Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 230930
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
530 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Light showers possible today south of the PA border but
elsewhere dry conditions will prevail. Temperatures will remain
slightly below normal. More widespread rain and few storms is
then expected through the first half of the work week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Most areas will continue to experience dry, but cloudy weather
today outside of light precipitation primarily south of
Pittsburgh with a crossing jet streak and upper level
disturbance. Daytime highs will be warmer...but still below
normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation chances will increase tonight as a moisture
advection increases and a shortwave approaches in southwesterly
flow. Widespread PoPs will return to the entire area on
Monday... especially Monday afternoon... with continued moisture
advection and synoptic lift.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled conditions will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday
along with slightly above seasonal temperatures ahead of a cold
front that will sweep through Wednesday. Winds aloft raise the
possibility of stronger storms Tuesday as the warm front lifts
north over the region and Wednesday as the associated cold front
crosses. However, instability appears to be the limiting factor
at this time. All in all between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain are
forecast across the region through Wednesday...based off
ensemble guidance and top analogs.

Dry weather will briefly return Wednesday night and Thursday
before a second cold front moves across the area on Friday,
bringing slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the
period, with a few exceptions. Generally easterly flow will
persist across the region ahead of an approaching warm front.
Showers/low ceilings ahead of this boundary will likely degrade
conditions to MVFR for the MGW terminal for much of the day.
The boundary along with its associated showers/lower ceilings
will gradually lift north of the Mason-Dixon, but not expected
to affect other terminals until Monday. For FKL and HLG, fog may
cause IFR/LIFR restrictions this morning, but should clear up
shortly after sunrise.


Outlook...
The next chance for general restrictions for all TAF sites is
expected Monday evening into Tuesday as a warm front approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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