Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250153
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
853 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

.UPDATE...
(Issued 853 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

Showers continue to decrease in coverage across central Wisconsin
this evening. Expect this trend continue as they push off to the
east and northeast.

Boxell

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 338 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

Tonight through Friday night:

New shower and tstorm development has occurred over sw WI near the
core of the shortwave trough and associated PVA, warm advection,
and frontogenesis. South central WI will see some of this activity
possibly into the early evening before ending. For later tonight
and Sat AM, the stationary front over central WI will lift nwd as
low pressure approaches from the nrn Great Plains through Fri nt.
This brings another surge of warm advection on breezy sly winds
for Fri. Temps will warm into the upper 70s with mild low temps
for tnt and Fri nt. Removed small chances for rain Fri nt as the
shortwave trough will move across the Lake Superior region with a
lack of lift and saturation for srn WI.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 338 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

Saturday through Thursday:

A 500mb trough will provide impetus for a low pressure system
during this weekend. This low pressure system may provide a
glancing blow of precipitation along a cold front over central
Wisconsin as it slides to our northeast Saturday night into early
Sunday morning, but most of the area will likely remain dry with
some gusty winds during this time period. The cold front will
then linger to our southwest, providing additional chances for
spotty showers during the day on Sunday before exiting Monday.
This front will mark the beginning of the end of our warm weather
as well with highs around 70 on Sunday, and then highs around 60
on Monday.

Tuesday, an amplification of the 500mb troughing aloft will spin
up another surface low and drag another cold front over the Great
Lake Region. Showers and cool daytime highs in the 50`s will be
in store for the middle of next week as this system passes by.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 853 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

VFR should generally prevail through the overnight hours, though
some patchy fog isn`t out of the question, especially in those
locations that saw some rain earlier today. This is generally west
and north of Madison. Friday should be another warm and breezy
day, with winds from the southwest. VFR will continue.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 853 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

South to southwest winds are expected across the lake on
Friday, with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range across the northern
half of the lake. For the nearshore waters, a Small Craft Advisory
might be needed for areas off of Sheboygan, though the potential
is 50/50 at most right now, so will hold off at this point.

Low pressure will move into the area later Saturday, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of a cold front. South to southwest
winds may approach gale force across the open waters Saturday
afternoon and evening, with Small Craft Conditions likely for the
nearshore. Winds become more westerly for Sunday behind the front.

It still looks like a couple of strong cold fronts will pass
through the area early to mid week next week, which may result in
a prolonged period of gusty north to northwest winds, with periods
of gales possible.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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