Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 242029
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
229 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...Residual moist and unstable air remains over
southeastern Idaho this afternoon despite attempts to build a high
pressure ridge. A surface trough extending from a low in southern
Alberta trails southward into the Central Mountains towards
Mackay, helping to fire a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon. Middle level winds are also converging along the
South Central Highlands. Precipitable water values still around
.75 inch, so a few storm cells may produce brief heavy rain
around .10 inch. Most of this activity should end with sunset. A
new disturbance moving into California beginning Friday morning
with strong jet stream winds on the east side advancing into the
west side of the state by afternoon. Exit region of the jet will
support a few strong thunderstorms with hail and strong gusty
winds. Question is will they reach out Central Mountains. Latest
models hold activity a little more to the west side. Will have to
be on alert for areas north of Stanley. This same disturbance
makes slow progress across Nevada and Utah this weekend. Saturday
should be an active day in the Central Mountains again and
southward to Oakley/Almo area. Moisture wraps around the low and
over southeastern Idaho for possible a heavy precipitation day
Sunday and again on Monday. RS


.LONG TERM...Memorial Day through next Thursday. We are looking at a
decent shot of moisture continuing to plague Memorial Day weekend
weather. The accumulative amounts of precipitation will likely drive
river and stream levels higher across the board, adding to the
potential for additional or intensified flooding in some areas. The
low will finally clear us by Tuesday, but there will still be plenty
of heat and humidity around for yet another round of showers and
storms. Beyond that, the end of the month looks stormy as one or
more storms move in and through the western U.S. This will keep
things active for us. Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms are in
the forecast once again today. Friday looks to be a bit drier, but
we`re not completely without the threat of some isolated afternoon
thunderstorms, particularly over the Central Mountains. We resume a
wet weather pattern Saturday and Sunday with another upper low
dropping into UT/NV. Showers and wet thunderstorms should keep
humidity rather high. A chance of showers continues through most of
next week with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.
Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...We are expecting VCTS or -SHRA VCTS at the very least
for our TAF sites through this evening. We will be monitoring trends
to see if we need to amend for periods of -TSRA. Expect locally
heavy rain, which could drive ceilings or visibility lower. We also
could see gusts over 25kts and/or small hail with stronger storms.
Overnight, we should see showers come to an end and have linger mid
level clouds across eastern Idaho. We don`t expect any low ceilings
or fog to impact airports at the moment. Showers and storms return
tomorrow, which COULD impact KSUN and KDIJ. It looks storm-free for
KBYI, KPIH and KIDA for now. Where we do see things develop, it
will be more of the same weather-wise. Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$



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