Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 251513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
914 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. A quick update this morning to
expire the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory. See the previous
discussion below for further information. Huston

Temperatures tonight will again drop to below freezing in many
valley locations but will wait to see how widespread the hard freeze
before issuing any further highlights. Other than the cold overnight
temperatures little other impacts in short term. A warming trend
will begin in earnest Wednesday with temperatures well above normal
by Thursday. Expect no precipitation to occur. Winds will increase a
bit Wednesday and Thursday with some 10 to 15 mph speeds expected. GK

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.
Models indicating a Pacific system perhaps bringing some rain
showers to southeast Idaho Saturday night into Sunday and have
highest precipitation chances in grids in that period. Both GFS
and European have another system with some precipitation Tuesday.
Low confidence in long term period and how much precipiation will
actually fall. Will have well above normal temperatures Friday
through the weekend with some potential cooling early next week
with the next system. GK

.AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the
period in a dry northwesterly flow. RS

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry northwesterly flow pattern will persist over
southeastern Idaho through Saturday morning, but not without some
little changes. The middle and upper slopes of the Southern Sawtooth
and Caribou Forest areas will show little humidity recovery
overnight, Max humidity should be in the 20 to 30 percent range
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings. Wind gusts on Franklin
Basin Friday afternoon should be as high as 30 mph with afternoon
humidity near 14 percent. Otherwise were not seeing critical winds
before the weekend. Still looking to the weekend for any changes
with the blocking/stagnating activity off shore. Model runs this
morning favoring tracking moisture through the Salmon-Challis NF on
the way to Montana, leaving a lot of the Sawtooth, Caribou and
Targhee on the dry side. RS


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