000
FXUS62 KKEY 271602
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1102 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - Winds are slowly coming down behind the recent cold
front passage, which now rests across western Cuba and stretches
into the Bahamas. Behind this front a secondary surface trough is
slowly trudging southeast along the west coast of Florida. This
is bringing a subtle wind shift, backing winds slightly from the
north to northwest. Behind the cold front, an extensive stratus
deck still remains across the Keys and South Florida. Within this
stratus deck there are some embedded light showers and sprinkles
that are slowly diminishing. Most of this activity is over the
waters north of the island chain. In addition, behind the front a
secondary surface trough is moving southeast along the west coast
of Florida. This is bringing a subtle wind shift, backing winds
slightly from the north to northwest. Temperature wise, it`s mind
60s in the Upper and Middle Keys, with upper 60s to near 70 in
the Lower Keys. Dew points are at a comfortable upper 50s.

Short term update - Changes mostly focused across our coastal
waters this morning and afternoon. Winds are slow to diminish due
to the cloud cover over the southern mainland. The clouds are
preventing sunlight to penetrate through and therefore not
allowing the mainland to heat up as quickly. This in turn is
slowing the development of a thermal trough which would decrease
winds downstream across the Florida Bay, eastern Hawk Channel, and
eastern Florida Straits waters. As such, Small Craft Advisories
will have to continue into this afternoon until winds sufficiently
decrease below advisory thresholds. Otherwise, no changes needed
or planned to the going forecast. A reinforcing cold front
Saturday will keep temperatures below normal through Sunday. A
surface high pressure cell located over the northwest Gulf will
translate eastward through the weekend and finally emerge over
the western North Atlantic late Sunday. This will shift winds to
the east and allow for warmer air to return with above normal
temperatures by Tuesday. Rain chances will be less than 10 percent
through the weekend and could creep up to near 10 percent by mid-
week next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories (SCA) continue for all waters this
afternoon. Winds will decrease by late afternoon and early evening
to allow for the SCA to be dropped in favor of a Small Craft
Exercise Caution headline for all waters. Thereafter, winds will
periodically freshen and lull through at least Saturday. High
pressure along the northern and northwestern Gulf coast will
shift eastward over the Florida Peninsula by Sunday, causing
breezes to shift to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs are expected to continue through the early part of the
afternoon before becoming VFR. There will be continued cross wind
impacts at both EYW and MTH through the period, though winds will
be diminishing by tonight.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Collection......NB

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