Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 240138
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
838 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Clear skies and light winds have allowed 01z/8pm temperatures to
drop into the lower to middle 40s across much of the KILX
CWA...with a few readings dipping into the upper 30s where winds
have gone calm. As winds decrease further and radiational cooling
continues, overnight lows will generally be in the lower to middle
30s. Current forecast is right on track, so no update is needed at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

High pressure over northwest Minnesota will settle over Lake
Michigan by midday Wednesday. Little going on for us in this
weather pattern, with only some scattered high clouds arriving on
Wednesday. The dry air overhead should allow temperatures to fall
into the lower 30s tonight, but a healthy rebound into the mid 50s
is likely on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Main forecast focus remains with the late week into the weekend.
Not a lot of changes with the model trends with the morning runs.
The shortwave currently near the Arizona/California border will
track into the central Plains on Wednesday, before it starts to
sharpen on Thursday. The GFS remains the least interested in any
interaction with hurricane moisture remnants Thursday night and
Friday, while most of the remaining models are all on board. Thus,
will increase PoP`s quite a bit, and go with likely PoP`s or
higher from about I-72 south. The arrival of a second shortwave
later Friday may result in a few showers across western Illinois.
A more substantial storm system will move in from the northwest
later this weekend, with rain likely on Sunday. Still some
concern that temperatures may be too high with this system, with
850 mb temps around 0C to -2C on Sunday, but longer range models
have a somewhat broad range in the placement of the upper low.
Upper level ridging should bring dry weather for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period.
Winds will initially be N at 5-8kt early this evening, then will
veer to E/NE late this evening, then to E/SE on Wednesday. Other
than an increase in high/thin clouds during the day Wednesday,
skies will remain mostly clear.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes


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