Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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FXUS62 KKEY 121519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1119 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Things are quickly quieting down after this morning`s line of
convection that swept through the region. Lingering showers remain
across the distant Florida Straits south of the Lower and Middle
Keys. Behind this line of convection, winds sharply increased to
20 to 25 knots at most of our marine observation sites. They have
since come down but are still near 20 knots. Cloud debris from
earlier storms remains over the island chain but is beginning to
thin out.

Meanwhile, a weak front is still moving southward towards the
Florida Keys. It sits currently across south central Florida. It
hasn`t quite made it to Naples, where they still have a southwest

Short term update - Have made a lot of changes to the short term
forecast for both land based zones and our coastal waters
forecast. Due to a sharp increase in winds behind this line of
convection, have introduced Small Craft Advisories for all waters
until winds decrease late in the afternoon with the weak frontal
passage. Have taken down rain chances for the rest of today to
around 10 percent. Winds are forecast to quickly clock around from
southeast and south to the southwest and west this afternoon.
Given the short duration and this morning`s cloud cover, do not
think the prospects of a cloud line are likely. Will have to
monitor for some weak shower activity that may develop along the
front across mainland Florida and drift over the Upper Keys.
Otherwise, weather should be drying out through the rest of the
week as high pressure settles in across the region.


Fresh southeast to south breezes are occurring across all waters
this morning behind the recent line of convection. Therefore have
introduced a Small Craft Advisory for all waters until winds
decrease later in the afternoon and early evening. Winds will
clock around to the southwest and west this afternoon and further
clock around to the north and northeast overnight as a weak front
passes through. Thereafter winds quickly return to the east and
southeast. Expect a period of gentle to moderate breezes through
the end of the week.


VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 00z
this evening, with FEW to SCT coverage between 010-020 and a BKN
deck at around 080 gradually breaking apart across the island chain
from west to east. Mainly south winds will be sustained 12 to 15
knots through early afternoon, with frequent gusts near 20 knots.
Winds will shift to the west northwest this afternoon, gradually
subsiding to sustained near 10 knots.


GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.



Data Acquisition.....JAM

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