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000
FXUS63 KLBF 211146
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving across central
Nebraska this morning. They are forming along a surface trough
currently centered over western Nebraska. This will not be a
significant precipitation event. Some thunderstorms may be dry,
posing the threat of wildfires started via cloud to ground
lightning. Instability associated with a southwesterly low level jet
and westerly upper level jet is helping to sustain the storms as
they move across the state. Storm activity should taper off by mid-
morning.

The main weather pattern continues to be a large upper level ridge
over the central U.S. At the surface, a trough sits over western
Nebraska, which will remain in the area through Tuesday. After the
chances for precipitation this morning, precipitation chances
lessen to zero for the remainder of the short term. Winds will be
10 knots or less out of the south across the area once the surface
trough diminishes. Fire weather is a concern due to RH values in
the 20s across much of the Panhandle, Sandhills, and southwest
Nebraska today and tomorrow, but the lack of strong winds will
lessen the threat.

Skies will continue to remain hazy due to fires across the western
U.S., notably developing fires in southern Wyoming and northern
Colorado. The HRRR smoke model shows some surface smoke from these
newer fires moving into the Nebraska Panhandle. Elevated smoke from
the WY/CO fires will move east with the prevailing wind pattern
through the state of Nebraska and beyond. Elevated smoke from fires
in California will reach Nebraska and contribute to the hazy skies
as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

The upper level ridge pattern will maintain its strength over the
area through the rest of the workweek. Temperatures will be in the
80s for most of the area, possibly the low 90s in southwest
Nebraska. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected at this time
due to widespread RH in the 20s for portions of western Nebraska,
but winds will remain fairly light.

Late on Friday and into the weekend an upper level trough will move
through the Great Plains. At the same time, a surface cold front
will move through Nebraska from the northwest, bringing high
temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s over the weekend. These
temperatures are far more seasonal compared to high temperatures
over the previous week. Slight chances for precipitation exist for
northern Nebraska late on Friday and early on Saturday but
substantial rainfall is not expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Isolated light rain showers will move across southwest and the
central Sandhills this morning. A few lightning strikes are
possible and may affect the KLBF terminal until 14Z. Winds through
tongiht will remain light south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Meltzer
AVIATION...Roberg