Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 172115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
315 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Another round of thunderstorms have developed across the CWA
with the strongest storms once again across Johnson County where
the best capes are. These storms are in response to the strong
westerly difluent flow and shortwave trough tracking east across
the area today. With juicy dew points still pooling over areas
east of the divide in the 50s, we can expect some good rainers
out of these T storms through this evening. Estimated rainfall
estimates have been up to 0.86 inches so far in Johnson County.
There is a prominent circulation showing up on satl over Southwest
Montana which appears responsible for the enhanced thunderstorm
activity currently taking place in the far west. These
thunderstorms should persist well into this evening as the mid
level circulation tracks east, just north of the Northern Wyoming
border as this circulation becomes more organized.

Then as a small flat ridge builds into the west, we should have a
mostly precip free day for Wednesday along with warmer and drier

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

West flow aloft will be over western and central Wyoming with the
polar front to the north over northern Montana and high pressure
to the south over the Great Basin. Temperatures will be normal to
above normal with generally dry conditions. Saturday may start a
period of a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially
 in the western and northern mountains. With the monsoon moisture to
the south over the Great Basin the south will be brushed by convection
but the extended models keep the brunt of the moisture to the south
over Utah and Northwest Colorado. Overall the temperatures remain in
a rather narrow band through the extended forecast cooling Saturday
through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Scattered thunderstorms, mainly over the north half of Wyoming,
will persist well into this evening. Many of these storm cells
will produce locally heavy rainfall resulting in local IFR
conditions. KCPR and KBYG will be under the gun for a slight risk
of large hail and damaging winds through this evening.
Some of these storms will persist after 06Z this evening. VFR
conditions are expected for Wednesday.


Issued AT 126 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Another round of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon; storms
will be scattered in the north and east and more isolated
southwest. There is a slight risk of severe weather in eastern
Wyoming. Relative humidities will be moderate and temperatures
comparable to yesterday. Brisk west to northwest winds however,
are expected to continue for the rest of today in the south and
west by this afternoon. The minimum relative humidity will be in
the mid teens in zone 279 for the rest of this afternoon. The
remainder of the work week looks to be mostly dry.




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