Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 200235 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
835 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Updated for evening discussion.


Mostly clear skies will prevail for the region tonight.
Low temperatures will be cold tonight ranging from the lower 20s
in the north and mid to high 20s in the south and with the help of
some light winds, wind chills could range anywhere between
15-25F. No changes needed to be made to the previous forecast, as
it was very well on track./JNE/

Prior discussion below:

This Evening through Monday: Northerly winds have gotten breezy
this afternoon, as expected, with a few gusts up to around 35 mph
noted at a couple of the ASOS sites around the region. Gusts
should ease up with the loss of daytime heating, but expect winds
to remain about 5 to 10 mph even through the night as a surface
high centered over the Northern High Plains filters down toward
the south. A persistent mid-level height gradient between a ridge
over the Rockies and trough over the eastern CONUS will keep winds
thoroughly mixed through the atmosphere as well. Therefore have
tried to find a balance for low temperatures tonight, as low-level
mixing will limit the radiational cooling potential typically
afforded by mostly clear skies. The light breeze and chilly temps
overnight will also result in wind chills in the 15 to 25 degrees
through the morning hours Monday. Less windy conditions are
expected tomorrow, with abundant sunshine easing the wintry chill
brought by 10-15 mph winds from the north. Max temperatures are
generally expected to be in the 40s, although infiltrating colder
air in the north may cap off temperatures in the upper 30s around
the US Highway 82 corridor. /NF/

Monday night through next weekend: The cold and dry weather will
continue into Wednesday as a continental polar airmass remains
locked in over the ArkLaMiss region. Temperatures will generally
be around 5 to 8 deg below climatic normal, but there is still some
uncertainty for Tuesday night on how much cirrus will build over
and disrupt nocturnal cooling. If the cirrus is slower/thinner to
move in, then we could see more locations with lows in the lower
20s, and perhaps even some upper teens in northeast portions of
the area...which would be the coldest since early last November.

Global models remain locked in on a trough approaching the region
Wednesday night and bringing increase shower chances as we go
through Thursday/Thursday night, and possibly into Friday.
Overall, the guidance has continued a trend of being less
impressive with any sort of heavy rain set-up as moisture
transport is much more ordinary than it was in recent events, and
the preceding cold/dry airmass will certainly take a lot of
moistening. Of course, the slow-moving nature of the trough could
support significant rainfall amounts in the end, and so would
certainly want to continue monitoring closely given the current
river flooding. Looking ahead to next weekend, we should see
drier and chillier weather return with temperatures fairly typical
for the last week of January. /EC/


00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are prevailing this evening and should continue
through the night. Gusty winds this afternoon will begin to
diminish but sustained speeds will remain around 10kts through the
night out of the north. Winds will be gusty again tomorrow
afternoon with gusts around 20kts once again possible. /28/


Jackson       27  44  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      25  44  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     28  44  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   28  47  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       28  45  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    26  39  25  41 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     24  40  24  42 /   0   0   0   0





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