Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 161023 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
523 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms will keep conditions at
IFR/MVFR for today into early this evening. By mid evening, the
rain areas will become more scattered, but boundary layer cooling
will result in ceilings lowering to IFR/LIFR through the remainder
of the period. Winds will stay northerly around 10 knots, but
gusty around GLH./26/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Mid level ridge anchored off the southeast US
coast continues to stream a moist southwest flow up and over the
cool airmass in the lower levels. This is resulting in increasing
isentropic ascent and widespread rains breaking out over
northwestern sections. The best corridor of ascent will setup over
the nortwestern third today as deep moisture (PWs above 2 inches) is
tapped from the western Gulf of Mexico. It is also in this corridor
that the models are showing a stripe of MAUL with pockets of
elevated CAPE. In addition to the rain, have mentioned a slight
chance of thunder in these areas.

The mid level ridge over the Gulf will begin to nose northward
tonight across the southern Plains. With winds aloft gradually
veering and weakening as a result, the rain should slowly begin to
taper off, especially after midnight./26/

Wednesday through Monday: Clouds will linger much of the day
Wednesday as moisture aloft remains a fixture over the CWA.
However, rain chances will come to an end during the morning
hours, as high pressure at the surface builds south into the
region and drier air at the surface advects into the region. Highs
Wednesday afternoon will range from the lower 60s to middle 70s,
and lows Wednesday night will range from the upper 40s north to
middle 50s south.

High pressure at the surface shifts east of the CWA Thursday through
Friday, causing winds to swing back around from the south.
Conditions will begin to warm during this time, with more breaks in
the clouds being observed as well.  However, this will all be brief
as a broad trough aloft swings southeast into and through the region
late Friday and over the weekend.  Currently, this is progged to
send yet another cold front south into and through the CWA.  As a
result, rain chances begin increasing late Friday through Saturday,
while coming to an end early Sunday morning.

High pressure yet again builds into the region Sunday into Monday.
Northerly flow will bring another bout of cooler drier air to the
forecast area during this time.  Highs both Sunday and Monday will
range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.  Lows Sunday night will be
chilly as they currently look to fall into the 40s areawide.  Then
Monday night, temperatures will be slightly warmer as they range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  56  65  53 /  58  36  34   9
Meridian      71  57  68  52 /  46  32  27   9
Vicksburg     59  53  64  54 /  68  50  32   8
Hattiesburg   78  63  75  56 /  39  28  21  10
Natchez       64  55  65  56 /  56  35  32  10
Greenville    54  49  63  50 /  83  56  21   6
Greenwood     57  52  63  51 /  89  56  23   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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