Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290327 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
927 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery showed a few mid level clouds just to the north
of the CWA that will drop to the southeast across our northeast
most zones. Otherwise, temperatures were on track and no changes
were needed to the forecast. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Saturday: a reinforcement of the dry airmass has
been taking place this afternoon behind a dry front that moved
through this morning. The surface pressure gradient in its wake
will remain tight enough tonight to prevent winds from completely
decoupling. Thus, despite the clear skies, temperatures will not
fall to their fullest potential by Saturday morning. Though no
widespread frost is expected, minimums will still be able to drop
into the mid 30s.

The dry air will promote efficient warming Saturday as maximums
climb 30 degrees from morning lows reaching near 60 in the northeast
to near 70 in the southwest under full sun. /GG/

Saturday night through Thursday night: With a surface ridge over
the region and northwesterly flow aloft, conditions will be clear
with near normal temperatures of highs in the 60s and lows in the
40s that night. Sunday will be slightly warmer as the surface
ridge shifts eastward and southerly surface flow starts back up.
As a shortwave passes over the region Sunday night into Monday,
showers and some thunderstorms will develop. The pattern for early
next week will be damp as a warm front lifts north through the
area on Monday and sets up along a baroclinic axis from central TX
to TN.

The latest model runs continue to be significantly different,
particularly between the ECMWF and GFS, and this continues to
throw a wrench into the confidence for the Tuesday/Wednesday
system. The ECMWF is much slower with the track of the upper-level
cutoff low into our region versus the much faster GFS which
clears our area of the system completely by Wednesday night. The
global models continue to struggle in their potential phasing of
northern/southern stream and this is making the timing and the
inland push of the warm sector very uncertain. Severe storms
remain a possibility though as deep moisture will be available and
strong shear exists, but should the ECMWF solution pan out, then
a threat for flash flooding will be a a concern as well. With the
most recent ensemble guidance shifting slightly farther south with
heavier rainfall, have enough confidence to introduce a limited
flooding threat over northern portions of the ArkLaMiss region.
Looking ahead, it still looks like much drier air will move in by
the end of the work week the area, at least by Thursday. /10/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will continue through Saturday.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       38  66  44  70 /   0   0   0   3
Meridian      36  65  41  69 /   0   0   0   1
Vicksburg     38  68  46  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   37  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       39  68  46  71 /   0   0   0   7
Greenville    38  63  46  68 /   0   0   0  20
Greenwood     36  63  46  69 /   0   0   0  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

22/GG/EC


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