Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1145 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Western US upper ridge has built firmly onto the High Plains
today as the main upper low reached the Delmarva region. Surface
high pressure has slowly been drifting east across the Sandhills,
with the panhandle entering southerly return flow and north central
Neb recording light north winds this afternoon. The sky has been
virtually cloud free across the region other than a few cirrus in
SoDak upstream of a weak shortwave.

Tonight... South/southwest flow strengthens overnight (mainly above
the inversion) with a thermal ridge moving onto the High Plains. H85
temps rise to near 12C by dawn, which suggests a fairly mild night.
Went with the warmer end of guidance, generally a MAV/ECS blend,
resulting in lower 20s Platte Valley to mid 20s Sandhills. One
concern is patchy fog, mainly for Hayes, Frontier, and Lincoln
Counties. Surface winds remain light (under 5 kts) while dew points
stay at or near the air temp and a snowpack remains for portions of
the area. Confidence isn`t great given a primarily southerly wind,
but HRRR, SREF, and NAMnest hint at some development.

Monday and Monday night... The ridge progresses east as a new trough
digs into the Rockies/Four Corners region. The surface high also
pushes into the Upper Midwest while a sfc trough lines up in the
western panhandle. Continued southwest flow at H85 and weak WAA will
likely result in the mildest day in the past couple weeks. High
clouds also increase as the upper trough approaches, but should hold
off until after peak heating. Nudged highs up area wide to near
or just above 50F given mostly clear skies and slightly better
mixing. Temps may still be a touch cool though, as MAV guidance
suggests mid/upper 50s and highs reached the upper 40s today with
light winds. Mon night lows will be even milder due to downslope
flow and thicker cloud cover. Forecast temps in the upper 20s to
lower 30s are about 15 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

A models show a weak cold front moving through Tuesday which should
take high temperatures down a few degrees.

A strong storm will develop across the eastern U.S. Thursday. The
developing storm will drive a strong Pacific cold front through
Nebraska Wednesday. The concern is wind speeds across wrn/ncntl
Nebraska. The NAM, ECM and GFS models suggest speeds of 20-30 mph
with the higher speeds across wrn Nebraska. The models also show
Black Hills convergence across northwest Nebraska and the
convergence appears to be the driving force for a chance of rain or
snow showers Wednesday. POPs are slight chance as moisture should be
fairly limited.

The forecast is dry and mild Friday. A second low pressure system
will move through srn Canada Friday and this should draw warm back
across the Rockies. The Canada low will send another strong cold
front through the wrn and ncntl Nebraska Saturday with cooler air
lasting into Sunday.

The temperature forecast uses the model blend plus bias correction.
This had little impact on daytime temperatures but nudged low
temperatures down a few degrees in the Platte valley.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the next day.
Winds remain light and variable with only scattered high clouds
around during the day Monday. There is a low chance of fog
development at KLBF early Monday morning. Have put some light
patchy fog into the forecast for KLBF through about 13Z Monday.




SHORT TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Kulik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.