Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
010 FXUS62 KKEY 150858 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 458 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is increased confidence for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend into at least early next week. - A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Current rainfall estimates are generally between 2-4" inches, with isolated higher amounts, from Saturday through Tuesday. This could lead to localized flooding, especially at high tide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 457 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 CIMSS products shows mean layer ridging remains in place across the Southeast U.S. extending eastward into the western North Atlantic. The Keys remain on the southern flank of this ridge along with a weak surface trough. Marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording mainly east breezes of 10 to 15 knots. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of 1.8 to 2 inches across the Keys. KBYX radar has been active for much of the night with isolated showers continuing to move west to northwest through the western Straits of SE Gulf between 15 to 20 knots early this morning. In addition, new activity is beginning to develop just north of Cuba south of the Cay Sal Bank drifting northwestward towards the distant Straits. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s and dew points are in the mid 70s. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The aforementioned high will continue to remain in place across the Southeast U.S. today. The high will slowly continue drifting eastward farther into the western North Atlantic while weakening through tonight. This will continue to promote mainly gentle to moderate east breezes, occasionally east to southeast breezes across the Keys with a potential period of moderate to fresh breezes again tonight across the Straits of Florida and potentially the SE Gulf. Plentiful moisture remains in place across the Keys which will keep rain chances elevated today with 40% for today and tonight along the Island Chain. Nonetheless, the heat will be back for today and tonight with highs in the upper 80s and overnight lows remaining quite warm in the lower 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s keeping the heat index values near 100 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 457 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered just off the Southeast coastline will interact with a weak surface trough that remains across the area. This will promote gentle to moderate easterly breezes over the for at least the next 24 hours. Late week, a second, much stronger front, is expected to drive southeastward through the Gulf towards the Florida Keys over the weekend before stalling. Fresh to strong breezes, along with squally conditions, will be possible for the latter part of the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys marine zones by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR conditions are largely expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. There continues to be the risk for passing showers and even a thunderstorm during the TAF period, but, especially during the daylight hours. Therefore, VCSH was included in the TAF for a few hours this morning. Near surface winds will largely remain easterly through the period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2018, the daily record warm low temperature of 82F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, on this day in 2014, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 82 88 79 / 40 40 50 50 Marathon 89 82 89 79 / 40 40 40 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and X at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.x.com/nwskeywest