Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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994
FXUS61 KRNK 030745
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
245 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure across the Northeast will wedge down east of the
Blue Ridge, keeping temperatures near normal today, despite
mostly sunny skies and dry air. No rainfall is expected for
several days until a cold front approaches the region midweek.
Temperatures next week will be well above normal as upper level
ridging settles across the eastern conus, and the wedging east
of the Blue Ridge breaks down.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday

Key message:

1) Temperatures will be slightly above normal today, with mostly
clear skies expected after the mid morning hours.


Surface high pressure will slowly slide east today from the eastern
Great Lakes region to the Northeast by this afternoon. This will
enhance wedging across the Piedmont, with northeast wind continuing
across these areas today. This will keep high temperatures in the
low to mid 60s areawide, with higher terrain west of the Blue Ridge
expected to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds west of the
Blue Ridge will predominantly remain easterly to southeasterly at
around 5-10 mph. Overall, with surface high pressure maintaining
influence over the region once again today, expect mostly sunny
skies, and pleasant fall like temperatures across the region.


&&


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

1) High pressure will shift east early in the week, allowing for
gradual warmup as winds shift more from the southeast.

2) Dry weather forecast for Monday, with increasing chances for
showers by Wednesday as a cold front approaches.

3) Will continue to watch for possible development of low pressure
in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Will start the workweek off with an upper ridge along the east coast
of the U.S., while a deep trough/cutoff low digs near the Four
Corner region. Closer to the surface, high pressure sliding east
from coastal New England on Monday will maintain a cool east-
northeasterly windflow in the morning that will shift more from the
east-southeast as the day progresses. After a dry day, the
increasingly southeasterly wind shift will begin to tap deeper
moisture from the Carolina coast, making for increasing low clouds
Monday night into Tuesday morning, possibly with drizzle or light
showers developing along the crest of the Blue Ridge. This pattern
of southeasterly windflow will hold in place through Wednesday
night, allowing for increasing chances of disorganized shower
activity by the middle of the week as a cold front approaches from
the west.

With upper level ridging holding in place through the period,
temperatures will go through a gradual warming trend, with highs in
the 60s on Monday, in the 60s to low 70s on Tuesday, and in the
upper 60s to the 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will fall into the
40s Monday night, and into the 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

By the time Wednesday night arrives, we`ll be keeping an eye out for
the potential of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There`s
low confidence at this point where this low pressure will track or
how strong it will be. Will continue to monitor for any development
of this low pressure as the week progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

1) A cold front will pass southward across the Mid-Atlantic on
Thursday.

2) Likely dry for much of Thursday into Friday as high pressure
passes across the Great Lakes. Increasing moisture for Saturday.

3) Temperatures expected to remain well above normal.

A cold front will pass south across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday,
resulting in a northerly wind shift as high pressure shifts east
across the Great Lakes region, ushering in drier air that will
diminish rainfall chances through Friday. However, rain chances will
increase again heading into the weekend as deep low pressure across
the southern Rockies begins to shift east across the central Plains,
which will allow Gulf moisture to lift northward into the central
U.S. Confidence remains low at this time as to how far east the
moisture will advance or how much rainfall it will produce.
Regardless, temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through the
period, with afternoon highs generally in the mid 60s to the low
70s, while overnight lows will fall into the 40s and 50s. These
temperatures are 10-15 degrees above normal for early November.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...

VFR flight conditions are currently being observed across all
terminals this evening. LWB could experience some MVFR to LIFR restrictions
over the next several hours, and through sunrise as river
valley fog may encroach into the terminals vicinity. This could
similarly occur at BCB; however, restrictions are only expected
to drop to MVFR levels, and confidence is not high in them
developing. Outside of these restrictions at both sites, VFR
conditions look to prevail at all other terminals. Northeasterly
winds are expected to become easterly to southeasterly across
the higher terrain terminals at around 5-10 knots; however, look
to remain northeasterly at both DAN and LYH as wedging remains
across the Piedmont.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Early next week will continue to see mainly VFR conditions, with
morning fog possible at BCB and LWB each day.

By Wednesday and Thursday, a frontal system approaches the region
with showers possible. These will likely be confined to LWB/BLF,
possibly lowering flight conditions under VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/JCB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...EB/BMG