Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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168
FXUS62 KKEY 250230
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A mid to upper level cut off low is working its way west
southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula this evening. A lower
level reflection of this low extends across the Bahamas and Cuba
and is nosing its way westward towards the Keys. With that said,
the Keys is well within the western flank of the above features
through the overnight period. As a result, this evenings sounding
indicated a precipitable water of 1.69 inches, which is slightly
below the climatological mean. Inhibition was quite limited with
ample CAPE. In addition, surface moisture is modest with dew
points in the mid 70s. As a result, convective activity has been
isolated at best through the evening, and mostly driven by old
mainland sourced seabreeze boundaries. Meanwhile, the western end
of an Atlantic ridge extends across Florida. This along with the
usual diurnal pickup is maintaining moderate to fresh easterly
breezes across the area.

After peaking in the next hour or two, expect winds to trend
downwards, becoming gentle to moderate. The Keys will remain on
the western flank of the lower through upper level trough/low
axis. These factors, along with middling deep layered moisture
and modest surface dew points should help to keep convective
coverage limited. With that said, the limited inhibition is
expected to go away, while CAPE will remain more than sufficient.
With that said, there is no reason to adjust the currently
advertised low chance PoPs. Expect overnight lows to range quite
broadly near 80 with dew points holding in the mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The western flank of an Atlantic ridge reaching across the Florida
Peninsula will weaken overnight. As a result, moderate to fresh
northeast to easterly breezes will trend moderately downwards.
Cautions remain in effect until winds diminish for Hawk Channel,
and Florida Straits. No changes planned for the evening marine
update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
With that said, bouts of sub VFR conditions and a thunderstorm or
two cannot be ruled out. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate
out of the east.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....DR

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