Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
168 FXUS62 KKEY 250230 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 A mid to upper level cut off low is working its way west southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula this evening. A lower level reflection of this low extends across the Bahamas and Cuba and is nosing its way westward towards the Keys. With that said, the Keys is well within the western flank of the above features through the overnight period. As a result, this evenings sounding indicated a precipitable water of 1.69 inches, which is slightly below the climatological mean. Inhibition was quite limited with ample CAPE. In addition, surface moisture is modest with dew points in the mid 70s. As a result, convective activity has been isolated at best through the evening, and mostly driven by old mainland sourced seabreeze boundaries. Meanwhile, the western end of an Atlantic ridge extends across Florida. This along with the usual diurnal pickup is maintaining moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the area. After peaking in the next hour or two, expect winds to trend downwards, becoming gentle to moderate. The Keys will remain on the western flank of the lower through upper level trough/low axis. These factors, along with middling deep layered moisture and modest surface dew points should help to keep convective coverage limited. With that said, the limited inhibition is expected to go away, while CAPE will remain more than sufficient. With that said, there is no reason to adjust the currently advertised low chance PoPs. Expect overnight lows to range quite broadly near 80 with dew points holding in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 The western flank of an Atlantic ridge reaching across the Florida Peninsula will weaken overnight. As a result, moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes will trend moderately downwards. Cautions remain in effect until winds diminish for Hawk Channel, and Florida Straits. No changes planned for the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. With that said, bouts of sub VFR conditions and a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest