Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 201152
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
652 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Lake effect snow showers could accumulate up to near an inch this
morning in northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. Light
snow showers and flurries will also be possible elsewhere this
morning with little to no accumulation expected. This afternoon
through Thanksgiving will feature mainly dry conditions and below
normal temperatures. This will be followed by milder temperatures
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Light system snow tied to an upper level shortwave will exit eastern
zones by 10z leaving nothing more than some lingering
flurries/clouds for most locations today. The exception will be the
brief lake response into nw IN/sw Lower MI early this morning in
wake of an associated cold front. A mesovort just north of Benton
Harbor as of 07z should drop south bringing a period of more intense
lake effect/enhanced snow showers to sw Lower MI 9-11z and nw IN 10-
13z. Localized amounts up to an inch or two and reduced visibilities
could create a few slick spots on roads in these areas in time for
the morning commute. Covered with a SPS for now. Trailing convergent
band should focus west of the area then later this morning before
falling apart east in backing/subsident flow. Cool/mostly cloudy
otherwise today with highs in the 30s.

The next shortwave and surge of arctic air will take a much more
northerly track east-southeast through the Northern Lakes-southeast
Canada-Northeast US tonight into Wednesday. Trailing cold front does
sag south through the area later tonight-Wednesday as a result with
little more than a wind shift and clouds, save for far northern
zones where lake response may be enough to squeeze out a few
flurries or light snow showers later tonight-Wed AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

~1040 mb arctic high will translate southeast from the Great Lakes
Wednesday night to the Mid Atlantic Coast Friday under building
heights aloft. This will provide more dry/fair weather locally
with southerly flow on the backside of this feature promoting a
nice warm up by Friday. Upper wave and associated warm front
embedded in this ssw flow then brings rain chances into play by
Friday night-Saturday morning...with the rest of the weekend
relatively mild and mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

A weak cold front was moving southeast across Indiana and Ohio.
Lingering MVFR and a few patches of IFR conditions continued
behind the front. The meso vortex had arrived on shore and had
brought light snow to the SBN terminal. A few more light lake
effect snow showers should move over northwest Indiana. Winds will
back to the west as subsidence increases and causes conditions to
become VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Skipper


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