Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 231010
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
210 AM PST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures will dominate through at least next
week as low pressure remains over the West. A weak system Saturday
will bring breezy conditions along with a few snow showers,
generally north of Interstate 80. Another stronger system is
possible Monday into Tuesday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
Based on radar and satellite observations as of 2AM, it appears
that lake effect snow showers are likely impacting areas south of
Pyramid Lake and Lake Tahoe early this morning. These showers will
likely result in additional snow accumulations for areas between
Highways 447 and 445 with some showers reaching as far south as
Spanish Springs and Interstate 80 between Sparks and Fernley this
morning. For LES off of Lake Tahoe, expect additional snowfall
accumulations between Meyers and as far east as Minden
Gardnerville and Highway 395. Several multi-car accidents occurred
yesterday evening with just a little ice and snow on the roads,
so take caution and SLOW DOWN on your early morning commute today.

The trough that brought the intermittent snow showers yesterday
gradually drops southeast across southern Nevada and northern
Arizona today with only limited chances for showers, mainly for
Mineral and Mono counties through this afternoon. Otherwise today
will be a break in the weather systems before the weekend with brisk
north flow in place.

Saturday still features a a quick moving brush-by system that will
pass through northern and eastern Nevada. Although a few snow
showers will be possible north of Interstate 80, the main impact for
most areas of western Nevada and northeast California will be breezy
conditions. Breezy conditions with wind gusts ranging from 30 to 40
mph will make for a chilly Saturday, especially for the high Sierra.

Sunday will be a relatively quiet weather day as a very brief
shortwave ridge moves over the Sierra and western Nevada. By Sunday
afternoon, upper level winds will increase in advance of the next
storm for Monday. -Edan

.LONG TERM...Monday and beyond...
The cold and active weather pattern will continue next week as a
ridge remains over the Pacific around 140-160W. This will allow the
storm track to continue out of the north and keep temperatures below
normal with chances for snow. Models are showing increasing
confidence with the storm Monday while confidence in timing and
track of systems Wednesday and beyond remains low. There are
indications that we may see another system Thursday/Friday with the
00Z ECMWF indicating a rather prolonged period of cold and snow. We
will focus mainly on the storm Monday.

Both the GFS/ECMWF are a bit faster bringing the next trough
southward along the Pacific Northwest coast Sunday/Sunday night and
then into CA-NV Monday before closing off across southern CA Monday
night in response to strong northerly upper level jet on troughs
back side. This system is much like the others we have seen and does
not contain a tremendous amount of moisture. However its track is a
little farther west and forcing along front will be the primary
forcing for snow east of the Sierra with the upslope component more
favorable for moderate snowfall closer to the crest. Latest timing
brings the front southward to about a KSVE-KWMC line around 12Z
Monday, into the I-80 and Highway 50 corridors between 12Z-18Z
Monday, and finally moving across Mono-Mineral Counties Monday
afternoon and evening. Current projections for snowfall amounts
range from a couple inches in the lower elevations to as much as a
foot at the crest. Gusty west winds ahead of the front will switch
around to the north behind the front with rather blustery
conditions Monday afternoon. Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...
Drier air will be working into the region today in the wake of
exiting upper trough. Some low clouds and scattered light snow
showers will continue to dot the eastern Sierra from Markleeville
southward to KMMH - most pronounced terrain obscuration through 20Z
with gradually improving conditions thereafter. Clouds and light
snow from lake effect bands will also produce some low clouds/light
snow this morning around KTVL where some additional light
accumulations are possible.

Brisk north winds will develop over the higher ridges today and
before turning to the northwest tonight and Saturday and remaining
gusty ahead of a shortwave system that will brush the region to the
north and east. A few snow showers are possible Saturday mainly
across northeast CA and northern NV. Hohmann
&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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