Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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994 FXUS61 KRNK 030745 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 245 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Northeast will wedge down east of the Blue Ridge, keeping temperatures near normal today, despite mostly sunny skies and dry air. No rainfall is expected for several days until a cold front approaches the region midweek. Temperatures next week will be well above normal as upper level ridging settles across the eastern conus, and the wedging east of the Blue Ridge breaks down. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/... As of 200 AM EST Sunday Key message: 1) Temperatures will be slightly above normal today, with mostly clear skies expected after the mid morning hours. Surface high pressure will slowly slide east today from the eastern Great Lakes region to the Northeast by this afternoon. This will enhance wedging across the Piedmont, with northeast wind continuing across these areas today. This will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s areawide, with higher terrain west of the Blue Ridge expected to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds west of the Blue Ridge will predominantly remain easterly to southeasterly at around 5-10 mph. Overall, with surface high pressure maintaining influence over the region once again today, expect mostly sunny skies, and pleasant fall like temperatures across the region. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 AM EST Sunday... Key Message: 1) High pressure will shift east early in the week, allowing for gradual warmup as winds shift more from the southeast. 2) Dry weather forecast for Monday, with increasing chances for showers by Wednesday as a cold front approaches. 3) Will continue to watch for possible development of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Will start the workweek off with an upper ridge along the east coast of the U.S., while a deep trough/cutoff low digs near the Four Corner region. Closer to the surface, high pressure sliding east from coastal New England on Monday will maintain a cool east- northeasterly windflow in the morning that will shift more from the east-southeast as the day progresses. After a dry day, the increasingly southeasterly wind shift will begin to tap deeper moisture from the Carolina coast, making for increasing low clouds Monday night into Tuesday morning, possibly with drizzle or light showers developing along the crest of the Blue Ridge. This pattern of southeasterly windflow will hold in place through Wednesday night, allowing for increasing chances of disorganized shower activity by the middle of the week as a cold front approaches from the west. With upper level ridging holding in place through the period, temperatures will go through a gradual warming trend, with highs in the 60s on Monday, in the 60s to low 70s on Tuesday, and in the upper 60s to the 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s Monday night, and into the 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. By the time Wednesday night arrives, we`ll be keeping an eye out for the potential of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There`s low confidence at this point where this low pressure will track or how strong it will be. Will continue to monitor for any development of this low pressure as the week progresses. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM EST Sunday... Key Message: 1) A cold front will pass southward across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. 2) Likely dry for much of Thursday into Friday as high pressure passes across the Great Lakes. Increasing moisture for Saturday. 3) Temperatures expected to remain well above normal. A cold front will pass south across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday, resulting in a northerly wind shift as high pressure shifts east across the Great Lakes region, ushering in drier air that will diminish rainfall chances through Friday. However, rain chances will increase again heading into the weekend as deep low pressure across the southern Rockies begins to shift east across the central Plains, which will allow Gulf moisture to lift northward into the central U.S. Confidence remains low at this time as to how far east the moisture will advance or how much rainfall it will produce. Regardless, temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through the period, with afternoon highs generally in the mid 60s to the low 70s, while overnight lows will fall into the 40s and 50s. These temperatures are 10-15 degrees above normal for early November. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EST Sunday... VFR flight conditions are currently being observed across all terminals this evening. LWB could experience some MVFR to LIFR restrictions over the next several hours, and through sunrise as river valley fog may encroach into the terminals vicinity. This could similarly occur at BCB; however, restrictions are only expected to drop to MVFR levels, and confidence is not high in them developing. Outside of these restrictions at both sites, VFR conditions look to prevail at all other terminals. Northeasterly winds are expected to become easterly to southeasterly across the higher terrain terminals at around 5-10 knots; however, look to remain northeasterly at both DAN and LYH as wedging remains across the Piedmont. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Early next week will continue to see mainly VFR conditions, with morning fog possible at BCB and LWB each day. By Wednesday and Thursday, a frontal system approaches the region with showers possible. These will likely be confined to LWB/BLF, possibly lowering flight conditions under VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB/JCB NEAR TERM...EB SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...EB/BMG