Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191151 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

A rather complex weather set up today. Morning shower and
thunderstorm activity should decrease across southwest and central
Nebraska. Then this afternoon large scale ascent will overspread the
area as a large upper level low begins to approach from the Rockies.
Appears a mid level front extending southwest to northeast across
the area will be the focus for thunderstorm development late this
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms should develop in a favorable
upslope environment across the higher terrain across the western
High Plains. Storms should congeal into a large MCS across northern
KS and southern NE this evening, aided by strong northward moisture
transport feeding into the area on southerly low level jet. GEFS has
been consistent in developing a convection induced closed low at H7
late tonight across central Nebraska. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible across central and eastern portions of north central
Nebraska tonight. Three hour flash flood guidance is high where the
heaviest rainfall is expected, on the order of 2.5 to 4 inches in
three hours, so leaning away from issuing a flood watch with this
forecast package. Some rainfall is expected where flash flood
guidance is a bit lower across portions of southwest and northwest
Nebraska, but here HREF 6 hour mean QPF is generally under 1 inch,
so don`t feel that flooding is likely. Checking stream gauges across
far southwest Nebraska, it would appear that the local creeks have
handled the recent rainfall well, with little to no rises noted.
Will pass along to the day shift to take another look, and evaluate
some of the short term hi-res model guidance for possible heavy rain
centers that may materialize tonight.

Otherwise expect a mostly cloudy day. It will remain rather muggy
with dew points in the 60s, but temperatures will be mild, with
highs generally in the 70s except middle to upper 60s across
northwest Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The center of upper level low pressure will remain nearly stationary
across eastern Nebraska Wednesday into Wednesday night. A warm
moist trowal sets up just to the north and west of the low
pressure center across northeast into portions of north central
and central Nebraska. heavy rainfall will likely occur in these
areas, with WPC highlighting that area with 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall. Appears it will likely be a steady moderate to heavy
rain with embedded thunderstorms wrapping back west and southwest
around the eastern Nebraska upper low center. Farther west and
south of this area across portions of the Sandhills into western
and southwest Nebraska, an inch or so of rainfall will be
possible. The upper low will drift south into northeast KS by
Thursday morning, then shift east away from the area later
Thursday. This will bring an end to the rain for most of the area
by Thursday afternoon. A break in the rainfall is expected
Thursday night through Friday, then another upper level low
pressure system will drop southeast from the northern Rockies over
the weekend. High amounts of moisture will also be available for
this system to work with, so it`s possible additional heavy rain
could develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Thunderstorms spreading northeast of Interstate 80 this morning.
Storms will redevelop this afternoon over southwest Nebraska
between KIML and KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power



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