Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 202156
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
256 PM PDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Much warmer temperatures are expected through next week with
mainly dry conditions. A passing wave on Sunday will bring low
chances for thunderstorms, mainly towards the Oregon border. Low
pressure developing off the California coast will bring more
widespread chances for showers for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A beautiful spring weekend will unfold over the next couple days!
Pleasant days with warm afternoons and cool mornings. Temperatures
on Saturday and Sunday will get into the upper 70s for western
Nevada, with 60s in the Sierra. Temperatures will be running about
10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, but it`s not
that unusual for us to see these warmer temperatures in April so
we are well short of records. May 1st is typically the first day
we see 80 degrees in Reno, so we are getting into that time of
year. Warm temperatures are also going to bring an increase in
snow melt and increasing flows to rivers and streams coming out of
the Sierra. No flooding is expected, but people should prepare
themselves for very fast moving and very cold water in the rivers
and streams over the next several days and coming weeks.

A fast-moving shortwave will brush across the Oregon border on
Sunday, bringing an increase in winds to the region with gusts up
to 25-30 mph in the afternoon. Also, there is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms for areas north of Susanville-Lovelock
as this wave may have just enough energy to kick off a few
isolated storms in the afternoon/evening hours. Another beautiful
day is expected on Monday as well, with warm temperatures and
light winds. -Hoon

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

Well above normal temperatures are expected for the middle of next
week under south flow. A cut-off low will remain off the coast
Tuesday through Thursday and now the GFS/EC and their ensembles are
in good agreement with the slower movement. This would allow the
south flow to continue for those days with temps into the low 80s
for parts of Western NV, with the Sierra valleys in the 60s to near
70.

The south flow will also allow instability to build over the Sierra
and into extreme Western Nevada for mid-week. It appears Tuesday
may remain a little too stable at this time for any thunderstorms,
but buildups are likely in the Sierra, Sweetwaters and Pine Nuts.
Did keep a slight chance of a thunderstorm north and south of Lake
Tahoe for now. Wednesday and Thursday look better with thunderstorms
forming over the Sierra and progressing perhaps 40 miles or so
into Nevada during the late afternoon and evening. The south flow
is favorable enough for this propagation. Thursday does look like
the better day.

Friday, the GFS and EC are in better agreement with the low starting
to eject north and east. At this time, it looks like the core of the
low will remain north and west, instead of moving into Central NV.
With that trajectory, a southwest flow may limit convection,
especially over the Sierra with the best chance into Northeast CA
and Northwest NV downwind of Lassen Peak. There is still a chance of
the low having a further south trajectory. Therefore, kept at least
a slight chance for all areas with the best chances across the north.
X

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through the weekend with generally light winds. Winds will
become east at up to 10 kts Saturday afternoon, with a more west
breeze expected Sunday afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible
north of a KSVE to KLOL line Sunday afternoon and evening. The
threat for storms is there for the middle of next week as well
near the 395 corridor. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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