot across the forecast
area through the afternoon. Back edge is working into the
southern counties, so rain will diminish there. Temperatures
will remain nearly steady.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Large mid level low to track northeast through the TN Vly
tonight and east into the Delmarva region Sunday. As the mid
level low approaches - elongated surface low to pivot thru the
Ohio Valley tonight. Favorable moisture and forcing will
continue into this evening with the potential for localized
flooding continuing. As the system pushes off to the east, rain
will begin to taper off from west to east late tonight into
early Sunday. Expect considerable cloudiness through the night
with lows from the mid/upper 30s northwest to the mid 40s
southeast.

Northwest flow develops on Sunday with a good deal of clouds
early. Forecast soundings show moisture becoming more shallow
as the day wears on. Therefore, expect a decrease in clouds
Sunday afternoon. Sundays highs to range from the mid 40s
northwest to the upper 40s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper ridge will travel from the Great Plains Monday to the Great
Lakes Tuesday and then to the East Coast on Wednesday. Surface high
pressure forming under the confluent northwest flow ahead the upper
ridge will push across the Ohio Valley, resulting in dry weather
conditions in the subsident anticyclonic circulation around the
high.

An upper trough will be approaching on Thursday. As the upper trough
deepens and a closed upper low and surface low develop, moisture and
lift will increase rather dramatically, producing the likelihood for
showers by Thursday night, with snow possibly mixing in Friday as
colder air filters in toward the end of the event.

Temperatures will start near normal Monday and Tuesday, with highs
averaging 40. Warm advection on a southerly flow will nudge readings
up to the 40s and low 50s by Thursday, before a retreat back to the
low 40s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain will continue to slowly move north which will result in
precipitation ending at the terminals during the early part of
the TAF period. Additional rain will develop tonight as low
pressure moves by. This will most likely affect the central Ohio
sites, although cannot completely rule out some light rain at
other locations. MVFR to IFR ceilings will lower to IFR area
wide with some locations dropping to LIFR. Visibility
restrictions will persist until after 06Z and then improve. IFR
ceilings will persist until very late in the TAF period when
ceilings will lift to MVFR and clouds may even start to scatter
in some places by 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at times through
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...


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