Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 172114
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
414 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will push east across the Great
Lakes tonight. High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather
on Sunday. A warm front will approach the region from the
southwest Sunday night, and will move north through the area on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level and low level jet energy has resulted in snow over
the region this afternoon. In fact, the southeast CWFA has
picked up 2 to 4 inches of snow. Had to issue a short term
Winter Weather Advisory due to this. Heaviest snow has passed to
the east, with a brief break expected in these locations early
this evening.

For this evening, a mix of rain and snow is likely as an upper
level disturbance moves east across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will actually warm slightly this evening into the
lower and mid 30s. And with a mix of pcpn, and being much
lighter, little additional snow accumulation is expected.

Pcpn will come to an end between 03Z and 06Z as the disturbance
moves away and subsidence occurs in the wake of the feature.
Clouds will be slow to clear, but some breaks should develop
west late as surface high pressure builds into the region. Lows
will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure will move east of the region on Sunday, some early
morning low clouds should move east and/or dissipate during the
morning, leaving mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. With a
return southerly flow and sunshine, highs will range from the
mid 40s to the lower 50s.

For Sunday night, mid level flow will begin to buckle. Warm,
moist air will be drawn up from the southwest as a warm front
approaches our region. Embedded s/wv energy in the flow aloft,
along with increasing warm, moist ascent will allow clouds to
thicken and lower with showers developing and overspreading the
region late. Overnight lows, ranging from the mid 30s to the
lower 40s, will be early on, with temperatures slowly rising
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast will generally be categorized as unseasonably
warm, cloudy, and with higher chances and prolonged periods of rain
than would typically be expected.

Monday will see a gradual warming through the day from the previous
night`s lows in the late evening, reaching into the 60s, possibly 70
degrees south of the Ohio River. This is due to a warm front
situated from northern Michigan through Kansas City and the Ohio
Valley receiving a good bit of southerly winds and Gulf moisture.
Convergence in the warm sector appears to be limited in our CWA to
the northwest, and mainly early. A chance for rain will persist in
the nw half of the CWA as the aforementioned front becomes quasi-
stationary and meanders slowly east through Tues. Better moisture
pooling here and the proximity of the better dynamics nearer the
front necessitate higher chances of rain here, but the sw CWA will
likely benefit from the pattern without the rain. Unseasonably and
nicely mild temperatures through Wednesday morning are expected
here. All areas will likely exceed record high minimum temps Mon and
Tues nights, with record highs possible during the day Tuesday.

A surface low will track northeast along the front overnight
Tuesday, and then high pressure building in the upper Midwest will
help to nose the surface front into and eventually through the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wed night. The coolest temperatures in the
forecast will occur Wed night and Thurs and will still be 10 deg
above normal on overnight lows and about 5 deg above normal for
daytime highs Thursday.

Tuesday will see moderate rain chances just northwest of the area
then work in overnight. Used this moderate qualifier where pops were
likely and higher through Wednesday. After the precip area gets
shunted east Thurs and overnight, return flow sets up and another
solid shot of rain is in the offing for Friday into Sat.

Will cap Friday`s chance of precip at 50% through noon given the dry
GFS through this time. Afterwards likely pops sound reasonable in
the northwest. The rain footprint from overnight Friday migrates
southeast on Saturday but models diverge significantly with GFS
putting the rainfall south and east of the region, Canadian centered
on southern CWA and axis running from Wheeling to Arklatx, and
European evolving a warm front w-e along n of I-70 corridor then
dropping sw along the Mississippi River. Given a wide variety of
solutions on the weekend, have capped pops at chance category.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move into the region by this
evening. Ahead of it, widespread precipitation due to low level
and upper level jet dynamics can be expected for most of the
afternoon hours. The widespread precipitation shield is then
expected to exit the eastern forecast area between 21Z and 00Z.
It now appears that the precipitation will either be snow or
a rain/snow mix before some warming in the low levels, along
with the lack of active ice nuclei aloft, bring the threat of
light rain and snow, or even some patchy drizzle. Ceilings and
visbilities will drop into the IFR categories with the main
precipitation.

For tonight, upper level disturbance moves east this evening.
This will keep a least of chance of rain/snow/drizzle going
until subsidence develops in its wake. IFR ceilings and MVFR
visbilities should transition to MVFR ceilings and VFR
visbilities overnight. In fact, clouds may scattered late across
the western terminals. West to northwest winds will lighten as
surface high pressure builds into the region.

On Sunday, high pressure will move east of the region. Winds
will shift to the southeast/south. Residual low clouds will
eventually shift east and/or dissipate with only FEW-SCT high
clouds expected thereafter.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
on Monday. MVFR conditions possible at times from Monday night
through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for OHZ081-
     082-088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for KYZ099-
     100.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman



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