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000
FXZS60 NSTU 180110
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
210 PM SST Wed Oct 17 2018

.Short term TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...RAOB from this
afternoon (18/00Z) shows dry patches from mid to upper levels.
However, the high pressure to the south continues to transport
moderate to strong trades with embedded showers through tonight.
Additionally, latest model solutions show a ridge associated with
this high pressure just south moving across the territory at least
Thursday night. Tighter and steeper pressure gradients also shows
the enhancement of convections and increased tradewind speeds.
Expect periods of scattered to numerous showers with a chance of
thunderstorms tonight through the rest of the forecast package.
Will continue to monitor this event as the chances of flash
flooding and high winds are increased throughout the forecast and
therefore may be warranted.

.Long term SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...The high pressure to the
south will continue to dominate weather conditions at the
beginning of the long term forecast. A trough near the Fiji
Islands will migrate towards the Samoan Islands and is expected to
bring heavy showers at least Saturday night through the new week.
Winds will also slightly diminish to gentle to moderate
easterlies Sunday. Expect numerous showers to persist through the
long term forecast.

&&

.Marine...A large southerly swell continues to embrace shorelines
through the new week. Combined seas of 9 to 12 feet will remain
across the territory through tonight before subsiding to 7 to 9
feet Thursday morning to Saturday night. Expect seas to briefly
build again to 9 to 12 feet on Sunday with the onset of the
increased tradewinds. Sea heights will then subside again to 7 to
9 feet Sunday night through the rest of the period. PacIOOs
Aunu`u Wave buoy is currently reporting 10 feet and higher with
long periods. Therefore, will continue advisories for high surfs
and small crafts through Monday.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
.A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

JT