Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
000
FXUS64 KJAN 190002
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
702 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Tonight and Tomorrow...
Weather conditions will remain quiet for the short term period with
no major modifications made to the overall forecast. Global
guidance highlights a 1030mb sfc high across the ArkLaMiss region
tonight which will help suppress any low-level moisture from the
Gulf Coast. With light northerly flow, strong radiational cooling
of our cool dry airmass will allow for overnight temperatures to
drop in the upper 20s in the northeast. Elsewhere, nighttime
temperatures will fall into the lower 30s. This will lead to
widespread frost development across our entire CWA along with
several hours of temperatures below freezing. The combination of
frost and freezing temperatures will likely kill unprotected
sensitive vegetation. Given these conditions for tonight, the
Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9AM Tuesday morning.
Heading into tomorrow, weather conditions will remain quiet as the
sfc high slowly shifts east across the ArkLaMiss region.
Sufficient daytime heating combined with the lack of cloud cover
will help afternoon temperatures peak into the upper 50s mainly
for areas north of I-20. Areas south of I-20 will see daytime
highs in the low 60s. /CR/
Tuesday night through Sunday night...A pretty quiet weather
pattern is in store for the ArkLaMs in the long term. Strong high
pressure will be over the region Tuesday night, with slightly warmer
lows in the mid 30s to near 40. High pressure will continue to
prevail on Wednesday, with highs around 70 degrees for most of the
area. A short wave and associated cold front will approach the area
on Thursday and move across the area Thursday through Thursday
night. Currently the global models struggle with moisture with this
system (especially the ECMWF), with the best moisture over the
northern gulf. Both the GFS/ECMWF develop convection over the
northern gulf and limit moisture return during this period. There
could still be some isolated to scattered storms across the area,
but with limited instability, expect any storms that do develop to
remain below severe limits. Will have to continue to monitor this
system, as it is still a few days away and the models may change.
The front will move east of the area early on Friday and high
pressure will build in behind it. A very nice weekend is on tap for
the area under strong high pressure, with highs on Saturday in the
upper 60s to low 70s, climbing into the mid/upper 70s on Sunday./15/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Gusty northerly winds, up to 25mph at times, will persist the next
hour or so through 19/01-02Z, before subsiding & light & variable
overnight. VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.
Widespread frost is expected overnight before clearing after
daybreak. Winds will shift more southwesterly into Tuesday aftn,
generally up to 10mph, with gusts of 15-20mph. /DC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 31 60 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
Meridian 28 61 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Vicksburg 31 60 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 32 62 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Natchez 32 61 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
Greenville 32 59 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
Greenwood 29 58 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
CR/15/DC