Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 020733
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
233 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: After a few days of mainly dry conditions, the
atmosphere has begun to moisten up again with GOES-16 TPW > 1.5"
across parts of South MS and LA again this morning. As upper
ridging further breaks down today and with some help from a weak
mid/upper wave over TX/OK in the increasingly moist environment,
isolated to scattered diurnal showers and storms will become more
likely, with the greatest coverage expected over the southeastern
quadrant of the area. Strong storms appear unlikely given
forecast marginal lapse rates and weak shear. Convective activity
may persist into the early evening before tapering down, with
minimal rain chances overnight. Highs today will be near to
slightly above normal, though clouds/ rain may limit insolation
more over S/E MS. Lows tonight will be slightly above normal
thanks to increased cloud cover. /DL/

Wednesday through next Monday...High pressure at the surface will
remain wedged into the region from the west through much of the
period. This will result in both increasing moisture and warmth
across the forecast area through at least the upcoming weekend.
Chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and storms will also
increase during this time. This will be aided a bit Wednesday into
Thursday by a weak shortwave slowly shifting east through the
region.

Ridging aloft will gradually increase across the region through
the weekend and into next Monday, where at a minimum, warm humid
conditions will persist along with mainly afternoon scattered
showers and storms. During this time, eyes across much of the gulf
coast will be on what`s currently Tropical Depression Three over
the Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to become better
organized through the forecast period, as it begins lifting north
into the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

While there is still some uncertainty as to exactly where this
system will track and eventually make landfall, the current suite
of 00Z operational models has the system coming ashore west of the
CWA in the general vicinity of the TX/LA state line. This
scenario would result in more of a minimal impact on the weather
across the ArkLaMiss during the extended portion of the forecast
period. It would likely mean a general increase in cloud cover
across the CWA, in addition to an increase in winds due to a
slightly tighter pressure gradient over the region, as well as
possibly a slight increase in showers and storms over mainly south
central and southwest portions of the CWA Sunday into Monday.
With all of that said, please continue to closely monitor the
latest forecast information on the progression of Tropical
Depression Three from the National Hurricane Center through the
upcoming weekend. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the bulk of the TAF period.
Mid/high cloudiness will continue to increase through today, but
should remain above critical thresholds for the most part. SHRA
will develop across parts of South MS through the morning,
spreading farther north into Central MS and Northeast LA through
the daytime hours, with a few TS also possible. Brief visby
reductions are possible in heavier showers. This activity will
mainly taper off around or shortly after sunset. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  70  87  69 /  28  21  51  32
Meridian      88  69  87  68 /  43  34  53  33
Vicksburg     89  73  89  70 /  20  17  47  29
Hattiesburg   87  70  85  68 /  54  34  61  37
Natchez       87  70  87  69 /  20  19  55  31
Greenville    89  73  88  71 /  20  14  41  27
Greenwood     90  72  88  70 /  23  14  42  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

DL/19


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