Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 290827
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
427 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under partly cloudy skies and a east to southeast winds of 5 to 10
mph, temperatures are in the lower 80s away from any rainfall
along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting
widely scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and a few outflow
boundaries traversing through our entire area. On our marine
district, winds are east to southeast of 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
During the daytime hours for today through Sunday, forecast
soundings reveal mixed signals with significant pockets of dry air
from 925 mb to 700 mb within a east wind backing to northeast
which would be favorable for cloud line genesis. However, during
the nighttime hours, leftover boundaries, a northerly steering
flow and the western extent of a couple of mid and upper level
impulses passing just east of our area should provide a better
opportunity for a spell or two of rainfall, with the best chance
in the Upper Keys. Outside of any heavy downpours, high
temperatures will average near 90 degrees with overnight lows in
the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Medium range guidance and ensemble members continue
to be inconsistent with the extent of lower pressure
near Central America within the ITCZ. With that, will
retain slightly above climo pops beginning Monday night (40
percent) which is a blend of the ECE/MEX 12 hour rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Away from showers and thunderstorms, light to occasional gentle
winds will prevail on all Keys coastal waters today through
this weekend, hence, no headlines are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
Though VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals for the
next 24 hours, the hard part of the aviation forecast is trying to
time the passage of showers and thunderstorms. What we do know is
that east-southeast low-level flow will continue. In this flow, the
climatologically favored time for convection is during the
overnight and early morning time frame. So convection is likely to
fade after sunrise and then re-awaken late tonight. Given the small
and pulsy nature of convection, residence time near a terminal
should be on the order of about an hour or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1926, the daily record low temperature of 68 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 89 80 89 80 / 10 30 10 30
Marathon 91 80 91 79 / 10 30 10 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....Haner


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