461
FXUS61 KRNK 071806
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
206 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm moist airmass will allow for daily shower and
thunderstorm chances. An approaching front from the northwest
looks to stall near the area Tuesday onward which may allow for
increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Isolated showers and storms this afternoon with increasing
chances for Tuesday.

2) Heat indices could flirt with advisory levels for east
Piedmont Tuesday.

As the remnants of tropical cyclone Chantal push east of the area
near Delmarva, we should see a pocket of decreased deep layer
moisture but still enough surface based instability (generally 1500-
2500 J/kg) to allow for some convective triggering this afternoon.
CAMs are in pretty good agreement for coverage to remain pretty
isolated but with PWATs remaining high there could still be a
localized flooding threat from hydrometeor loading in cell
downdrafts. The far southeastern CWA received some high rainfall
amounts with the Chantal system last night so such antecedent
conditions would make the area more flood prone specifically in the
Caswell, SE Pittsylvania and southern Halifax county area.

A slow moving frontal boundary and enhanced moisture axis looks to
approach the area from the NW Tuesday. This and any impulses
traversing along the broad SW flow aloft could allow for more
widespread shower and storm development with diurnal heating. This
sets up almost cookie cutter daily development for the week with
little to no change in the airmass as it stalls or has slight
meandering.

Temps remain pretty warm with afternoon highs mainly in the low to
mid 90s for the Piedmont and mid to upper 80s for parts of the
mountains. The humid environment looks to result in heat indices
reaching above 100 in parts of the Piedmont Tuesday and may even
have some spotty locations near the 105 degree mark so a future
issuance of a heat advisory may be warranted mainly in the eastern
Piedmont but holding off for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Key Message:

1)Daily thunderstorms and showers for the rest of the week.

Confidence is growing for an active weather week filled with showers
and thunderstorms. A frontal system from the northwest will stall
over the Ohio River Valley for the foreseeable future, keeping
the warm and moist air mass over the Mid-Atlantic in place. A
ridge over the Deep South will begin to erode while a stronger
ridge over the Southwestern United States will slowly move
westward towards California as the week progresses. A trough
that is in between these two ridges will transport several
shortwaves of various strengths to the area to bring several
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Due to the forecast of
both ridges, the trough will begin to deteriorate late in the
week. Upper level winds will still be relatively zonal to
continue support for shortwave and storm system transit through
the Mid-Atlantic.

There are two concerns regarding these storm systems: severe weather
and flooding. Severe weather looks to be on the lower end with only
a Marginal Risk for the area on Wednesday due to a presence of 20-30
kt shear. Plenty of CAPE each day (1000-2000 J/kg) will support
scattered pulse storms, but the shear may permit a little more
organization with some of these storms. Similar CAPE/shear
conditions may return on Thursday, so it would not surprise me if at
least another Marginal Risk was issued for Thursday by tomorrow.

A relatively greater concern is the potential for flooding. Many
counties towards the southeast got a good soak from Tropical
Depression Chantal and repeated days of precipitation could lead to
eventual flooding later this week. PWATs are forecast to be between
1.5-2.0 inches which is a lot higher than the climatological average
of around 1.25 inches. The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal
Risk of Excessive Rainfall every day this week for most of the
region. Pulse storms would mean very narrow and specific areas would
be impacted so it is difficult to know with confidence at this
point what counties or cities would be more at risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Key Message:

1) Daily showers and thunderstorms continue into the foreseeable
future.

The weather pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms continues
into early next week. With no fronts expected to pass through, there
is nothing to move the warm and moist air mass away from the region.
CAPE is plenty and PWATs are forecast to stay high but with little
flow and shear, most of these storms are expected to be pulse based
and produce heavy rainfall. The flood risk may extend for additional
days because of this. The upper level ridge over the southwestern
CONUS is expected to still exist and keep its strength though it may
migrate a little more to the California Coast. Another ridge over
the Deep South may redevelop and spatially stretch across most of
the southern United States. This ridge may increase northward
towards the end of the forecast period, but until it does this most
of the overall upper level flow will maintain the train of
shortwaves and storm systems through the Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period with lower
vsbys possible with any showers or storms. Have tempo groups for
TSRA at BLF and LWB this afternoon and may see greater coverage
for perhaps all sites Tuesday afternoon. LWB could see some
typical morning fog and reduced vsbys/cigs. Should be daytime cu
coverage near 4-6 kft. Winds generally west to SW under 10 kts
during the daytime but some low end gusts are possible and any
storms could bring greater more VRB gusts. Winds light to calm
for overnight.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The forecast area then transitions back into a typical
summertime weather pattern with daily chance of showers/storms
during the peak heating hours each day starting Tuesday.
Morning fog will also be possible each day, especially at LWB
and BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AB/SH