310
FXUS63 KLBF 182333
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening,
  potential for a strong to severe storm

- Greater chance for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon
  and evening

- Brief warming trend Mon. and Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The main concern in the short term is the chance for a
strong to severe thunderstorm this evening and Saturday. For this
evening, expect any convection to hold off until after 5pm CT as the
LLJ kicks in, however several models have this LLJ fairly weak and a
little east of the CWA leading to lower confidence in storm
development. If convection develops it will be near a stationary
front across northwest Nebraska and then spread eastward. There is
good moisture convergence out ahead of the front, MU CAPE values
around 1500-2000 J/kg +, although forcing is weak which leads to
lower confidence in storm development. The setup is fairly
conditional, however given the environment if a storm was to go up
it has a favorable environment for a strong to severe storm to
sustain itself once it develops, across the northern Sandhills.

Saturday looks to be the greatest potential for scattered
thunderstorm to develop. The expected mode of storm development is
supercellular and would expect development to be fairly rapid. MU
CAPE is around 1900 to 3000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35-50 kts
along with lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 C/km. Expect any supercell to be
capable of large hail, which will be the main hazard, with the
secondary hazard of damaging winds. Storms could also have the
potential for localized heavy rainfall with pwats around l.5 inches
for the area. There is also the risk for tornadic development as
well this would be in the vicinity of where the warm front exist. At
this time there is some uncertainty on how far north the frontal
boundary will move.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Temperatures will warm up early in the week as a upper
level ridge builds in across the Central CONUS with highs reaching
the 90s Mon. and Tue. Flow starts to turn more quasi-zonal mid-week
with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. As for precipitation
chances in the long term there will be low-end daily
precipitation chances as weak disturbances move across the High
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Scattered thunderstorm development is possible this evening and
tonight across western and north central Nebraska, with brief
MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. These storms will
persist into the overnight hours, ending prior to sunrise
Saturday. By early Saturday morning, low stratus will expand
across northern Nebraska, leading to IFR/locally LIFR CIGs.
Patchy fog is also expected, with MVFR/locally IFR visibilities
through late Saturday morning. This stratus will gradually
erode, with a return of VFR into Saturday afternoon.

Winds shift easterly tonight, with at around 10 to 15kts. Winds
then shift southeasterly into Saturday, at around 10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Brown