Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 240516 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1216 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions prevail across the area this early morning. Low
clouds with ceiling reductions to MVFR/IFR are expected to develop
through daybreak, especially across south MS. Visibility
reductions are also possible and most likely at HBG/PIB/MEI.
Conditions should improve quickly by mid-morning with VFR
ceilings/visibilities prevailing through the remainder of the TAF
period. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Local radars continued to show a few light showers over our
southeast across Clarke and Jones counties spreading northwest
into central Mississippi. Hi-res models suggest this activity will
continue a couple more hours before dissipating so have included
pops across our southeast for the next several hours. The
associated cloud cover and rainfall has helped hold up
temperatures and dew points over our southeast as well so have
increased over night low temperatures a degree or two there. The
added low level moisture may also contribute to areas of early
morning fog and stratus but no Advisory is anticipated. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Quiet weather pattern remains over the region and a
forecast of persistence is the best way to go. So, really no changes
from what has been previously forecast with this new package. Only
forecast concern is the morning stratus clouds and patchy fog (over
the SE). Just wanted to make note of the anomalous mid/upper level
high that`s over our region. With H5 heights of mb, this fits
with record height values for this time of year. Thus, not
surprising we`ve been consistently running in the 90-94 degree
range. /CME/

Friday night through Next Week...
All guidance has been pretty much the same over the last couple
of days and will generally stay that way the rest of the week and
into the extended forecast. Hot and dry conditions are still the
main concern especially Friday-Sunday. Some climatology guidance
shows 500mb heights reaching near or at 594mb for days Friday
through Sunday. That is an all time record height level at 500mb
for our CWA during this time. Max temperatures for those days are
peaking between 93-98 degrees in some locations. Nothing will be
added into the HWO at this time seeing as how these values doesn`t
quite meet our heat advisory criteria due to afternoon mixing and
temps/humidity combo keeping us short of the necessary criteria.

For the upcoming work week, conditions will remain hot and dry for
much of the beginning of the week. Model guidance shows a boundary
pushing though Wednesday afternoon bringing in some possible
showers and or thunderstorms. A ridge will still persist some but
will flatten just a tad allowing for heights to drop slightly
and making way for some possible convection to roll through along
with some northeasterly flow as a small trough tries to build in.
Models are in some sort of agreement but newer 12Z guidance backs
off precipitation some at these times in the extended forecast so
some PoPs were accounted for next Wednesday-Thursday but aren`t
really high as there are still uncertainties that far out into
the forecast so continue to monitor for updates. /JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  93  69  94 /   2   0   0   0
Meridian      70  94  71  96 /   3   0   0   0
Vicksburg     70  90  70  91 /   0   1   0   0
Hattiesburg   70  93  69  94 /  11   1   0   0
Natchez       70  91  70  92 /   0   1   1   0
Greenville    72  92  71  93 /   0   1   1   0
Greenwood     71  92  71  92 /   0   1   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

DL/22/CME/JNE



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